We forecast the global economy to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 (previously 2¾% in both years).


Insight
We forecast the global economy to grow by 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 (previously 2¾% in both years).
Insight
Tariff pause gives China’s economy some breathing space, but longer-term uncertainty persists
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We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2
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Robust growth was maintained in Q1, but China faces the storm of US tariffs
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We have lowered our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts for a wide range of countries, particularly China and (last week) the US. We now expect global growth of around 2¾% in both years (previously around 3.0%).
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We expect global economic growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025
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China keeps growth target unchanged and rolls out a consumption plan, but will it actually be delivered?
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We expect to see a modest slowing in growth across 2025 to 3.1%
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Global growth eased slightly in 2024 to 3.2% and is likely to slip further in 2025 and 2026.
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RBA revisions, rates and risks ahead
We expect growth in the global economy to remain subdued out to 2026.
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Economic planners flag more stimulus in the pipeline, but there may be a wait on the details
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We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to move slightly higher in Q4
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We have lifted our global growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from 3.1 to 3.2%
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Fiscal stimulus likely too late to boost 2024 growth, but may add some upside to 2025 forecasts
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