NAB specialists help brokers support business customers to mitigate market risk and grow. Originally published on Australian Broker on 05 Feb 2024.


Article
NAB specialists help brokers support business customers to mitigate market risk and grow. Originally published on Australian Broker on 05 Feb 2024.
Article
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
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Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]
It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014
US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs
The bond selloff continued overnight in what was a very quiet night for newsflow. The US 10yr hit a 16yr high of 4.55%, now 4.53%, and up some 11.2bps over the past 24 hours.
The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come.
Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.
The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.
US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.
Positive soundbites from Biden and McCarthy give hope a debt deal can be reached.
A flurry of global economic data but relatively modest market movements.
The Bank of England raised rates by 25bp as expected, while softer data out of China and the US weighed on risk sentiment
Markets are showing relief that the key US CPI release overnight was not higher than expected
Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.
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