Business Research & Insights

We expect to see a modest slowing in growth across 2025 to 3.1%

In line with our expectations

We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to move slightly higher in Q4

The NAB Rural Commodities Index edged lower in September – down by 1.5% month-on-month in Australian dollar (AUD) terms. In US dollar terms, the index moved a touch higher, up by 0.2% - reflecting the impact of a stronger exchange rate.

NAB Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 3.6% qoq in Q3.

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was unchanged in August, having remained around the same level (in Australian dollar terms) since June. When denominated in US dollar terms, the index was marginally weaker in August – down by 0.3% month-on-month.

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% in Q2

The NAB Rural Commodities Index increased by 0.4% month on month in June, rising for the third consecutive month. The index is now around levels seen in February 2023.

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index declined in Q2

The NAB Rural Commodities Index continued its upwards momentum and increased 1.4% month-on-month in May. The index is around levels seen in February 2023.

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 12.3% in 2024 and a further 12.6% in 2025 – led by softer prices for bulk commodities (iron ore and coal).

Consumption up but growth still slow