Business Research & Insights

Uncertainty remains high ahead of July reciprocal tariffs

We forecast the global economy to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 (previously 2¾% in both years).

Tariff pause gives China’s economy some breathing space, but longer-term uncertainty persists

We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2

Robust growth was maintained in Q1, but China faces the storm of US tariffs

We have lowered our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts for a wide range of countries, particularly China and (last week) the US. We now expect global growth of around 2¾% in both years (previously around 3.0%).

We expect global economic growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025

China keeps growth target unchanged and rolls out a consumption plan, but will it actually be delivered?

We expect to see a modest slowing in growth across 2025 to 3.1%

Global growth eased slightly in 2024 to 3.2% and is likely to slip further in 2025 and 2026.

We expect growth in the global economy to remain subdued out to 2026.