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Insights, Trends & Case Studies

Kiwi corporates seize A$ issuance opportunity

Kiwi corporates seize A$ issuance opportunity

21 February 2024

The breadth of interest from investors across the Asia Pacific region and ease of access is helping drive a strong pipeline in the Australian Medium-Term Note (AMTN) market as New Zealand borrowers head into 2024.

Kiwi corporates seize A$ issuance opportunity

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

The AUD in November 2023

The AUD in November 2023

1 December 2023

The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.

The AUD in November 2023
Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out
Markets Today – Sweet Spot

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

30 November 2023

Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.

Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet

28 November 2023

US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too

Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul

23 November 2023

Todays podcast   US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]

Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

22 November 2023

The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
Markets Today – Feel Good Time

Markets Today – Feel Good Time

21 November 2023

US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.

Markets Today – Feel Good Time
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

17 November 2023

A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Slow

Markets Today – Slow

15 November 2023

US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.

Markets Today – Slow
Markets Today – Torn

Markets Today – Torn

10 November 2023

Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.

Markets Today – Torn
Spreading your wings

Spreading your wings

7 November 2023

Homebody investors may love ASX blue-chip stocks and franked dividends, but could be missing out on opportunities in sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewables by ignoring offshore markets.

Spreading your wings

Article

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning

6 November 2023

Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.

Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Markets Today – Crazy in love

Markets Today – Crazy in love

3 November 2023

Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.

Markets Today – Crazy in love
Markets Today – On Hold

Markets Today – On Hold

2 November 2023

The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.

Markets Today – On Hold
The AUD in October 2023

The AUD in October 2023

1 November 2023

Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.

The AUD in October 2023
Markets Today – Muddy Waters

Markets Today – Muddy Waters

30 October 2023

European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.

Markets Today – Muddy Waters
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

27 October 2023

Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous

26 October 2023

US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.

Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
Markets Today – Carefully

Markets Today – Carefully

20 October 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment

Markets Today – Carefully
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

17 October 2023

Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Podcast

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

10 October 2023

Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Work It

Markets Today – Work It

9 October 2023

Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.

Markets Today – Work It
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet

6 October 2023

Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.

Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

5 October 2023

The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)

4 October 2023

A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.

Markets Today  – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
The AUD in September 2023

The AUD in September 2023

3 October 2023

The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.

The AUD in September 2023
The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

22 September 2023

Global inflation was higher in July, although this uptick was not broad based – concentrated in a few key emerging markets. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting a slightly stronger than expected result for Q2.

The Global & Australian Economic Outlook in Brief: September 2023

Article

Markets Today – One More Day

Markets Today – One More Day

20 September 2023

Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.

Markets Today – One More Day
Markets Today – Calm before the storm

Markets Today – Calm before the storm

19 September 2023

US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer

Markets Today – Calm before the storm
Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer

Markets Today – Livin’ On a Prayer

18 September 2023

The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer
Markets Today – As high as it gets?

Markets Today – As high as it gets?

15 September 2023

Todays podcast   ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]

Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

12 September 2023

Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – Slow Ride

Markets Today – Slow Ride

8 September 2023

Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.

Markets Today – Slow Ride
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

5 September 2023

It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – The Best

Markets Today – The Best

4 September 2023

Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried

Markets Today – The Best
Markets Today – Hot and Cold

Markets Today – Hot and Cold

31 August 2023

US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.

Markets Today – Hot and Cold
AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

29 August 2023

Powell affirmed the Fed will ‘keep at it’ on inflation, but what else happened at Jackson Hole? In the weekly, we pull out some of the key insights, including on the outlook for government debt and the ‘friendshoring’ dynamic.

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole
Markets Today – Play it Safe

Markets Today – Play it Safe

28 August 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.

Markets Today – Play it Safe
Markets Today – Falling

Markets Today – Falling

24 August 2023

Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.

Markets Today – Falling
Markets Today – Marking Time

Markets Today – Marking Time

23 August 2023

US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.

Markets Today – Marking Time
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

17 August 2023

Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Markets Today – When it rains it pours

Markets Today – When it rains it pours

15 August 2023

US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD

Markets Today – When it rains it pours
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

10 August 2023

Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

9 August 2023

Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

8 August 2023

Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Pump It

Markets Today – Pump It

2 August 2023

The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.

Markets Today – Pump It
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

1 August 2023

Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets Today – Better than you

Markets Today – Better than you

28 July 2023

Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.

Markets Today – Better than you
Markets Today – Shivers

Markets Today – Shivers

25 July 2023

Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.

Markets Today – Shivers
Markets Today – The Waiting

Markets Today – The Waiting

24 July 2023

US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.

Markets Today – The Waiting
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Slow and low

Markets Today – Slow and low

18 July 2023

Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.

Markets Today – Slow and low
Markets Today – Getting better

Markets Today – Getting better

17 July 2023

A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.

Markets Today – Getting better
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun

14 July 2023

After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.

Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
Markets Today – Waiting for the night

Markets Today – Waiting for the night

12 July 2023

Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.

Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

5 July 2023

The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The AUD in June 2023

The AUD in June 2023

3 July 2023

The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.

The AUD in June 2023
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make

3 July 2023

Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.

Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now

30 June 2023

The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.

Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.

28 June 2023

Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.

Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

Markets Today – No relief

Markets Today – No relief

22 June 2023

Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today

Markets Today – No relief
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)

20 June 2023

European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on

16 June 2023

US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

14 June 2023

US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

13 June 2023

After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.

Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

7 June 2023

In our latest Weekly, Taylor Nugent explores the impact of pandemic swings in population and housing demand to explain the current acute rental market tightness and rapidly increasing rents, as well as when these pressure may ease

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop
Markets Today – Consequences

Markets Today – Consequences

7 June 2023

It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.

Markets Today – Consequences
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good

5 June 2023

A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.

Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
Markets Today – Mr Brightside

Markets Today – Mr Brightside

2 June 2023

A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).

Markets Today – Mr Brightside
The AUD in May 2023

The AUD in May 2023

1 June 2023

The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.

The AUD in May 2023
Markets Today – Mixed Signals

Markets Today – Mixed Signals

31 May 2023

After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.

Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

30 May 2023

Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Now That I Found You

Markets Today – Now That I Found You

29 May 2023

US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.

Markets Today – Now That I Found You
Markets Today – Tug of War

Markets Today – Tug of War

24 May 2023

The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.

Markets Today – Tug of War
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere

22 May 2023

US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.

Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Tread water

Markets Today – Tread water

10 May 2023

Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.

Markets Today – Tread water
Markets Today – No imminent crunch

Markets Today – No imminent crunch

9 May 2023

US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.

Markets Today – No imminent crunch
Markets Today – Dance Monkey

Markets Today – Dance Monkey

3 May 2023

Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.

Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Markets Today – Resolution

Markets Today – Resolution

2 May 2023

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.

Markets Today – Resolution
Markets Today – A lot to digest

Markets Today – A lot to digest

1 May 2023

The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.

Markets Today – A lot to digest
Markets Today – No Help Coming

Markets Today – No Help Coming

27 April 2023

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.

Markets Today – No Help Coming
Markets Today – The Reason

Markets Today – The Reason

21 April 2023

Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.

Markets Today – The Reason
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

Markets Today – Shake it up

Markets Today – Shake it up

20 April 2023

The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations

Markets Today – Shake it up
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

14 April 2023

Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Markets Today – Waiting for you

Markets Today – Waiting for you

12 April 2023

It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).

Markets Today – Waiting for you
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT

5 April 2023

A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.

Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
Markets Today – Stick or Twist

Markets Today – Stick or Twist

4 April 2023

Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today

Markets Today – Stick or Twist
The AUD in March 2023

The AUD in March 2023

3 April 2023

Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.

The AUD in March 2023
Markets Today – Love so soft

Markets Today – Love so soft

3 April 2023

A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).

Markets Today – Love so soft
Markets Today – It’s All Good

Markets Today – It’s All Good

30 March 2023

The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.

Markets Today – It’s All Good
Markets Today – Relative Calm

Markets Today – Relative Calm

29 March 2023

There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.

Markets Today – Relative Calm
Markets Today – Night of hunters

Markets Today – Night of hunters

27 March 2023

Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.

Markets Today – Night of hunters
Markets Today – Janet

Markets Today – Janet

24 March 2023

After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.

Markets Today – Janet
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

23 March 2023

The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC

22 March 2023

Todays podcast   VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]

Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Markets Today – So Yesterday

Markets Today – So Yesterday

21 March 2023

It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.

Markets Today – So Yesterday
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding

20 March 2023

A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.

Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil

14 March 2023

Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.

Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?

10 March 2023

Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.

Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Markets Today – Get Set

Markets Today – Get Set

9 March 2023

Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.

Markets Today – Get Set
Markets Today: Warning Sign

Markets Today: Warning Sign

8 March 2023

The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.

Markets Today: Warning Sign
Markets Today: I Feel Better

Markets Today: I Feel Better

6 March 2023

The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.

Markets Today: I Feel Better
Markets Today: (No) Resistance

Markets Today: (No) Resistance

3 March 2023

The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.

Markets Today: (No) Resistance
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

2 March 2023

The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The AUD in February 2023

The AUD in February 2023

1 March 2023

AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.

The AUD in February 2023
Markets Today: I won’t back down 

Markets Today: I won’t back down 

1 March 2023

Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.

Markets Today: I won’t back down 
AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

28 February 2023

Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong
Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me

Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me

28 February 2023

A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.

Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me
Markets Today:  Too Hot

Markets Today: Too Hot

27 February 2023

The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.

Markets Today:  Too Hot
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

Markets Today: Wages Day

Markets Today: Wages Day

23 February 2023

In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.

Markets Today: Wages Day
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

27 January 2023

Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing

18 January 2023

As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.

MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
Markets Today: Early year optimism

Markets Today: Early year optimism

11 January 2023

Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.

Markets Today: Early year optimism
The AUD in December 2022

The AUD in December 2022

3 January 2023

AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The AUD in December 2022
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer

15 December 2022

Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.

Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered

14 December 2022

In today’s weekly, we suggest a framework for sifting through the various forces buffeting the 2023 outlook and pose five big questions that we think need to be answered to judge how the economy and central bank policy will evolve in 2023.

AMW: 2023 outlook: Five big questions to be answered
The AUD in November 2022

The AUD in November 2022

1 December 2022

The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.

The AUD in November 2022
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?

22 November 2022

Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.

Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Markets Today: A rare dull day

Markets Today: A rare dull day

21 November 2022

Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.

Markets Today: A rare dull day
Markets Today: Tighter than ever

Markets Today: Tighter than ever

18 November 2022

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.

Markets Today: Tighter than ever
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

17 November 2022

Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Markets Today: A step too far

Markets Today: A step too far

16 November 2022

It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD

Markets Today: A step too far
AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

16 November 2022

In this Weekly, we explore recent RBA communications and forecasts and what it means for the path forward. It is clear there is a very high bar to step back up to 50bp hikes.

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?
Markets Today: A slight reality check

Markets Today: A slight reality check

15 November 2022

The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.

Markets Today: A slight reality check
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

9 November 2022

By downshifting the pace of hikes, central banks are acknowledging that decisions are becoming more finely balanced as they tread a fine line of returning inflation to target, while avoiding significantly overtightening policy and slowing the economy more than needed.

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

7 November 2022

Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race

2 November 2022

It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.

Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
The AUD in October 2022

The AUD in October 2022

1 November 2022

Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.

The AUD in October 2022
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

25 October 2022

The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in

24 October 2022

Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.

MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Markets Today: The battle for Britain

Markets Today: The battle for Britain

21 October 2022

Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.

Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

20 October 2022

Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities

AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities

18 October 2022

Australia’s second Budget for 2022-23 will be handed down next week (7.30pm on Tuesday 25th). Treasurer Chalmers has framed this Budget as one that will not add to inflation risks amid elevated cost-of living pressures and which occurs with a background of rising global recession risks.

AMW: October’s Budget & Australia’s Fiscal Relativities
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain

11 October 2022

Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.

Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise

5 October 2022

Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.

Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
The AUD in September 2022

The AUD in September 2022

4 October 2022

The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).

The AUD in September 2022
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

4 October 2022

A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet

14 September 2022

Today’s podcast Overview Rumours of inflation’s demise much exaggerated US CPI shocks to the upside: stocks, bonds take fright USD bounces back, AUD and NZD both down by more than 2% Next week’s Fed debate now seen to be between 75 and 100bps (83bps priced) German ZEW survey readings slumps while US NFIB Business Optimism […]

Markets Today: Peak inflation, not yet
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates

9 September 2022

It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation

Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

6 September 2022

Eurozone bonds yields and stocks falling on the latest jump in energy prices – both oil and gas – following confirmation the NordSteeam1 gas pipeline will remain shut while Russian sanctions are in place.

MT: UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

5 September 2022

A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
The AUD in August 2022

The AUD in August 2022

2 September 2022

The AUD/USD spent August oscillating around the 70 US cents mark but spent much more time below than above.

The AUD in August 2022
NAB Foreign Exchange

NAB Foreign Exchange

1 September 2022

We'll help you find the right foreign exchange risk management strategy by understanding your core business and the challenges you face every day.

NAB Foreign Exchange
AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

31 August 2022

Central bank officials from around the world met at Jackson Hole last week. In this Weekly we highlight the key discussion points and what implications this may have.

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?
This morning’s happy birthday call

This morning’s happy birthday call

29 August 2022

After clocking 5.5 million podcast plays and 15,000 daily listeners, NAB’s Morning Call is celebrating six years of market highlights, with even more expert analysis to come.

This morning’s happy birthday call

Podcast

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

25 August 2022

Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end

Markets Today: Shopping to the very end

22 August 2022

NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.

Markets Today:  Shopping to the very end
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ

17 August 2022

After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.

Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

11 August 2022

It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
Markets Today: Inflation Day

Markets Today: Inflation Day

10 August 2022

There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.

Markets Today: Inflation Day
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

9 August 2022

China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?

8 August 2022

An all-round stronger than expected US employment report Friday dominated the end-of-week market price action; whether they extend or at least partially reverse this week hinges in large part on Wednesday’s US July CPI data.

Markets Today: US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
The AUD in July 2022

The AUD in July 2022

2 August 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.

The AUD in July 2022
AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

27 July 2022

The Terms of Reference for the RBA Review have been finalised, the three-member review panel appointed, and March 2023 set as a deadline for a final report containing recommendations to the Government. In this Weekly, we look at what to expect.

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target
MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

27 July 2022

More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA

25 July 2022

A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.

Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

22 July 2022

The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

15 July 2022

Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

Insight

The AUD in June 2022

The AUD in June 2022

1 July 2022

The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.7170, made a high of 0.7283 on June 3 and fell to its monthly low of 0.6851 on June 15.

The AUD in June 2022
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric

20 June 2022

US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.

Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

17 June 2022

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

Insight

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial

10 June 2022

Announcing the end of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) as of July 1, the ECB also pre-announced a 25bps rise in interest rates out of its July meeting with a further rise planned out of the Sept meeting.

Markets Today: ECB set to turn up the dial
The AUD in May 2022

The AUD in May 2022

1 June 2022

AUD/USD hit a near two-year low of 0.6829 on May 13 after hitting its highest May prints earlier in the month (0.7266, seen on both May 4 and 5).

The AUD in May 2022
NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

13 May 2022

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

Insight

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week

28 April 2022

News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.

Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

14 April 2022

The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

11 March 2022

Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

Insight

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope

9 March 2022

Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy

Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

4 March 2022

EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting

3 March 2022

Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories

Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
The AUD in February 2022

The AUD in February 2022

2 March 2022

Despite being the month when Russia invaded Ukraine, the high-low range in AUD/USD was less than in January.

The AUD in February 2022
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

14 February 2022

Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

Insight

The AUD in January 2022

The AUD in January 2022

2 February 2022

It was an eventful start to the year, AUD/USD tracing out a range from a high of 0.7314 (Jan 13) to a low of 0.6965 (Jan 30)

The AUD in January 2022
The AUD in December 2021

The AUD in December 2021

11 January 2022

AUD/USD made its low point for the year on Dec.3 at 0.6993 – the pair’s only foray below 0.7000 in 2021.

The AUD in December 2021
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

17 December 2021

For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

Insight

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

2 December 2021

The US CDC has just identified the first case of Omicron in the United States – joining the UK, Switzerland and Brazil overnight – at a time when US infection rates of the delta variant had already started creeping back up.

Markets Today: WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
The AUD in November 2021

The AUD in November 2021

1 December 2021

The overwhelming negative influence late in the month was the emergence of the Omicron covid-19 variant and doubts over the efficacy of existing vaccines against this strain and all that might imply for the global economic re-opening process.

The AUD in November 2021
Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

30 November 2021

Global markets have seen a modest retracement of many of last Friday’s violent ‘risk-off’ moves, with equities higher in Europe, so too US government yields up, as too is oil, but in all cases to nowhere near Friday’s closing levels.

Markets Today: The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
COP26 week two: It’s a wrap

COP26 week two: It’s a wrap

15 November 2021

After the fanfare of the opening statements and commitments, the second week at Glasgow meant bridging divides to reach a consensus deal in extra time as the Paris 2015 ambitions start to take flight.

COP26 week two: It’s a wrap
NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

12 November 2021

We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Have a little faith

Markets Today: Have a little faith

12 November 2021

The US has been out for Veterans Day, though stock markets have been open and have recouped a little of their pre and post US CPI losses

Markets Today: Have a little faith
AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

9 November 2021

In this Weekly we look at Australia’s latest monthly deficit figures ahead of MYEFO in December, which show the deficit is set to come in much better than expected even with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra having been in lockdown

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings
COP26 week one: key takeaways

COP26 week one: key takeaways

5 November 2021

While the world’s press and pundits assess the ongoing talks in Glasgow, we look at what’s happened so far and what to expect during this crucial time for climate action.

COP26 week one: key takeaways
Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time

4 November 2021

No surprises from the FOMC in its formal policy pronouncement, the Fed announcing a November start to the QE tapering process at the as-expected pace of $15bn per month.

Markets Today: Tighter but taking time
The AUD in October 2021

The AUD in October 2021

1 November 2021

The RBA’s failure to buy the bond in the days following the Q3 CPI report convinced the market the YCC target at least in current form, was set to be formally abandoned out of the 2 November Board meeting.

The AUD in October 2021
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

1 November 2021

US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

28 October 2021

A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal

25 October 2021

Friday’s main economic events, namely the ‘flash’ PMIs, tell us that there is little reason to fear stagnation, for the time being at least, given still elevated levels for all readings across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: Powell wants time to heal
NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

15 October 2021

We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention

11 October 2021

US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.

Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?

7 October 2021

Words from politicians of various stripes have gone a little way to alleviating two of the major concerns currently plaguing global markets, namely the ongoing energy crisis centred on Europe and the looming deadline for lifting or scrapping the US debt ceiling

Markets Today: Where is the safe haven?
Markets Today: Hospital

Markets Today: Hospital

4 October 2021

US equities finish last week strongly with positive trial results from Merck's Covid treatment drug helping sentiment.

Markets Today: Hospital
The AUD in September 2021

The AUD in September 2021

1 October 2021

Forces acting on the AUD (and other commodity linked currencies) independent of USD strength in September were largely China related.

The AUD in September 2021
Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears

21 September 2021

A torrid day for Hong Kong’s hang Seng index yesterday, driven by sharp fall in property sector stocks and led by a 16% fall in Evergrande ahead of Thursday’s bond coupon payment day, spilled over to the global arena on Monday with equities down sharply, bond yields lower and safe haven currencies in the ascendancy.

Markets Today: Evergrande Contagion Fears
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

17 September 2021

COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

Insight

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

16 September 2021

The lift in equities appears to be a case of ‘buy the dip’ with an absence of any positive news flow apart from the very second-tier Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey which surprised sharply to the upside.

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?
AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?

AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?

14 September 2021

At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, markets understandably reacted to US Fed Chair Powell’s speech which effectively significantly divorced tapering from rate hikes.

AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?
Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down

Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down

14 September 2021

It has been a slow start to the week with little in the way of market moves outside of commodities. Markets overall appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI figures tonight and the FOMC next week . The S&P500 swung between small gains and losses to finish up 0.2% after five consecutive days of losses, helped along by energy stocks.

Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious

13 September 2021

After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy

Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering

10 September 2021

As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.

Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually

8 September 2021

US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.

Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks

7 September 2021

US markets being out for the Labor Day holiday hasn’t prevented global equity markets forging ahead. The US dollar has recouped a little of its (further) losses seen post last Friday’s US payrolls report and since AUD and NZD have been the two biggest beneficiaries of USD slippage of late, no great surprise they have lost a little more than most other currencies overnight.

Markets Today: COVID versus the central banks
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth

2 September 2021

Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).

Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

31 August 2021

In this Weekly we argue why we think activity should again rebound sharply once lockdown restrictions are eased. Key to how sharply activity can rebound is will people feel confident to resume activity and have household and business balance sheets been sufficiently insulated from recent outbreaks?

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

31 August 2021

A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence

30 August 2021

The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.

Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher

Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher

26 August 2021

In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.

Markets Today:  High hopes keep getting higher
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

25 August 2021

Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news

24 August 2021

Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.

Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context

AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context

24 August 2021

The NSW and Victorian outbreaks remain stubbornly high in the face of strict lockdown measures, renewing focus on vaccinations as the path forward. The vaccination rollout is finding its gear, led by a sharp acceleration in NSW, putting the rollout on track to meet reopening thresholds by November.

AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context
Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

23 August 2021

Mid-morning in Friday’s US trading day, Bob Kaplan said he may rethink his call for the Fed to quickly start to taper its $120 billion per month in bond purchases if it looks like the spread of the coronavirus delta variant is slowing economic growth. This didn’t have a big impact on bonds, but we can date the start of the run-up in US equity indices and a pull back in the USD to his comments hitting the screens, testament to the ongoing sensitivity the currency and risk markets are exhibiting to the question of when QE tapering starts.

Markets Today: Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Markets Today: Central banks holding back

Markets Today: Central banks holding back

19 August 2021

Following a fair amount of volatility in the immediate wake of the FOMC Minutes US equities are lower, bond yields and the USD are lower, the latter allowing the AUD some relief after posting a new year-to-date low of 0.7229 in the run up to the Minutes, but the gains are already proving hard to hold.

Markets Today: Central banks holding back
AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market

AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market

17 August 2021

Lockdowns in Australia are likely to have a very acute impact on the economy, much more than what the RBA had pencilled in only a week ago. While NAB still expects a sharp rebound in activity when restrictions ease, the near-term impact is likely to be larger with lockdowns extending beyond Sydney (e.g. NSW, Melbourne and ACT).

AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market
Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

17 August 2021

The much weaker than expected China data, lack of encouraging covid news over the weekend – no more so than in Australia – and the news out of Afghanistan which adds another dimension to ever-present geopolitical concerns (in this case, international terrorism) perennially cited as a risk to positive market sentiment – haven’t prevented the S&P 500 closing at a new record high.

Markets Today: China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

16 August 2021

US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

13 August 2021

Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

Insight

Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere

Markets Today: On the road to nowhere

13 August 2021

Quiet night but S&P 500 ekes out a third successive record daily close. Stronger than expected US PPI a reminder that supply chain disruptions are still with us.

Markets Today:  On the road to nowhere
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

12 August 2021

US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

10 August 2021

Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

9 August 2021

Strong US Payrolls print, cementing expectations of a taper announcement at an upcoming FOMC meeting (September, November or December). As tapering becomes more certain, market focus will quickly change to the likely rate hike profile. Recent speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Brainard hint how this will evolve.

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

8 August 2021

Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Markets Today: Watch Germany go

Markets Today: Watch Germany go

6 August 2021

The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited

Markets Today: Watch Germany go
The AUD in July 2021

The AUD in July 2021

2 August 2021

The AUD failed to benefit from the generally weaker USD, in contrast to all other major currencies which rose during the last week of July. From mid-month, a very sharp fall-back in iron ore prices, albeit a commodity with a very fickle and sometimes non-existent short term relationship with the AUD, drew attention

The AUD in July 2021
Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?

Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?

2 August 2021

Lots of economic data to digest on Friday but none of which had a major impact on markets, while Saturday’s China official PMI data showing a further (and bigger than expected) fall in its Manufacturing Index threatens to play with the grain of recent AUD underperformance.

Markets Today: Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks

30 July 2021

US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.

Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

29 July 2021

A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors

28 July 2021

For the first time, we are now seeing contagion from the sell-off in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese shares, to global markets – the NASDAQ in particular, ending the day down 1.2% in front of the earnings results from Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Markets Today: Rocky road for China investors
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

27 July 2021

After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.

Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

27 July 2021

The Sydney lockdown is in its fifth week and looks set to be extended well beyond July 30. Given the high transmission rates of the delta variant, snap lockdowns are likely to remain a ‘tool of first resort’ in controlling the virus until vaccination rates lift.

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

16 July 2021

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

16 July 2021

There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

5 July 2021

The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
Markets Today: The last day of treading water

Markets Today: The last day of treading water

2 July 2021

Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.

Markets Today: The last day of treading water
The AUD in April 2021

The AUD in April 2021

3 May 2021

The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.

The AUD in April 2021
为什么使用远期合约?-进口商篇

为什么使用远期合约?-进口商篇

20 April 2021

远期合约能够帮助企业控制成本且锁定企业的预算外汇汇率,本文通过例举三个被普遍使用的远期合约策略来阐述进口商们是如何通过这些策略来管理企业的外汇风险

为什么使用远期合约?-进口商篇
NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

16 April 2021

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

9 April 2021

Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Markets Today: SLR and all that

Markets Today: SLR and all that

22 March 2021

The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.

Markets Today: SLR and all that
Currency spotlight: Yen

Currency spotlight: Yen

19 March 2021

This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.

Currency spotlight: Yen
NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

12 March 2021

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

10 March 2021

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Insight

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

26 February 2021

Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion.

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off
NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

12 February 2021

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

Insight

Markets Today: Markets bide their time

Markets Today: Markets bide their time

11 February 2021

Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he addresses the Economic Club of New York.

Markets Today: Markets bide their time
Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in

22 December 2020

You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine.

Markets Today: US pays out whilst UK digs in
NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

11 December 2020

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

Insight

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020

9 December 2020

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Insight

Markets Today: Gone fishing

Markets Today: Gone fishing

30 November 2020

The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.

Markets Today: Gone fishing
Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

20 November 2020

The markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit of lockdowns than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook.

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters
Markets Today: And another one

Markets Today: And another one

17 November 2020

Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.

Markets Today: And another one
Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore

10 November 2020

The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) news that Pfizer have successfully completed stage three of their COVID-19 vaccine trials, with an astonishing 90% success rate.

Markets Today: Markets injected with vaccine furore
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November

2 November 2020

After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.

Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID

6 October 2020

As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to the US economy.

Markets Today: Don’t be afraid of COVID
Markets Today: One big October surprise

Markets Today: One big October surprise

5 October 2020

Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White House as soon as today. So, do the markets take back some of their risk concerns, and focus on the positives of the situation?

Markets Today: One big October surprise
Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?

Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?

25 September 2020

Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened.

Markets Today: Are bailouts bygones?
NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

11 September 2020

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

Insight

Markets Today: Pound pummelled

Markets Today: Pound pummelled

11 September 2020

The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.

Markets Today: Pound pummelled
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

14 August 2020

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

Podcast

Markets Today: Russian roulette

Markets Today: Russian roulette

12 August 2020

Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.

Markets Today: Russian roulette
Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs

11 August 2020

The latest JOLTs (job openings) showed there are 5.9 million jobs available, more than expected, but it didn’t give markets any kick.

Markets Today: No kick from JOLTs
Purpose-driven profit

Purpose-driven profit

22 July 2020

A look at how corporate purpose, responsible investment and government leadership are driving greater outcomes for the economy, environment and society.

Purpose-driven profit
Markets Today: Markets torn

Markets Today: Markets torn

22 June 2020

Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections.

Markets Today: Markets torn
Markets Today: investors run for cover

Markets Today: investors run for cover

12 June 2020

There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to normal.

Markets Today: investors run for cover
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

13 May 2020

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

17 April 2020

The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

16 March 2020

We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits

14 February 2020

The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of COVID-19 infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that the way cases were being measured had changed.

Markets Today: Virus worries; UK Chancellor quits
Markets Today: US equities back

Markets Today: US equities back

4 February 2020

US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.

Markets Today: US equities back
Markets Today: Better

Markets Today: Better

8 January 2020

It’s been a particularly bad 24 hours for the AUD (if you aren’t an Australian exporter, that is).

Markets Today: Better
Markets Today: A quiet day

Markets Today: A quiet day

10 December 2019

Markets have been calm overnight, in wait and see mode ahead of a series of more important events this week.

Markets Today: A quiet day
Connecting capital to opportunity: NAB in Japan

Connecting capital to opportunity: NAB in Japan

19 November 2019

Janari Tonoike, head of NAB Japan Securities Limited, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) new Tokyo-based, wholly-owned subsidiary, showcases the long-standing relationship between Japan and Australia, and explains how the new entity can help investors and borrowers in both markets and beyond connect better in a challenging global business environment.

Connecting capital to opportunity: NAB in Japan
China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019

15 November 2019

Most of China’s indicators relatively weak year-on-year, however, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the October has made this harder to gauge.

China’s Economy at a Glance – November 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

14 October 2019

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
The AUD in September

The AUD in September

9 October 2019

The downtrend in the AUD/USD took a pause in September, where the currency ended the month 0.3 cents higher than where it began.

The AUD in September
Markets Today: New trade hope

Markets Today: New trade hope

26 September 2019

The markets reacted positively to indications from President Trump that a trade deal with China could be close.

Markets Today: New trade hope
Ports: keeping the channels of global trade flowing

Ports: keeping the channels of global trade flowing

23 September 2019

Treasury representatives from Associated British Ports, Peel Ports, NSW Ports and the Port of Tauranga recently met to explore and share their insights on the opportunities and challenges facing port owners and operators.

Ports: keeping the channels of global trade flowing
Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn

Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn

27 August 2019

The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to reform WTO rules and a potential US Iran meeting.

Markets Today: trade war turnaround & Germany downturn
Markets Today: Germany to spend

Markets Today: Germany to spend

19 August 2019

The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession.

Markets Today: Germany to spend
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

16 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
The Forward View – Global: August 2019

The Forward View – Global: August 2019

15 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.

The Forward View – Global: August 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

12 July 2019

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
Markets Today: Tariffs bite

Markets Today: Tariffs bite

10 July 2019

Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business survey data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make their mark.

Markets Today: Tariffs bite
Markets Today: Markets on hold

Markets Today: Markets on hold

9 July 2019

There were no big movements on US equities or bonds overnight, as markets wait to see what Jerome Powell has to say in his Congressional testimonies mid-week.

Markets Today: Markets on hold
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
Infrastructure financing – in for the long haul

Infrastructure financing – in for the long haul

21 June 2019

Investing in infrastructure is a long-term trend that will continue to endure global economic challenges, generating healthy returns and diversification opportunities as investors enhance focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.

Infrastructure financing – in for the long haul
Markets Today: After the Fed

Markets Today: After the Fed

21 June 2019

The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar.

Markets Today: After the Fed
Mortgage lenders primed for growth

Mortgage lenders primed for growth

29 May 2019

We invited Treasury representatives from four non-bank financial institutions and one UK-based asset manager – Liberty Financial, La Trobe Financial and Resimac Group in Australia and Kensington Group and TwentyFour Asset Management in the UK - to an International Round Table to discuss the opportunities and challenges in their respective mortgage and securitisation sectors.

Mortgage lenders primed for growth
Markets Today: Party for two

Markets Today: Party for two

29 May 2019

Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing Treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017.

Markets Today: Party for two
Markets Today: Cold war

Markets Today: Cold war

24 May 2019

There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

Markets Today: Cold war
Markets Today: Soft parade

Markets Today: Soft parade

2 April 2019

There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US.

Markets Today: Soft parade
Is a slowdown coming Australia’s way?

Is a slowdown coming Australia’s way?

25 March 2019

After 27 years of steady economic growth – a record unmatched by any other developed economy – some are asking whether Australia is overdue for a recession.

Is a slowdown coming Australia’s way?
Markets Today: Rock steady

Markets Today: Rock steady

20 February 2019

The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms.

Markets Today: Rock steady
In Focus: Dairy January 2019

In Focus: Dairy January 2019

22 January 2019

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Markets Today: The dollar is dying

Markets Today: The dollar is dying

8 January 2019

Positive sentiment in the US on Friday and in the APAC session yesterday has carried through into overnight markets notwithstanding a downside surprise in the US non-manufacturing ISM report.

Markets Today: The dollar is dying
Markets Today: Good things come in threes

Markets Today: Good things come in threes

7 January 2019

It was far from a quiet Christmas period, with volatility driven by data, trade concerns, a government shutdown and a very different attitude coming from the US Fed.

Markets Today: Good things come in threes
Markets Today: 2018 in Review

Markets Today: 2018 in Review

24 December 2018

2018 has been a year of surprises. In the final podcast for the year, the team discuss the year that was and what to expect in 2019.

Markets Today: 2018 in Review
China opening up opportunities to foreign investors

China opening up opportunities to foreign investors

13 December 2018

The Chinese economy is liberalising and opening up to the rest of the world, paving the way for foreign investors to tap into opportunities in the increasingly wealthy nation, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.

China opening up opportunities to foreign investors
Markets Today: These foolish things

Markets Today: These foolish things

13 December 2018

US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies.

Markets Today: These foolish things
Superfunds turn to venture capital

Superfunds turn to venture capital

7 December 2018

Australia’s superannuation funds are turning to venture capital for the outsized returns the sector can generate and to diversify their portfolios, the 2018 ASFA Conference heard.

Superfunds turn to venture capital
New Year, new opportunities

New Year, new opportunities

3 December 2018

As 2018 draws to a close, we’d like to share some of the achievements of our Corporate and Institutional clients over the past year.

New Year, new opportunities
Markets Today: Can you deal with it

Markets Today: Can you deal with it

30 November 2018

The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.

Markets Today: Can you deal with it
Markets Today: Burning down the house

Markets Today: Burning down the house

20 November 2018

US stocks take a big hit. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with a rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen.

Markets Today: Burning down the house
Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope

2 November 2018

The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply.

Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope
Markets Today: What do I know?

Markets Today: What do I know?

24 October 2018

It has been another bad day at the office for equity markets, beginning in the Asian session and spreading across Europe and the US.

Markets Today: What do I know?
Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you

18 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was on the rise overnight, even as all eyes and ears were waiting on an announcement on the next round of tariffs from the White House.

Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you
Markets Today:  The waiting game

Markets Today: The waiting game

11 September 2018

No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.

Markets Today:  The waiting game
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

6 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

28 August 2018

There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
Markets Today: Not happy Jay

Markets Today: Not happy Jay

22 August 2018

What influence has President Trump’s discontent with the work of Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell had on the markets?

Markets Today: Not happy Jay
Markets Today: Pipes of peace

Markets Today: Pipes of peace

20 August 2018

Speculation the US and China will strike a deal on trade around November has given markets some reason for optimism.

Markets Today: Pipes of peace
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

17 August 2018

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
Markets Today: Play with fire

Markets Today: Play with fire

6 August 2018

Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.

Markets Today: Play with fire
Which way now? Australian infrastructure expertise and cross-border investment flows

Which way now? Australian infrastructure expertise and cross-border investment flows

31 July 2018

As the current phase of privatisations approaches its conclusion in Australia, local infrastructure investors are looking to international markets for investment opportunities. At the same time, global capital that was drawn to the Australian market by the deep pipeline continues to actively pursue Australian deals. This has created significant competition in Australia and seen infrastructure investors increasingly focus on a broader class of assets.

Which way now? Australian infrastructure expertise and cross-border investment flows
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

31 July 2018

Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Markets Today: Closer to fine

Markets Today: Closer to fine

18 July 2018

The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.

Markets Today: Closer to fine
Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain

11 July 2018

The next battle for Theresa May is in Brussels – will the EU accept her proposal, at least as a starting point? Plus, US ‘poised’ to release $200bn China tariff list, puncturing risk-positive offshore sentiment.

Markets Today: Brussels versus Britain
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
Markets Today: Jump

Markets Today: Jump

25 June 2018

President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning.

Markets Today: Jump
Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day

21 June 2018

The markets have moved very little today as investors contemplate the next steps in the tariff battle between the US and China. Even the EU response, with tariffs to follow on Harleys, Levis and Bourbon, did little to stir a response.

Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day
Markets Today: Anything you can do

Markets Today: Anything you can do

18 June 2018

Trade talks between the US and China took a turn for the worse at the end of last week, with the Trump administration issuing a list of $50 billion worth of products that would be hit with a 25 percent tariff.

Markets Today: Anything you can do
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

15 June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
Markets Today: Strong enough

Markets Today: Strong enough

4 June 2018

After the excitement of Parmageddon last week, followed by the sudden enforcement of steel and aluminium tariffs on Trump’s supposed allies, the markets can at last look forward to a more traditional week where data and central bank policy drives the agenda.

Markets Today: Strong enough
Powering into the Australian market

Powering into the Australian market

31 May 2018

Breaking into the Australian renewable energy market with a new mode of financing was a great challenge and a golden opportunity for Goldwind. Three deals later, the company’s aiming to power one million Australian homes.

Powering into the Australian market
Markets Today: Italian Summer

Markets Today: Italian Summer

29 May 2018

Italy looks set to go back to the polls. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at the market reaction on today’s Morning Call podcast.

Markets Today: Italian Summer
Markets Today: Truce

Markets Today: Truce

21 May 2018

Steven Mnuchin says the trade war with China is on-hold, for now, after the agreement that will see China supposedly buying more from the US, but not the reported extra $200 billion worth.

Markets Today: Truce
Yield hungry investors head to Oz

Yield hungry investors head to Oz

17 May 2018

NAB and Asiamoney's latest poll on Asian and European investors’ appetite for Australian debt tells a story of consistency and stability as the region presents a safe option amid turbulence - while also offering sustainable opportunities.

Yield hungry investors head to Oz
In Focus: Beef – May 2018

In Focus: Beef – May 2018

8 May 2018

2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.

In Focus: Beef – May 2018
Alipay has landed

Alipay has landed

7 May 2018

With 1.2 million visitors injecting $10 billion into the Australian economy each year, and almost one third of our international students now coming from China, Chinese custom is big business. Alibaba Australia’s MD explains Alipay.

Alipay has landed
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market

Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market

18 January 2018

The growth of the Reg S bond market has been one of the defining trends of the Asian capital markets in recent years. Driven by the seemingly unstoppable rise of Asian wealth – especially deep-pocketed Chinese investors – US dollar bond sales in the region no longer depend on the participation of US institutions.

Reg S bond market: The rise of Asia’s own dollar bond market
2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

16 January 2018

2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance
South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights

South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights

4 December 2017

This independent report for National Australia Bank (NAB) by the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University, examines the outlook for the South Korean economy and its growing importance in the Asia Pacific region.

South Korea: Perspectives, trends and insights
Essential Asia: Selective optimism

Essential Asia: Selective optimism

15 November 2017

Our 2018 forecasts for Asian currencies reflect the view of reduced impact of Fed’s policy normalisation and more confidence about Asia’s external sector performance and overall growth prospects along a global economic recovery.

Essential Asia: Selective optimism
RMB Roadmap 2018

RMB Roadmap 2018

9 November 2017

While significant progress has been made on liberalising the RMB and opening up the onshore bond and equity markets, there are other structural reforms that need to happen before the floodgates can be thrown open.

RMB Roadmap 2018
Development and diversity: US$ Reg S comes of age in Asia Pacific

Development and diversity: US$ Reg S comes of age in Asia Pacific

8 November 2017

Increased global liquidity, Asia’s growing wealth and the rise of the regional investor base have made the US$ Reg S market an increasingly important source of funding for Asia Pacific issuers. NAB sees US$ Reg S issuance from Australian corporates tripled from 2016 to 2017, with ample room to grow.

Development and diversity: US$ Reg S comes of age in Asia Pacific
Essential Asia: Politicking Policy

Essential Asia: Politicking Policy

10 October 2017

North Korea, China’s Communist Party Congress and Singapore's policy rate decision are on market radar in October, along with Fed’s policy normalisation thereafter.

Essential Asia: Politicking Policy
China: The Bond plot thickens

China: The Bond plot thickens

26 September 2017

China is set to increase foreign ownership of Chinese debt. In the near term, we expect Chinese bond market inflows north of US$1 trillion, but in the medium term inflows of more than US$2.5 trillion would not be beyond the pale.

China: The Bond plot thickens
Clean energy finance to support the transition to a low-carbon economy

Clean energy finance to support the transition to a low-carbon economy

14 September 2017

US$90 trillion in new investments by 2030 have been estimated as necessary to meet the goals of UNCOP21 to address climate change. National Australia Bank (NAB)'s David Jenkins says the opportunity for green bonds to mobilise capital for this transition to a low carbon economy is immense.

Clean energy finance to support the transition to a low-carbon economy
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017

11 August 2017

The July NAB Monthly Business Survey showed a continuation of the strong run enjoyed by the business sector. Business conditions rose to their highest level since early 2008, while confidence also strengthened.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2017
Essential Asia: Greenback in the outback

Essential Asia: Greenback in the outback

4 August 2017

There are some signs of hesitation about pushing Asian currencies to significantly stronger levels than currently. While most will still respond to the US-centric factors in the USD price actions, but some domestic concerns could be kicking in.

Essential Asia: Greenback in the outback
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017

14 July 2017

Revisions to real GDP growth forecasts this month largely reflect a stronger than expected rebound in coal exports following disruptions from Cyclone Debbie in Q1. Further out, we have not fundamentally changed the tone of our outlook.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2017
China Economic Update: June 2017

China Economic Update: June 2017

5 July 2017

In May, international ratings agency Moody’s announced a downgrade for China’s sovereign credit rating, citing the country’s rising debt as a key factor in this decision.

China Economic Update: June 2017
NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017

16 June 2017

The NAB Monthly Business Survey was a little softer in May, but still points to a healthy business sector. Business conditions are elevated and confidence is holding up above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2017
Asian investors and Australian infrastructure: Video

Asian investors and Australian infrastructure: Video

10 May 2017

A confluence of trends will see Asian investors take an expanding role in Australia’s efforts to address its future infrastructure needs, supporting more innovative and customer-centric approaches to infrastructure that meet investors’ financial, sustainability and business development goals.

Asian investors and Australian infrastructure: Video
Asian investors eye Aussie boost

Asian investors eye Aussie boost

10 May 2017

FinanceAsia and National Australia Bank’s latest poll of Asian bond investors shows strong demand to boost exposure to Australia — and a clear idea of which sectors will reap the benefits.

Asian investors eye Aussie boost
Essential Asia: Surface tension

Essential Asia: Surface tension

12 April 2017

The USD’s softness has “strengthened”, ironic as it sounds. Perhaps it is more apt to say that the USD is increasingly depicting a soft Trump environment.

Essential Asia: Surface tension
Demand soars for new green bonds

Demand soars for new green bonds

7 April 2017

As more investors seek to deploy sustainable capital, National Australia Bank says green bond issuers are being offered a golden opportunity.

Demand soars for new green bonds
Essential Asia: Time to get fiscal

Essential Asia: Time to get fiscal

3 March 2017

Our G10 FX Strategists still believe that the dollar can end 2017 higher than it is today, but a resumption of an appreciation trend could well be delayed until H2 2017.

Essential Asia: Time to get fiscal
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

28 February 2017

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017
China Economic Update: February 2017

China Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China Economic Update: February 2017
Simplify your China transactions with Renminbi

Simplify your China transactions with Renminbi

23 January 2017

If you’ve been thinking about improving the efficiency of your importing or exporting business with Australia’s largest trading partner, here’s a more efficient way to settle trade transactions in China.

Simplify your China transactions with Renminbi
RMB Roadmap 2017

RMB Roadmap 2017

10 January 2017

Over the medium term, the use of the RMB as both a trade settlement currency as well as a reserve currency remains a priority. This suggests the scope for an eventual “strong RMB policy".

RMB Roadmap 2017
Cleaning up in Asia

Cleaning up in Asia

20 November 2016

Think ‘China’ and do you think of massive competition or massive potential?

Cleaning up in Asia
Green bonds – fuelling a green economy

Green bonds – fuelling a green economy

16 November 2016

Experts from National Australia Bank say the challenges of climate change and countries' need for infrastructure funding mean the green bond market has enormous potential.

Green bonds – fuelling a green economy
Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns

Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns

20 October 2016

We revisited and reassessed our currency forecasts for Asia, in light of a base case scenario of a Clinton victory as well as the lesser probability scenario of a Trump victory.

Essential Asia: Awaiting emerging patterns
Flight to quality

Flight to quality

23 September 2016

Asia-based bond investors surveyed by FinanceAsia and National Australia Bank are seeking safety in higher-rated credits.

Flight to quality
China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016

12 August 2016

A rebound in real estate investment, new construction activity and industrial demand for related products – such as steel and cement – helped to underpin economic growth in the first half of 2016.

China’s economy at a glance: 12 August 2016
Essential Asia: RMB starts catching up to the USD

Essential Asia: RMB starts catching up to the USD

20 July 2016

The “tsunami warning” has been lowered and the Brexit-triggered shockwaves to financial markets was surprisingly shortlived. The global financial markets have renewed their risk appetite and developed a tentative pattern of hunting for yield.

Essential Asia: RMB starts catching up to the USD
Essential Asia: Within EU’ll Remain, Not!

Essential Asia: Within EU’ll Remain, Not!

20 June 2016

"Brexit" has engendered the risk of further fiscal and monetary easing in Asia and eventually, will renew focus on the widening growth and interest rate differentials with the US in relation to Fed’s policy tightening bias in 2017. We still view this risk as under-priced and an instrumental driver to sustain firmer USD strength ahead.

Essential Asia: Within EU’ll Remain, Not!
RMB Snapshot 2016: The RMB evolves

RMB Snapshot 2016: The RMB evolves

13 June 2016

The RMB flexibility helps to ensure that China is able to retain a meaningful degree of autonomy in its monetary policy. The authorities however are still keeping the volatility of the RMB significantly lower than the DXY and this is likely to persist.

RMB Snapshot 2016: The RMB evolves
Essential Asia: The dollar strikes back

Essential Asia: The dollar strikes back

20 May 2016

Against this strong USD background, we have identified KRW, SGD, MYR, THB, and TWD as being the most vulnerable over the next few months on account of their low carry.

Essential Asia: The dollar strikes back
Essential Asia: The RMB Fog Clears

Essential Asia: The RMB Fog Clears

20 March 2016

Within Asia, those currencies with a greater sensitivity to global moves, like the KRW and SGD, have been amongst the bigger beneficiaries in March.

Essential Asia: The RMB Fog Clears
Essential Asia: The Monkey’s First Leap

Essential Asia: The Monkey’s First Leap

20 February 2016

We think Asian currencies are likely to still be tethered to the RMB, which is still likely to be subject to the authorities’ allowing of corporate outflows to dominate.

Essential Asia: The Monkey’s First Leap
Essential Asia: Interest in Interest

Essential Asia: Interest in Interest

10 December 2015

With U.S. interest rates on the rise, the focus for Asia is likely to shift to the relative ability to cope. Key highlights: With the U.S. Federal Reserve embarking on a path to rate normalization, the focus in Asia is likely to shift to which economies are best placed to cope. Asia is likely to […]

Essential Asia: Interest in Interest
China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses

5 May 2014

Patrick Vizzone, Regional Head of Food & Agribusiness, Asia, Institutional Banking reflects on how the outcomes of last November’s Third Plenary Session of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee may shape the Australian agriculture sector.

China’s reforms & the implication for Aust. agribusinesses