The NAB Rural Commodities Index edged lower in September – down by 1.5% month-on-month in Australian dollar (AUD) terms. In US dollar terms, the index moved a touch higher, up by 0.2% - reflecting the impact of a stronger exchange rate.
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NAB Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 3.6% qoq in Q3.
Insight
The NAB Rural Commodities Index was unchanged in August, having remained around the same level (in Australian dollar terms) since June. When denominated in US dollar terms, the index was marginally weaker in August – down by 0.3% month-on-month.
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% in Q2
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The NAB Rural Commodities Index increased by 0.4% month on month in June, rising for the third consecutive month. The index is now around levels seen in February 2023.
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index declined in Q2
Insight
The NAB Rural Commodities Index continued its upwards momentum and increased 1.4% month-on-month in May. The index is around levels seen in February 2023.
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 12.3% in 2024 and a further 12.6% in 2025 – led by softer prices for bulk commodities (iron ore and coal).
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Consumption up but growth still slow
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Following a slow end to 2023, a slow start to 2024
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We see our NAB commodity index falling substantially in 2024, despite higher forecasts for base metals and gold.
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Slower global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 set to constrain commodity demand
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Growth slows in line with NAB’s forecast
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024
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A slow end to 2023
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