The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.
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Markets Today – The Cool Out
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
Insights, Trends & Case Studies
Markets Today – We Found Love
Fed's Waller inches open the US rate cut door
Podcast
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Markets Today – Route Sixty Six
The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – I get knocked down, but I get up again
Another choppy night on bond markets with 10yr yields on net little changed and the curve twist flattening slightly.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
It was a busy 24 hours for data flow globally. Yields partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI bond rally, while equities have held onto gains.
Markets Today – Slow
US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Markets Today – Torn
Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
Markets Today – Just Give Me a Reason
Quiet data wise, but some notable moves in markets.
Markets Today – When the Night Falls Quiet
It was a quiet start to the week for news flow, which was mostly reflected in market movements, though yields are generally higher.
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – On Hold
The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.
The AUD in October 2023
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Shake It Off (Taylor’s Version)
Risk sentiment started the week on firmer footing. Equities are higher, the US dollar is lower, and US yields were higher. Brent oil lost 3%, back below $88 a barrel.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
FX Market Update – 25th October 2023
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
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Markets Today – European Disappointment
Weaker European PMIs, and potentially some unwind of yesterday’s move, have seen a stronger US dollar the main mover overnight, up 0.7% on the DXY.
Markets Today – Good Mood (in bonds at least)
A quiet night for data, but a big night for bonds.
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Carefully
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
Markets Today – Here I Go Again
Strong US retail sales sees yields rocket – 10yr yield +14bps to 4.84%
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful
Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]
Podcast
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Be Alright
Global markets were relatively stable overnight ahead of tonight’s key risk event of US CPI.
Markets Today – Hong Kong Garden
Lower US bond yields and softer US dollar lift AUD back above 0.64
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – Breathe
The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD in September 2023
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
Markets Today – Pour It Up
The sell-off in global bonds continued with fresh cycle highs being set for longer-term yields. The
Markets Today – Rocket Man
The BoE is the latest to put rates on hold. But are they done? JBWere’s Sally Auld says its not safe to assume it’s over for any central bank.
Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Todays podcast ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]
Markets Today – Snooze
It was a subdued market reaction to the highly anticipated US CPI print.
Markets Today – I’ll Oil Wells Love You
Ahead of US CPI tonight, oil prices have ratcheted higher as OPEC+ cuts continue to bite
Markets Today – Breathe
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
Markets Today – Nothing Gonna Break my Stride
US equities manage a marginal gain on Friday, but lower over the week and yields edge higher.
Markets Today – Slow Ride
Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.
Markets Today – Top of the World
A rise in Services activity last month confirms the US economy still sits firmly on top of the world
AMW – Labour Markets – Progress on rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia
In this Weekly, we take stock of progress rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia, finding significant progress has been made on a range of indicators even without a sizeable lift in unemployment rates
Markets Today – Constant Repeat
A softer Caixin Services PMI soured the mood yesterday, with the USD broadly stronger and the AUD the worst G10 performer
Markets Today – Holiday
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
Markets Today – The Best
Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried
The AUD in August 2023
The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents
Markets Today – ‘Aint No Mountain High Enough (or is there?)
Overnight, the BoE’s Pill references ‘Matterhorn’ versus ‘Table Top Mountain’ approaches to monetary policy
Markets Today – Hot and Cold
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.
Markets Today – Waltzing Matilda(s)
Aussie retail sales were stronger than expected in July, but World Cup fever was a factor says NAB’s Ray Attrill
Markets Today – Play it Safe
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
Markets Today – Artificial Light
Caution prevails in front of Jackson Hole; stocks down, bond yields back up, AUD back lower
Markets Today – Falling
Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.
Markets Today – Marking Time
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
Markets Today – Back to the Grind
US yields resumed their grind higher to start the new week, though there was little news to speak of, while US equities where higher.
Markets Today – I Got You Babe
Yields lower on Friday, but still close to recent cycle highs
Markets Today – Doom Loop
It’s been onwards and upwards for global bond yields overnight, and AUD has spent time below 64 cents
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]
Markets Today – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A stark contrast Tuesday between strong US retail sales and very weak China data
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Markets Today – No Green Light
A higher-than-expected US PPI print contributed to higher yields, while equities ended the week on a muted note.
Markets Today – I Ain’t Worried
US Core CPI just 0.160% m/m and 3m annualised rate now 3.1%
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.
Markets Today – Holiday
Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.
Markets Today – Soft Parade
Bond sell-off reverses on softer US payrolls
Markets Today – Schadenfreude
BoE lifts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, to limited market reaction. US payrolls tonight
Markets Today – Higher Ground
Yields rise, US 10yr hits 4.12% before easing back to 4.08%, highest since Nov 2022
Markets Today – Pump It
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
The AUD in July 2023
US, China and local inflation news drove much of the AUD volatility in July
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).
Markets Today – Big in Japan (or perhaps not)
Friday’s BoJ announcements made a bigger initial impression on global bond markets than FX
Markets Today – Better than you
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
Markets Today – The Last Time (or not)
The US FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25-5.50% as universally expected.
Markets Today – Devil Inside
AUD approaches 0.68, buoyed by China stimulus news and RMB gains
Markets Today – Shivers
Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.
Markets Today – Workin’ For A Livin’
US yields higher with Jobless Claims lower than expected
Markets Today – Good thing
Another bond rally, this time in the UK with inflation coming in softer than expected.
Markets Today – You’re the Voice
Central bankers globally seem to have switched to a more measured tone recently. Overnight tapas
Markets Today – Slow and low
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
Markets Today – Getting better
A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.
Markets Today – Paradise
Yields tumbled and risk assets soared as US CPI came in much softer than expected
Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
Markets Today – Slower but far from slow
Payrolls failed to deliver the upside surprise feared following strong data earlier in the week, seeing some pullback in the USD and short-end yields on Friday.
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.
Markets Today – Should I Stay or Should I Go
A quiet night overnight given shortened pre-holiday trade in the US ahead of Independence Day today.
The AUD in June 2023
The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Markets Today – I Knew You Were Trouble
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views; BoJ reiterates dovish stance
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
AMW – What assumptions to use for my 2023-24 budget?
This week we examine some possible budget assumptions for Australian growth, inflation, wages, interest rates and the $A for 2023-24 as well as the context, thinking behind and risks to the forecasts
Markets Today – Against the Grain
Quiet start to week with no market fall-out from weekend Russia news. Weaker Yuan a focus.
Markets Today – PMI Slowdown
PMIs on Friday showed Eurozone output growth close to stalling, seeing Europe lead yields lower and the euro fall.
Markets Today – Fifty Fifty
The BoE surprises market with 50bps, Norges Bank less so with its 50bps. SNB opts for a ‘hawkish' 25bps
Markets Today – No relief
Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today
Markets Today – Weather With You
Soft risk sentiment overall last night which was mostly China driven.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
Markets Today – King of the World
AUD ends a big if short local week at the top of the G10 currency pile, AUD/USD +2% w/w
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
ASFA supports our 11th Super FX hedging survey
Jamie Bonic, Head of FX Investor Sales APAC, and Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research, joined ASFA to discuss the launch of NAB’s Super FX hedging survey.
Markets Today – Two of a Kind
Fed pauses as expected but ‘dot plot’ adds two, not one, more rate rises to 2023
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
Markets Today – When Bad Does Good
Jump in US jobless claims supports lowers US yields and US$; S&P500 back in bull market
Markets Today – My [Hikes] Will Go On
The BoC shocked markets overnight, hiking by 25bps to 4.75%.
Markets Today – Consequences
It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.
Markets Today – Rebel Without a Pause?
Markets go into today’s RBA decision ascribing a roughly 65% chance to a pause
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
Markets Today – Mr Brightside
A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).
The AUD in May 2023
The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.
Markets Today – Pause for Thought
The AUD had fallen to a new post November 2022 following more disappointing China data
NAB Superannuation FX hedging survey set for launch
NAB presents detailed insights into superannuation investment behaviours and trends in our comprehensive survey of Australian Superannuation Funds undertaken every two years and opening again for 2023.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
Markets Today – Holiday
Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.
Markets Today – Now That I Found You
US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.
Markets Today – Diamond in the rough
The US dollar extended its positive streak and yields globally were higher despite mixed economic data as AI-related tech saw US equites higher
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Still no sign of breakthrough on US debt ceiling talks, souring risk sentiment.
Markets Today – Tug of War
The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of significant market moves.
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
Markets Today – High Hopes
Hopes for a deal on the debt ceiling improved.
Markets Today – Waiting on the World to Change
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of new news or top-tier data.
Markets Today – Comeback Kid
Markets were spoked on Friday by an unexpected rise in US consumer inafltion expectations
Markets Today – Dead Man’s Curve
Latest US yield curve movements are giving an even stronger signal of imminent US recession
Markets Today – Could this be enough?
US yields were lower and the dollar stronger with the FOMC increasing rates by 25bp as expected and dropping the expectation for further hikes.
Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.
Markets Today – Resolution
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.
The AUD in April 2023
After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents
Markets Today – A lot to digest
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
Markets Today – Where’s North from Here?
Softer US growth but stubbornly sticky prices has seen US yields higher, while US equities recorded their biggest gain since January.
Markets Today – No Help Coming
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
Markets Today – First (Republic) Time
Us equities haven fallen sharply, bond yields are lower and AUD/USD is back near 0.66, ahead of CPI this morning.
Markets Today – Titanium
A quiet end to a choppy week, with some intra-day volatility following stronger than expected PMIs.
Markets Today – The Reason
Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.
Markets Today – Shake it up
The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations
Markets Today – Some like it hot
A quiet overnight session despite the plethora of earnings reports.
Markets Today – Empire State of Mind
The uplift in US bond yields continued overnight, supporting the US dollar but not hurting equities
Markets Today – Is it really so bad?
Stronger than expected US data pushed US yields higher and supported a broadly stronger US dollar on Friday.
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]
Markets Today – Good, but good enough?
US treasuries retraced most of their post-CPI rally overnight with core CPI coming in as expected.
Markets Today – Waiting for you
It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today
Constructing a net zero investment strategy
A NAB panel explores the practical implications involved for superannuation funds in their net zero investment ambitions.
Report
The AUD in March 2023
Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.
Markets Today – Love so soft
A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).
Markets Today – What’s old is new again
It’s a third successive day of relative calm across markets, though an upside surprise to German CPI has seen European yields push higher.
Markets Today – It’s All Good
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
Markets Today – Relative Calm
There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.
Markets Today – Everything’s Gonna be Alright
Bond yields are sharply higher overnight, improved sentiment towards the banking sector one key driver
Markets Today – Night of hunters
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
Markets Today – Janet
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
Markets Today – So Yesterday
It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.
Markets today – ECB sticks to its guns (sort of)
The ECB delivered on its 50bps rate promise but scraps forward guidance. Meanwhile the US’ First Republic Bank gets a $30bn deposit injection from other banks
Markets Today – Panic on the dance floor
Banking sector turmoil is back to the fore driving all markets, today centred on Credit Suisse.
Markets Today – Are we out of the woods yet?
Bond yields rose sharply on the developing assessment of turmoil in US banking, helped by but largely overshadowing a stubbornly strong US CPI.
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Markets Today: All for the lack of tuppence
The collapse of SVB, the 16th largest bank in the US with $209bn in assets (as at 31 Dec 2022), shook markets on Thursday and Friday. That
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
Markets Today – Get Set
Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.
Markets Today: Warning Sign
The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.
Markets Today: Hawkish Holzmann
Hawkish comments from ECB’s Holzmann send European yields higher in an otherwise quiet night for news flow
Markets Today: I Feel Better
The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.
Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday
The AUD in February 2023
AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.
Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me
A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.
Markets Today: Too Hot
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
Markets Today: Edgy
US equities stage a late recovery, but remain edgy
Markets Today: Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
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The AUD in January 2023
AUD/USD began the year at 0.6802 and ended January at 0.7056, a 2.5 cents or 3.7% gain.
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).
Markets Today: US stocks hit by reality check, Aussie CPI today
European and US PMIs were the main data flow overnight.
Markets Today: Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tech stocks lead gains in US equities. NASDAQ up just under 2%.
Markets Today: Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
5% Netflix post-earnings pop helps drive best day for S&P500 in two weeks
Markets Today: Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
USD softer despite ‘risk-off’ market tone.
Markets Today: Central banks hold out despite weaker data
Very weak US retail and industrial production adds to the tumble in yields
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
MT: Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
US out for MLK day holiday. S&P futures little changed
Markets Today: Quietly confident
US equities managed to claw back into the green on Friday to extend the strong start to the year.
Markets Today: Heading in the right direction
US CPI cools as expected, but with even more encouraging details.
Markets Today: Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Ahead of CPI tonight US Treasuries (and bonds globally) have rallied, 10-year US notes off 5bps (3bps of that seen in the Tokyo session) and 2s down just under 2bps.
Markets Today: Early year optimism
Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
BoJ stuns markets with a 0% YCC tolerance band widening…
The AUD in December 2022
AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
The BoJ thus takes out our award for the most unpredictable central bank of 2022.
Markets Today: Last minutes before Christmas
Equity sentiment has not been helped by a decent sell-off in core global bonds.
MT: US services slide; China promises a J-curve recovery
Recession risks were highlighted on Friday with the US S&P Global Services PMI again in contractionary territory.
Markets Today: Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Hawkish ECB rhetoric post 50bps rate rise spooks risk markets
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
MT: Christmas comes early with cooler US inflation
CPI comes in cool at 0.1% m/m and 7.1% y/y, two tenths below consensus
MT: US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
A distinctly cautious air prevails in front of tonight’s all-important US CPI release and tomorrow’s FOMC.
MT: US producer prices spark inflation worries ahead of the Fed
Solid US PPI cements apprehension ahead of the US CPI & FOMC
MT: Slight risk bounce as US markets “clutch at straws”
It was a quiet night for markets devoid of any top-tier data or news flow ahead of key risk events next week (of US CPI, FOMC, ECB).
Markets Today: Bouncebackability
The Bank of Canada rose 50bps, the sixth consecutive increase, and took the target rate to 4.25%.
MT: No surprises from RBA but BoC on a knife-edge
The RBA increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.1% and continues to guide that “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead".
Markets Today: Fed’s terminal rate, heading higher?
WSJ’s Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos wrote overnight if CPI on Tuesday comes in hot then the Fed could consider another 50bp increase in February.
Markets Today: The Central Bank Dilemma – is it working?
The dollar was softer and US yields lower over the past week as markets both pared terminal rate pricing and priced in more cuts from mid 2023.
MT: What did markets like about Powell’s speech?
Markets hold, and more importantly extend yesterday’s post-Powell moves.
The AUD in November 2022
The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.
Markets Today: Powell slightly less than very hawkish
Markets were relatively muted ahead of Powell’s remarks with US yields and the Dollar were tracking a little higher and equities a little weaker.
MT: China calms down, European inflation eases
China vaccination push sees Hang Seng gains extended to 5%+ by the close
Markets Today: ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
MT: Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
The single biggest piece of market-moving economic news overnight has come via the US S&P Global PMIs, which slumped to 47.6 from 50.4, well below the 50.0 consensus.
Markets Today: One more pivot before Thanksgiving
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.
Markets Today: A rare dull day
Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.
Markets Today: Tighter than ever
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.
Markets Today: A step too far
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
Markets Today: A slight reality check
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
Markets Today: False Hopes?
US CPI, US political gridlock (maybe) and China covid policy tweaks...
Markets Today: A welcome relief
It has been a super risk positive night courtesy of a big downward surprise in the US CPI release.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
Republican ‘red wave’ failed to materialise, but still expect slim House majority
Markets Today: Downturns, mid-terms, no U-turns
The NAB Business Survey showed Conditions falling just one point to +22 to remain at very elevated levels, above the pre-pandemic highs for the series.
Markets Today: An end to China’s Zero COVID, or not?
Speculation about China reopening continues to add some market volatility with WSJ reporting Chinese leaders were considering reopening steps getting some notice.
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.
Markets Today: A Tale of Two Britains
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting continues to reverberate through markets.
MT: No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
FOMC Statement hints at reduced pace of tightening ahead…
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
The AUD in October 2022
Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: The Bank That Stops Inflation, eventually
NAB has pencilled in a 25bp hike, we also think there is a real risk that the RBA hikes by 50bps, and that this risk is higher than the 22% chance that markets are currently pricing.
MT: Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Big gains in US equities on Friday help extend rally for a second week
MT: ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Markets Today: Cries of ‘Pivot!’ as BoC slows hikes
Yields are generally lower globally as the earlier run up in expectations for central bank tightening are pared a little further. A hike of ‘only’ 50bp from the BoC helping that sentiment.
MT: Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Last night’s first Federal Budget under Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers contained no fireworks, falling fully in line with pre-Budget media briefings.
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.
Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.
Markets Today: Tails(s) Wag Dog(s)
The selloff in bonds has seen a ‘reversal of the reversal’.
Markets Today: Brits Big U Turn, America Buys the Dip
Another big UK fiscal U-turn and positive earnings from BofA boosted global risk appetite last night.
Markets Today: Where does it end?
Rise in 1y ahead US inflation expectations spooks markets
MT: Massive swings as US inflation stays high
Volatile overnight session sees risk on, risk off then risk on again
Markets Today: Less jobs before Fed stops
UK markets remain at the epicentre of global market volatility
Markets Today: Don’t panic Mr. Bailey
Bailey in Washington says bond purchases will end as scheduled on Friday
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
Markets Today: Tight labour, hawkish banks, angry Putin
It was ‘good news is bad news’ for US Payrolls which were a touch better than expected and seen as too solid to support a pivot narrative.
Markets Today: Even less pivot hope, from Paris
In Australia there are two macro developments worth watching, Seek new job ads and Consumption imports in the August trade balance.
MT: Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Another volatile session in markets; US equities opened lower, not helped by anticipated news of a bigger oil cut supply agreement by OPEC +.
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.
The AUD in September 2022
The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.
Markets Today: No slowdown yet: Euro inflation and US core PCE
US equites fall on Friday to close out a 3rd consecutive negative quarter
MT: UK calmer, US stocks fall, yields rising, hawkish Fed/ECB
In a positive development the OBR will provide preliminary costings of the UK’s fiscal package on 7 October, instead of the previously signalled deadline of November 23 (the same day as the Budget).
Markets Today: UK ticked off by IMF, BoE goes back to QE
Bank of England has pledged to buy up to £5bn of longer dated gilts each day for up to 13 days (£65bn total) with a motive of protecting the UK pension industry.
MT: US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?
UK rates continue to push higher
Markets Today: Unruly Britannia
Fallout from UK mini-budget continues.
Markets Today: The pound hammered, will it last?
Epicentre of current market turmoil shifts across the Atlantic to UK on Friday
Markets Today: Central bank overload
BoE, SNB and Norges Bank follow the Fed’s +75bps with 50bps, 75bps, 50bps respectively
Markets Today: 0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff
Fed hikes 75bps as expected, looks for 125bps in ’22 then 25bps more in ‘23
MT: Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums
A sourer tone took hold over the past 24 hours, with equities lower and haven currencies, including the dollar, stronger.
Markets Today: Fears the Fed will ‘keep at it’ for a while yet
US yields continued to push higher ahead of the FOMC
MT: Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays
Last week will be marked out as one of the more tumultuous for financial markets since the early days of the pandemic, says NAB's Ray Attrill.
Markets Today: Heading higher and taking longer
Volatility has come roaring back in Thursday’s offshore session.
Markets Today: The day after. No big bounce.
After recording hefty losses post the US CPI release on Tuesday, US equity markets closed with modest gains.
Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]
Markets Today: The risk of rising risk sentiment
Positive risk sentiment ahead of US CPI tonight.
Markets Today: Fed still pushing, BoE pushes back
Risk appetite improves despite hawkish Fed talk
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation
Markets Today: High hopes of smaller hikes
A volatile night where earlier price action in Asia was largely reversed.
Markets Today: More work for Fed, UK’s massive Truss Fund
A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline
The AUD in August 2022
The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.
MT: Will strong jobs numbers add to the Fed’s battle?
The bond sell-off shows no signs of abating with a stronger than expected US ISM Manufacturing helping to drive the US 10yr yield up.
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Markets Today: Euro inflation hits new high
August has been a terrible month for balance fund investors with no diversification gains from holding a portfolio of equities and bonds.
Markets Today: More good news, that’s actually bad news
Goldman’s noted inflation could hit 22.4% y/y in the UK in early 2023 if gas prices don’t moderate and if there is little in the way of cost of living relief.
Markets Today: Aussie yields push higher
Following a negative lead from Asia, US and EU equities have begun the new week on the back foot.
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Markets Today: Investors respond to Powell comments
Fed chair Jay Powell’s address to the Kansas Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday was short and as far as equity market investors were concerned, bitter not sweet.
Markets Today: Peering into Jackson hole
Another day spent in anticipation of Powell’s speech tonight
Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
MT: Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Composite PMI sub-50 everywhere in the world bar UK; US worst of all.
Markets Today: European gas prices push ever higher
Markets are apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday
Markets Today: Shopping to the very end
NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.
Markets Today: Fed still trying to show they won’t give in
Following yesterday’s FOMC Minutes overnight we’ve heard from FOMC members wanting the Funds Rate up to 3.75-4.0% this year and questioning why you’d want to drag rate rises out into next year.
Markets Today: UK’s sticker shock inflation drives caution
In Australia, wages data for the 3 months to May disappointed most forecasters, though the result was in line with the RBA August SoMP (and NAB) forecast.
AMW: Hot inflation, what does this mean for CPI?
This week we expand on the hot inflation reads seen in the NAB Business Survey and what this may mean for CPI pressures in Australia, particularly for Q3.
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.
Markets Today: Slow boat from China
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since early February 2022 with falls of around 4% in part due to weaker China demand.
MT: A positive outlook, apart from the downturn
Equities continued their relentless rise, brushing off the inflation expectations data and hawkish Fed rhetoric
Markets Today: Not convinced by the Fed
The San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly warned it is too early to ‘declare victory’ over inflation.
Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.
Markets Today: Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain.
As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.
MT: The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories
A few hours on from Nancy Pelosi leaving Taiwan and markets have almost forgotten she ever came. Equity market have recovered their poise, a tech sector rally seeing the NASDAQ close at its highest level since 4 May.
MT: Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done
In Australia, the RBA met yesterday and raised the official cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% as expected, the third consecutive 50bps increase to be at its highest level since April 2016.
The AUD in July 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.
MT: Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa
Data releases over the past 24 hours have provided further evidence the global economy is slowing. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI confirmed that China’s reopening rebound is over.
MT: No inflation slowdown, just wishful thinking
US economic data on Friday underscored the inflation challenge facing the Fed
MT: When is a recession not really a recession?
ECB’s Visco says “there is a risk of a recession” and that ECB policy can’t drive down gas prices.
Markets Today: Fed hikes 75bp, no forward guidance
The Fed delivered a unanimous 75bp hike as widely anticipated.
MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.
Markets Today: Then there was one (turbine)
Kremlin confirms 20% cut of gas to Europe from Wednesday. Gas up 9%
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014
MT: Gas will trickle, Draghi will go, ECB will hike
Draghi’s government looks set to fall after three key parties failed to support him in a confidence vote which could complicate the ECB plans to deliver details on its new anti-fragmentation tool.
Markets Today: Markets set for a tougher ECB
ECB now seen hiking by 50bps tomorrow and then again in September
Markets Today: Gas to Europe unlikely this week
Oil is the standout mover, Brent +$4.50 and WTI crude +$4.60 on reports Saudi Arabia won’t be pumping any more oil
Markets Today: A Good Friday but a crunch week for Europe
Risk sentiment rallied on Friday with a better than expected US retail sales print and positive earnings from Citigroup lifting equities
Markets Today: Aussies Take Up Jobs as Draghi Tries to Quit
Australian employment data yesterday was showed a tighter labour market than the RBA had been expecting with the unemployment rate plummeting four tenths to 3.5% , a new 48-year low.
Markets Today: US Inflation rises, everything is in play
Bank of Canada surprises with ‘front-loaded’ 100bps rate rise
Markets Today: Freaking out over inflation
Risk off again overnight as recession fears intensify
MT: China flares up, Putin flexes more, US Dollar higher
Risk off ahead of a big week for data, partly driven mainly by China virus news
MT: Healthy jobs data bad news for the economy
US June non-farm payroll employment 372k vs. 265k expected.
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope, except for Boris
Risk sentiment improved over the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Significant risk, still?
Higher US yields together with a further drop in the EUR sees the USD in DXY terms now at its highest since September 2002.
MT: Oil Dives, Bonds Rally and Recession Fears grow
Brent oil prices are down 17% since 14 June and have the potential to drive some welcome relief on headline inflation prints.
Markets Today: Australia, faring better than most
Europe remains stuck in the middle between the Russia/Ukraine crisis and a weakening global economy
Markets Today: Independence Day: Recession Resurgence
After a dismal first half, US equities start H2-22 with a positive tone
The AUD in June 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.
Markets Today: Understanding how little we understand
Core global yields have been the big market movers overnight with European bonds leading the decline in yields.
Markets Today: Less US confidence, tough talking ECB
Weaker US consumer confidence dents equities
Markets Today: Heading for a choppy end to Q2
US equity markets have begun the new week on the back foot with a clear lack of conviction.
Markets Today: Is bad news good news these days?
It was a great day for US stocks on Friday, with two-thirds of the mid-month sell-off now retraced.
Markets Today: Unconditional commitment, come what may
Despite softer PMIs and still-hawkish messaging from the Fed, US equities managed to turn around intraday.
Markets Today: Powell admits recession is possible
Recession or hard landing fears have taken a firmer hold on most markets in the past 24 hours.
Markets Today: Brighter days ahead
Some relief in equities with a strong bounce back from last week’s decline
Markets Today: Is the RBA preparing to go harder?
The RBA is front and centre in local markets this morning.
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.
Markets Today: Markets go cuckoo as the Swiss clock a half percent hike
The Bank of England rose rate by 25bps and left its options wide open on future moves
Markets Today: A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen
Fed delivers 75bps rate rise, sees 50 or 75 most likely at next meeting
Markets Today: The day before the dots
Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting we have seen an increase in market volatility across Equity, Rates and FX.
Markets Today: Markets Panic after US inflation surprise
A hot US CPI report and signs of inflation expectations de-anchoring on Friday has seen yields surge, risk assets sell off, and recession talk rise.
Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.
Markets Today: Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen
Rise in oil prices fuels inflationary concerns and the need for central banks to increase their hawkishness.
Markets Today: RBA, far from business as usual
RBA surprises (most) for second month running with 50bps Cash Rate rise to 0.85%
Markets Today: Rates jump, Boris’ near miss, RBA today
Yields rose notably in what was a quiet night for data and events.
Markets Today: Get ready for RBA, ECB and US CPI
Markets took the strong US payroll gains on Friday as affirming the near-term path for continued Fed tightening.
Markets Today: More oil, weaker jobs growth. Equities live on hope.
A positive day for risk sentiment ahead of US Payrolls tonight on no new news
Markets Today: Rates boosted as US data support aggressive Fed hikes
Reaction to a strong set of US data releases has been the main story overnight
The AUD in May 2022
AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).
Markets Today: EU sanctions, more in the pipeline?
Inflation is back in focus with European inflation at its highest ever level of 8.1% y/y helping rates extend yesterday’s selloff.
Markets Today: German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out
Brent oil recorded its 8-consecutive day of price increases, supported by expectations of a China reopening in addition to the expected EU Russian oil ban.
Markets Today: A piggy bank backed recovery
After having moved briefly into bear market territory the previous Friday, last Friday saw the S&P500 up by its largest weekly gain so far this year.
Markets Today: Equities and bonds markets divided
US equities had a strong night with the S&P500 +2.0% and NASDAQ 2.7%.
Markets Today: Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation
The market found some relief on the notion that the FOMC Minutes revealed a broad consensus for 50bps hikes in June and July and the possibility for a pause later in the year.
Markets Today: Markets Snap Out of It
Monday’s upbeat sentiment was short-lived with falls in equities and yields overnight.
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, well, for today anyway
A more positive risk backdrop begins the new week. US equities are higher, the S&P500 up 1.9%, extending a turnaround after dipping into bear market territory intraday on Friday.
Markets Today: New Australian government, same global concerns
The S&P500 falls into bear market terrain Friday before late day pull-up
Markets Today: Who can slow down the slowdown?
Although employment growth disappointed yesterday, and along with wages data from earlier in the week, remains consistent with a rate rise of 25bp by the RBA in June.
Markets Today: Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation
The S&P500 high to low fall since the early January high puts it down 19% year to date and although not officially in bear market territory yet, looks to be only a matter of time.
Markets Today: China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working
The UK's unemployment rate fell to it's lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.
Markets Today: Markets tossed back and forth in a sea of uncertainty
The biggest news overnight is commodities, oil prices are up, which threatens to prolong the inflation narrative.
Markets Today: One day when fears eased, for a bit
US Consumer Sentiment fell further than expected to be at its lowest level since August 2011 and with consumer confidence so low, the risk of recession is rising.
Markets Today: A world of worry
Risk assets remained out of favour as concerns over inflation and recession risk continued to dominate.
Markets Today: US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained
Another volatile session in markets with an upward surprise in the April US inflation data release adding an extra layer of uncertainty
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of reason
Decline in inflation expectations drive core global bond yields lower with further fall in oil prices helping the move.
Markets Today: Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm
The ongoing theme of mounting growth concerns against a backdrop of central bank tightening is continuing to drive market movements.
Markets Today: Are markets running scared?
The current debate in Markets is whether the Fed would be willing to let the economy slip into recession to tame inflation.
Markets Today: Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit
Inflation is now forecast to peak at over 10% this year in the UK
Markets Today: Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head
Powell comments that 75bps isn’t something the FOMC is actively considering and that 50bps is on the table for the next couple of meetings
Markets Today: RBA loses a little patience
The RBA yesterday increased the cash rate target by 25bp to 0.35% and said it will do what is necessary to return inflation to the band
Markets Today: Breaking the Three Percent Barrier
US 10-year Treasuries have just breached the psychological 3% barrier for the first time since late November 2018 in what has been a further bear steepening of the US curve
The AUD in April 2022
Sentiment toward the AUD went from hero to zero in April.
Markets Today: The week central banks get serious
The NASDAQ recorded its worst monthly performance in more than a decade.
Markets Today: A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet
A wild ride in FX markets over the past 24 hours
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.
Markets Today: Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria
The World Bank has warned the war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s (referencing the 1973 oil embargo).
Markets Today: Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible
There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week.
Markets Today: European bond yields rise sharply
Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks.
Markets Today: A temporary change in direction
Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it?
Markets Today: Bond yields and equities both rise sharply
It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bond yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first?
Markets Today: A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike
Global yields continued their March higher over the Easter period with the US 10yr yield hitting a fresh cycle of 2.88%, its highest since 2018.
Markets Today: Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down
Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal.
Markets Today: A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation
US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets.
Markets Today: Stocks hit as yields rise higher still
Bond yields continue to climb with risk assets now coming under pressures.
Markets Today: Rates push ever higher as food prices soar
No respite from rising Treasury yields – 10s up another 4bps to 2.70% +32bps on week further hurting tech. stocks/NASDAQ vs other indices and boosting USD DXY index to 100.
Markets Today: Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk
The reaction to the Fed minutes early yesterday morning continued to dominate markets overnight.
Markets Today: Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later
FOMC Minutes reveal plans for much faster and more aggressive balance sheet reduction than 2017-2019
Markets Today: No patience left at RBA
RBA’s April meeting yesterday left policy on hold at 0.1% but underwent a substantial rewrite to the post meeting statement.
Markets Today: Crimes, curves and patience
Talk of Europe restricting Russian oil and gas has re-surfaced, driving oil prices higher
Markets Today: Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face
Eurozone inflation printed a new record high with ECB hawks calling for policy action.
The AUD in March 2022
AUD volatility picked up in March, almost all accounted for by Global factors.
Markets Today: Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today
The main news overnight is the US decision to release 1m barrels a day for 6 months from their strategic petroleum reserve
Markets Today: Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars
ECB Lagarde warning of supply and uncertainty shocks from the Ukraine war.
Markets Today: Europe boosted by peace hopes
Last night’s Federal Budget contained few surprises and won’t be a big influence on markets this morning.
Markets Today: The divided story of rate expectations
It has been a nervous start to the new week with big moves seen in rates, oil and FX markets.
Markets Today: Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion
Economists outdo each other for Fed hikes with Citi calling four 50 basis point hikes back to back
Markets Today: American markets doing well because they are not Europe
Investors are showing a preference for US equities with all three major indices enjoying a decent rebound after yesterday’s decline.
Markets Today: Markets support the Fed’s balancing act
Yields continue to rise with US 10yr now +9.6bps to 2.39%.
Markets Today: Powell talking faster than fast
US bond yields march higher pre and post Powell speech
Markets Today: Peace hopes and understanding
AUD/USD closed above 0.74 for the first time this year, cementing its position as the world’s strongest G10 currency year to date.
Markets Today: BoE far more cautious than the Fed
Russia makes USD bond payments, adding to a sense of hope on Russia/Ukraine
Markets Today: A far from transitory Fed
US Fed lifts cash rate 25bps, as expected
AMW: Inflation expectations mean CBs need to be hawkish
In this Weekly we explore how central banks might balance the two conflicting forces – inflation expectations key according to Fed speak.
Markets Today: China hit by COVID and Russian relationship
A switch of market focus from Ukraine to China (and Hong Kong)
Markets Today: Will China pick a side?
Yields have soared even as commodity prices have fallen.
Markets Today: Getting close to the edge
Friday was a day of contrasting fortunes for US and EU equity markets.
Markets Today: ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales
The ECB has surprised markets with an accelerated QE unwinding plan
Markets Today: Risk on, but so too is the war
War still rages, but Eurozone stocks and EUR roar back to life
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy
AMW: Russia/Ukraine update: adding to existing price pressures
Brent oil is up 30% on the week to US$130 a barrel and wheat, thermal coal and gas prices have also surged.
Markets Today: Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety
Germany rejects proposed US, EU embargo on Russian oil imports
Markets Today: Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion
Risk sentiment was hammered on Friday with sharp falls in stocks and a large rally in bonds
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories
NAB talk to ASFA about its 10th Biennial Super FX Survey Results
Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill and Director, Currency Overlay Solutions, Mike Symonds discuss the results of our 10th Biennial Superannuation FX Hedging survey with ASFA.
The AUD in February 2022
Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.
AMW: Ukraine/Russia, implications for economies, central banks and Australia
History suggests Russia’s actions in the Ukraine may result in only a short-lived episode of risk aversion with contemporary macro themes eventually reasserting themselves.
Markets Today: Ukraine war ratchets up risk
Risk sentiment craters (S&P500 -1.3%) as the Russia/Ukraine situation has no sign of ending
Markets Today: Moderate contagion, so far
News from Ukraine remain bleak with Russia Ukraine talks yielding no resolution while fighting rages on.
Markets Today: A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis
Markets are opening up to headlines that ‘Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on ‘special alert’.
Markets Today: Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s ‘Squalid Venture’
Biden announces range of sanctions on Russia, but not including SWIFT.
Markets Today: Don’t Panic!
Ukraine/Russia tensions continue, no further military escalation apart from cyberattacks
Markets Today: Biden’s sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’
Restrained market reactions so far (bar oil) to Russia-Ukraine developments…
Markets Today: Putin supports Donbass powder keg
Geopolitical tension lifted overnight with President Putin formally recognising the two Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and signing aid and cooperation agreements.
Markets Today: More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty
US President Biden is convinced Russia has decided to attack Ukraine
Markets Today: Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Yesterday’s glimpses of risk off vibes have intensified over the past 24 hours with Russia Ukraine tensions the main culprit.
Markets Today: Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight
The standout data point overnight was US Retail Sales, which came in well above consensus expectations.
Markets Today: Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)
President Putin spoke to the media saying that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but then added that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously .
Markets Today: Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’
The S&P is back in the red (-0.5%) following reports of satellite images being circulated purportedly showing Russian troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions.
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
Russia/Ukraine headlines weighed heavily on risk sentiment late Friday with the US again warning Russia could invade at any time.
Markets Today: High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
US inflation comes in hot again with core measures showing wides-spread inflation pressures
Markets Today: Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers
Lots of central bank speak from Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE today
Markets Today: China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?
The key question as yields march higher is how high can they go in this cycle?
Markets Today: Markets still guessing the path of inflation
Inflation and related central bank thinking remains by far the bigger influence on market sentiment
Markets Today: US kept working through Omicron peak
US economy brushes Omicron aside with a strong January Labour market report
Markets Today: Tight squeeze or a gentle touch
European yields soar as ECB pivots more hawkish – Lagarde fails to rule out hiking in 2022
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks
Equities recovery continued overnight with both European and US markets extending recent gains.
The AUD in January 2022
It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)
Markets Today: Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
The US economy is travelling with some momentum along side a tight labour market and still elevated inflationary pressures
Markets Today: RBA to join the rate-rise race?
Bostic retracts his 50bps comment, states “is not my preferred policy action” for March
Markets Today: Aussie dollar loses break point
AUD below 0.70 to lowest since mid-July 2020 – month end could be a factor
Markets Today: The aftermath of the Fed
Shares attempts a recovery but US equities back in negative territory in afternoon trade
Markets Today: Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy
Hawkish hold by the FOMC/Powell sees yields rip higher and equities reverse earlier gains
Markets Today: Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
Geopolitics has had an influence on markets today, but the influence of the Fed should still not be underestimated.
Markets Today: Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week
Bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed will signal a March hike.
Markets Today: Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
Latest flurry ahead of January 25-26 FOMC suggests March rates lift off expected.
The AUD in December 2021
AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.
Markets Today: Looking ahead to a better 2022
US and EU equities rebound overnight with mostly positive Omicron news lifting sentiment while company specific news have also helped the cause.
Markets Today: Europe’s cold cold Christmas
Commodity market news overnight is a fresh surge in European gas prices
Markets Today: A very cautious Christmas
Expect a cautious start to the week with the Netherlands going into lockdown on Sunday
Markets Today: BoE lifts rates despite everything
Against the consensus view for an unchanged outcome, the BoE unexpectedly also raised rates by 15bps to 0.25%.
Markets Today: Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise
The FOMC delivered a hawkish tilt for Christmas with the Fed dot plot showing three rate hikes in 2022 while also accelerating the taper profile.
Markets Today: It’s all about dots and jabs
US PPI beat expectations fuelling hawkish FOMC expectations
Markets Today: A little more caution on a lot less news
Slight risk aversion to start the week with equities down, yields down and US dollar up
Markets Today: UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
Limited market reactions to ‘as expected’ US CPI – 6.8% headline highest since June 1982
Markets Today: Transmission and inflation – the two concerns
Risk tone deteriorates in front of US CPI tonight, lack of positive new news on Omicron
Markets Today: Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
After a solid run in the previous two days, equities are taking a breather with European shares closing lower amid concerns over the need for a new round of covid restrictions.
Markets Today: Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
Markets continue to travel with optimism that Omicron will not have the severity of prior variants in terms of health outcomes, even if it is more transmissible.
AMW: Why don’t markets believe the RBA?
Markets might be right on the interest rate outlook.
Markets Today: China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
Positive Omicron reports coming from South Africa alongside an encouraging preliminary assessment from Dr Fauci over the weekend boosted sentiment with overnight news of policy easing in China, an additional bonus.
Markets today: Too tight too quickly?
As we start a new week, Omicron headlines were positive on Saturday which may add to some stabilisation in risk sentiment.
Growing importance of FX management to super funds
NAB's 2021 biennial Super Fund FX Survey highlighted that on average, close to 47% of funds’ assets are allocated offshore.
Markets Today: There’s a certain uncertainty
Risk sentiment recovered overnight with virus/vaccine news flow being net positive
Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.
The AUD in November 2021
The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.
Markets Today: Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?
It has been a volatile session overnight driven by differing headlines around vaccine efficacy, capped off by very significant hawkish tilt by US Fed Chair Powell in Senate Testimony.
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.
ESG and stewardship: Steering the transition
New NAB research shows how asset managers are working towards a more sustainable future through their investing activities and how companies can best embrace the change.
Markets Today: Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
Omicron uncertainty triggers a rethink on the global economic outlook
Markets Today: Talking turkey on central bank thinking
BoE’s Bailey still guiding that rates will need to be higher ahead of the Dec MPC meet.
Markets Today: Is the US getting too hot to handle?
Dovish Fed Official (Daly) flips to looking at accelerating tapering and to hikes in 2022
Markets Today: Happy tales from Euroland
Eurozone PMIs spring upside surprise, supporting EUR and holding USD in check
Markets Today: US dollar rises as Powell stays put
Ahead of a speech by President Biden later today on the economy and inflation, we got news that Jay Powell is to be re-appointed to a second term as Fed chair.
Markets Today: A speedy taper and European tantrums
Rising COVID infections around Europe and news that Austria will go into lockdown rattled markets on Friday with 10y Bunds leading a decline in core global bond yields.
Markets Today: US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
Fed speak was not market moving, but it is worth noting it is mostly turning slightly hawkish.
Markets Today: Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
Some in the market were positioned for an upside surprise in Australian wages data, but that wasn’t forthcoming, with the data bang in line with expectations at 2.2% y/y, back to pre-pandemic levels.
Markets Today: Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
Trio of strong data with US Retail, US Industrial Production, and UK Jobs all beating
NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2021: summary
Our 10th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian Super Funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.
Markets Today: Europe’s caution, China’s hope
Data, supply and hawkish CB talk push core yields higher
Markets Today: US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
US stocks had a positive day on Friday, so further recouping some of last Tuesday and Wednesday’s pre and post CPI weakness
Markets Today: Have a little faith
The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses
Markets Today: Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
US CPI jumped in October with annual readings printing at new multi-decade highs, the broad base acceleration in prices challenges the transitory narrative and increases the pressure on a patient Fed.
Markets Today: Markets out of steam on inflation day
Risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse with the first S&P down day in nine.
Markets Today: Taking a breather
US equities close slightly higher while Europe starts the new week on the back foot.
Markets Today: Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
There was a mixed market reaction to the better than expected US Payrolls print on Friday with equities up, yields down and the USD lower.
Markets Today: Bank of England Backs Down
The BoE shocked markets overnight with its thunderous silence.
ESG and equity: positioning for success
A new NAB report offers insights into how asset managers are incorporating sustainability metrics into their investing activities and what companies can do to develop best-in-class strategies.
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.
Markets Today: Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
Global yields fall at the short end in the wake of the RBA’s dovishness yesterday.
Markets Today: RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
Stock mostly firmer at start of new month, Europe faring better than US where S&P 500 ends +0.2%
The AUD in October 2021
The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.
Markets Today: Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again
US equity continue to march to their own beat, oblivious to softer data releases and volatility in rates markets driven by Central Bank policy uncertainty.
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.
Markets Today: Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
US and European equities have ended the day in positive territory, supported by solid earnings reports and better than expected US data releases.
Markets Today: Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
Inflation fears continued to build amid the backdrop of a strong Q3 earnings season which is showing firms have some pricing power to pass on higher transitory inflation
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
The biggest moves across Global Markets have been seen in the US rates market, where break-even inflation rates have jumped by a full 10 basis points at both 5 and 10 years.
Markets Today: The inflation debate heats up
The S&P 500 has extended its winning streak to a sixth day with mixed earnings and a subdued Fed Beige report not enough to derail the positive vibes
Markets Today: Earnings anything but a damp squid
If the market is rethinking how soon the Fed might lift rates, there was nothing from incoming Fed speakers overnight to support this view.
Markets Today: Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?
Although the US is less exposed to the energy crunch, supply bottle necks are still affecting its economy, particularly in sectors there is a shortage of workers, raw materials, and chips.
Markets Today: Shares rising despite everything.
Inflation fears are clearly lifting, with the latest driven by the rise in energy prices.
Markets Today: Have inflation concerns peaked?
The sun has been shining on risk sentiment, commodity prices and commodity currencies overnight
Markets Today: Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
With markets having aggressively pushed Fed pricing into 2022, it is likely there is some thought that such a tightening will weigh on demand earlier.
Markets Today: IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
The ‘Quit Rate’ is the highest on record, reflective of the ease which workers are switching jobs, in part at least for better pay or conditions elsewhere.
Markets Today: Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
The rise in energy prices is fuelling concerns that the transitory lift in inflation seen in the wake of the pandemic may prove to be longer lasting.
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.
Markets Today: Everyone seems happy to kick the can
Risk asset have enjoyed a solid rebound overnight following news that the US Senate had reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling
Markets Today: Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
European and US equities rebounded overnight with a stronger than expected US Services ISM supporting the view that it’s all good, notwithstanding the ongoing rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks.
Markets Today: Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
NSW meeting the 70% full vaccination target may be announced as early today (more likely tomorrow) in which case it may well attract more local media headlines than the RBA meeting.
Markets Today: Hospital
US equities finish last week strongly with positive trial results from Merck's Covid treatment drug helping sentiment.
The AUD in September 2021
Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.
Markets Today: China secures fuel at all costs
US equity losses accelerate into Thursday’s close; worse month for S&P500 since March 2020
Markets Today: Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
Equities made an unconvincing “buy the dip” bounce as yields consolidated their recent moves.
Markets Today: Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
Fed talk overnight tilted hawkish with the Fed’s Bullard advocating for two hikes in 2022 and also flagging the case for balance sheet unwind after tapering ends.
Markets Today: Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
10yr Treasuries spend time above 1.50%. Neither equities nor USD seem to care….
Markets Today: Add the US debt ceiling to the list of concerns
Week ends quietly after Evergrande/FOMC related volatility earlier in the week
Markets Today: Optimism. But why?
BoE meeting more hawkish than expected, seen opening door to hikes by year’s end.
Markets Today: Not yet, but soon says the Fed
Fed tees up November taper announcement, subject to reasonably good Sep. employment report
Markets Today: Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed & oil inventories
US equities fail to bounce after Monday, with the S&P500 down -0.1 ahead of the FOMC.
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.
Markets Today: Just another cautious Monday
Caution is in the air ahead of the FOMC this week where market moves on Friday tiled towards a mildly hawkish outcome.
ESG and capital roundtable discussion
Responding to changing asset manager behaviours and expectations.
Markets Today: Lots of movement, not much direction
There have been quite a lot of moving parts to the price action overnight.
Markets Today: Has US inflation peaked?
The market was looking for an ease in US CPI readings and in the end the figures delivered a bit more than expected
Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
It has been a slow start to the week with little in the way of market moves outside of commodities. Markets overall appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI figures tonight and the FOMC next week . The S&P500 swung between small gains and losses to finish up 0.2% after five consecutive days of losses, helped along by energy stocks.
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.
Markets Today: Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
US equity markets slip for second day, bigger falls in Europe amid more cautious mood. NY Fed’s Williams re-enforces markets views post-Jackson Hole, August payrolls.
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.
Markets Today: Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
US payrolls came in softer than the consensus (235k vs. 733k expected), but a soft print was widely expected given the weakness seen in high frequency indicators such as HomeBase. The surprise for markets was more on Average Hourly Earnings which were stronger than expected
Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement: NAB-Austrade webinar highlights
We look at how the proposed Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement could mean new import and export opportunities. Watch now.
Webinar
Markets Today: Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
In what have been predictably quiet bond and equity markets ahead of US payrolls tonight, currencies are continuing to enjoy their week in the sun.
The AUD in August 2021
Almost, but not quite, a round-trip for AUD/USD in August.
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).
Markets Today: Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
Month end flows interrupt week-long USD depreciation trend but AUD and NZD have done enough work to suggest a base is now in after failing to take a hit from weak China PMI data.
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.
Markets Today: Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
Cautiousness has crept back into markets on the eve of Jackson Hole. Twin suicide attacks outside of Kabul airport has seen 12 US service members killed along with at least 60 Afghans. Coming up today, Fed Chair Powell gives his key mark address at Jackson Hole.
Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher
In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.
Markets Today: Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
US equities recover into the close calming market sentiment. Spike in VIX and rotation into defensive/tech stock point to a cautionary tale. European equities cannot escape the negative vibes from Asia
Markets Today: Central banks holding back
Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.
Markets Today: Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
The negative vibes from our APAC session extended overnight with softer than expected US data releases not helping the cause. US retail sales were broadly softer, and the NAHB housing market index also came in weaker than expected.
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday
Markets Today: On the road to nowhere
Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.
Markets Today: Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
US Senate passes $550bn Infrastructure bill as expected but still a road ahead for passage by House. No positive covid developments overnight, but markets behaving as though there were. New record high for Eurostoxx 50, S&P500 closes flat, NASDAQ pressured by higher bond yields.
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.
Markets Today: Watch Germany go
The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery
The antipodean central banks are taking an optimistic view of the recovery with the RBA pushing ahead with its tapering of asset purchases (despite the protracted Sydney lockdown) and the RBNZ has as good as said the central bank will lift rates in August.
Markets Today: More caution on manufacturing undershoot
US equity markets have begun the new week in a tentative manner with a nervous feeling in the air. A slightly softer, but still elevated ISM print added fuel to peak growth concerns and the UST curve bull flattened.
The AUD in July 2021
The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.
Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.
Markets Today: High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies
Strong earnings continue to outweigh Delta concerns with the S&P500 reaching a new record high, So far 87% of companies reporting have beaten expectations and if maintained would be the strongest earnings beat since 2008.
Markets Today: Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
Monday’s delta blues are once again talking back-seat in driving markets, the winning streak in the major US stock indices extending to a third day as incoming quarterly earnings reports for the most part continue to beat expectations, the S&P500 closing within 0.4% of last Mondays record high.
Markets Today: Risk back on with rebound expectations
Strong earnings have swept away Delta concerns in the US with 85% of companies reporting so far beating expectations.
Markets Today: Markets recover, but why?
The Delta variant continues to spread, vaccination rates have slowed, and case numbers are rising.
Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.
AMW: Closed borders suggest Australia’s labour market will remain (temporarily) very tight
There are now less than two unemployed people for every job vacancy in Australia, a record low for this ratio.
Markets Today: Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
Following a positive lead from Asia, US and EU equities have kick started the new week with a positive tone.
Markets Today: Delta’s day off
A swift turnaround in market sentiment on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill provides some of the reasons.
Markets Today: 2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
The ECB’S new strategy has driven the Euro higher in a market which has generally been driven down by COVID concerns. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 8 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
The FOMC minutes did little for cautious markets. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the outcome of the ECB’s Strategic Review should hold more interest.
Markets Today: Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
The RBA is focused on data not dates, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call. It’s data from the US and Germany that’s added caution to markets overnight, along with rising concerns about China.
Markets Today: Freedom Day for the UK and D-Day for the RBA
What follows the QE2 in September? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is expecting a flexible target, but that we can expect a ripple of surprises from the RBA today.
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.
The AUD in June 2021
The AUD traded in a wider range in June relative to May
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 July 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: The last day of treading water
Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.
Markets Today: Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts
It’s been a scratchy session, says NAB’s David de Garis, as markets shy away from sharp moves ahead of Friday’s payrolls data from the US.
Markets Today: Confidence rising but so is the Delta strain
Reopening and vaccines are helping economies, but the Delta variant is still a concern for markets says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, explaining today’s sideways moves.
Markets Tody: Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads
Risk appetite retreats a little ahead of the non-farm payrolls on Friday and with the Delta strain delaying the reopening of economies, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Markets Today: Lock down means no RBA lowdown
The impact of the latest lockdown and Biden’s stimulus backflip. NAB’s Ray Attrill on two bits of news for markets to respond to this morning.
Markets Today: Biden whittles down infrastructure plan to win support
Equities driven higher by Biden’s infrastructure plan deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says bond markets were unmoved by Fed speakers suggesting higher inflation for longer and rate rises sooner.
FX and your business podcast: 24 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: The crawl back is done, reflation takes over
Bond yields are back to where they were before the FOMC meeting, says NABs David de Garis, with the focus now back on the reflation trade.
Markets Today: Fed cools things down, words from the RBA later
The global reflation trade is not dead, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as Fed speakers help markets further unwind their response to last week’s FOMC.
AMW: Terms of Trade & AUD
Things were better in the old days
Markets Today: Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response
Last week’s post FOMC sell-off was overdone, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s Morning Call podcast, evidenced by a big reversal overnight. Although markets remain jittery.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar caught in the storm
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week hitting a two-month high after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price?
FX and your business weekly podcast: 18 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out but currencies fall
The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed.
Markets Today: Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap
At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, with the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023.
Markets Today: Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC
The FOMC meeting is tonight and markets are being cautious, with little movement in bonds or equities. A weaker than expected set of retail sales numbers has added to the uncertainty.
Markets Today: Oil nudges higher
Oil has hit a two-year high.
Markets Today: Market unphased by US CPI
US CPI was a higher than expected but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride.
Markets Today: Inflation – mixed signals and opinions
Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 9 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: Markets going nowhere yet US job openings boom
Bond yields are pushing lower and market volatility is easing.
Markets Today: Goldilocks loses a little of her shine
If non-farm payrolls gave markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday then maybe markets are already starting to question whether it was exactly what was needed.
Markets Today: US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot
Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday.
Markets Today: Taper torment
There was speculation that the Fed would taper sooner rather than later.
The AUD in May 2021
May was the lowest volatility month so far in 2021.
Markets Today: Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs
If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was the rising concern about input costs.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 2 June 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements
Markets Today: No surprises from the RBA
The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now.
Markets Today: China wants to curb the Yuan & grow the family
The rising Yuan is clearly a concern for the PBoC who announced measures to tackle it, whilst Chinese authorities are now permitting families to have three children.
Markets Today: Month end comes early for some
It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today.
Markets Today: More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current FX market movements.
Markets Today: RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down
The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year.
Markets Today: China gets Yuan up on the dollar
The US dollar has fallen again with rises in the Euro and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick?
Markets Today: Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concern
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transitory.
Markets Today: Lagarde’s tapering reluctance
The Euro lost ground on Friday as President Lagarde refused to commit to any schedule for talking tapering.
Markets Today: Another turnaround Thursday
Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week’s FOMC minutes.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Fed taper talk pushes yields higher
The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan to adjust the pace of asset purchases if the economic recovery continues.
Markets Today: US dollar heading to 2018 lows
It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight whilst bonds headed sideways.
Markets Today: Uncertain markets change direction again
US shares fell as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, confidence and retail
Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports.
Markets Today: Fewer jobless claims
USA equities came bouncing back after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers.
Markets Today: The inflation shock we were warned about
US CPI numbers came in on the high side and markets have reacted swiftly with equities falling sharply and the bond sell-off pushing Treasury yields up.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements. This week's podcast includes a focus on inflation and FX implications .
Markets Today: Vertigo and inflation fears
The risk off mood is being driven by increasing inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits
Inflation expectations continues to influence markets.
Markets Today: Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach?
US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday with just 266k more people in work versus the expectation of close to one million.
Markets Today: Let’s not get carried away
The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7.25 percent.
Markets Today: Will the BoE taper before the Fed?
The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 5 May 2021
Our new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Yellen’s rates call surprises
Janet Yellen surprised the markets uggesting it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the economy from overheating.
Markets Today: Demand beating supply
Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic.
The AUD in April 2021
The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.
Markets Today: A bad end to a solid month
Markets turned a little sour at the end of the week.
Markets Today: The price of supply chain disruption
It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have been strong.
Markets Today: Long ways to go, says Powell
“long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy and the reason that rates won’t be lifting anytime soon.
Markets Today: Treading water
Markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning.
2021 NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey webcast with ASFA CEO
Our Head of FX Investor Sales APAC and Head of FX Research joins ASFA CEO to discuss the 2021 survey.
Markets Today: Reflation reigns for now
Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 26 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Risk on, for how long?
Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week,
Markets Today: Rumoured US tax grab
Shares in the US have fallen on news of a planned sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans.
Markets Today: Hawkish Bank of Canada boosts Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year
Markets Today: Markets cautious over speed of recovery
There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now.
为什么使用远期合约?-进口商篇
远期合约能够帮助企业控制成本且锁定企业的预算外汇汇率,本文通过例举三个被普遍使用的远期合约策略来阐述进口商们是如何通过这些策略来管理企业的外汇风险
Markets Today: Wall St pulls back during quiet session
US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs.
12 months on from COVID-19: NAB Markets podcast
What's the economic and financial markets landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Bitcoin stalls but US economy set to rip
There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace.
Markets Today: Topsy turvey response to a good news day
The news was largely positive overnight.
Markets Today: Earnings up; oil shoots higher.
Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market.
Markets Today: Vaccine slow down & inflation sign
It’s been a session with mixed messages.
Markets Today: US CPI today
It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 12 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: New highs, fast jabs & more inflation brush off
Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs.
Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.
Markets Today: Markets lacklustre
It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time.
Markets Today: Consolidating and vaccinating
There were no significant market moves overnight.
The AUD in March 2021
The AUD/USD averaged almost exactly 0.77 over the month.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 6 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: US bounce pushes equities to record highs
US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data.
Markets Today: Markets rally ahead of Biden’s talk
President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 29 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Currency spotlight: NZD
This podcast focuses on the New Zealand dollar – what’s been happening and what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
Markets Today: Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways
It’s been another mixed session.
Markets Today: vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns
Even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slower than envisaged.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 22 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: SLR and all that
The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.
Currency spotlight: Yen
This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.
Markets Today: Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing
The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout.
Markets Today: Slow movement, soft data
There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US.
Markets Today: Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout
The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries.
FX business focus: retail
A new podcast that looks at what strategies clients used to manage the recent foreign exchange market volatility.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 15 March 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower
Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year.
Currency spotlight: Euro
This podcast focuses on the Euro - it's drivers and outlook.
Markets Today: ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing
Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets.
FX business focus: importing
A podcast that explores how Australian importers managed their foreign exchange strategies during and post the global pandemic.
Currency spotlight: AUD/USD
The AUD/USD in 2021 – the story so far and what lies ahead?
FX business focus: Agribusiness
A new podcast that looks at what strategies agribusiness clients used to manage recent foreign exchange market volatility.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 1 March 2021
A new weekly podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Super funds and listed companies can boost growth by working together
Listed companies and superannuation funds can lift returns and boost Australia’s economic growth if they work together, the recent 2019 Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia heard.
Low rates a challenge for superannuation funds & members
The recent NAB Super Evolution conference considered the implications of low interest rates on investments and asset allocations, and how that could affect superannuation returns.
Real assets expensive but opportunities remain
Amid an expensive market and an uncertain global economy, fund managers are cautioning discipline, though there are opportunities for investors to look outside traditional markets and work on assets.
Fewer, larger, more transparent super funds
The super sector will undergo changes in the next five years that will bring fewer and larger funds, more intrusive regulators and a sharp focus on returns and fees, says Martin Fahy, chief executive officer of the Association of Superannuation Funds Australia.
Super trustees face challenges in assessing merger partners
In a rapidly consolidating sector, trustees must consider many factors as they eye potential tie-ups.
NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2019: summary
Our 9th biennial survey – the only survey of its kind to examine hedging techniques of Australian super funds – captures their shifting priorities in this rapidly changing landscape.
Super funds ESG survey findings
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations are fast becoming incorporated into mainstream practice across all sectors of business.
How technology will change the super sector
Technology has already revolutionised back offices at superannuation funds and wealth management businesses, and is soon to transform customer service as well.
Super funds and banks: partnering for the future
Tapping into a giant retirement savings pool.
Superfunds turn to venture capital
Australia’s superannuation funds are turning to venture capital for the outsized returns the sector can generate and to diversify their portfolios, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.
The infrastructure opportunity for super funds
Australia’s superannuation funds should seriously consider infrastructure investment opportunities that help build the nation, NAB Chief Customer Officer of Consumer Banking, and former Premier of New South Wales, Mike Baird, says.
Australia’s dynamic superfunds
Aussie superfunds face a world where investment themes are changing and there’s a continued search for yield. NAB’s latest Superannuation FX Hedging survey indicates they’re up to the challenge.
Superfunds: how size is making its mark
NAB’s most recent FX Hedging survey shows that superfunds are adapting their hedging strategies, thanks in large part to an increase in size.
Super evolution: NAB Superannuation FX Hedging Survey 2017
Our 8th biennial survey captures the shifting priorities of Australian super funds in a rapidly changing landscape.
Socially responsible investing in Australia
Socially responsible investing (SRI) means integrating non-financial factors – such as ethical, social or environmental concerns – into the investment process with the aim of earning both a financial return and a moral ‘return’.
Basel 3: Impacts and Opportunities for Superannuation Funds
Basel 3 represents significant regulatory change, with profound impact on the global financial system, including Australia. This publication and related articles look at the likely impacts of Basel 3 and potential opportunities for Superannuation funds.