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Markets Today
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
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The AUD in November 2023
The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.
Markets Today – The Cool Out
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
Markets Today – We Found Love
Fed's Waller inches open the US rate cut door
Podcast
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Markets Today – Route Sixty Six
The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – I get knocked down, but I get up again
Another choppy night on bond markets with 10yr yields on net little changed and the curve twist flattening slightly.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
It was a busy 24 hours for data flow globally. Yields partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI bond rally, while equities have held onto gains.
Markets Today – Slow
US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Markets Today – Torn
Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
Markets Today – Just Give Me a Reason
Quiet data wise, but some notable moves in markets.
Markets Today – When the Night Falls Quiet
It was a quiet start to the week for news flow, which was mostly reflected in market movements, though yields are generally higher.
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – Crazy in love
Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.
Markets Today – On Hold
The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.
The AUD in October 2023
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Shake It Off (Taylor’s Version)
Risk sentiment started the week on firmer footing. Equities are higher, the US dollar is lower, and US yields were higher. Brent oil lost 3%, back below $88 a barrel.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
Markets Today – European Disappointment
Weaker European PMIs, and potentially some unwind of yesterday’s move, have seen a stronger US dollar the main mover overnight, up 0.7% on the DXY.
Markets Today – Good Mood (in bonds at least)
A quiet night for data, but a big night for bonds.
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Carefully
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
Markets Today – Here I Go Again
Strong US retail sales sees yields rocket – 10yr yield +14bps to 4.84%
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful
Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]
Podcast
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Be Alright
Global markets were relatively stable overnight ahead of tonight’s key risk event of US CPI.
Markets Today – Hong Kong Garden
Lower US bond yields and softer US dollar lift AUD back above 0.64
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – Work It
Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – Breathe
The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD in September 2023
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
Markets Today – Pour It Up
The sell-off in global bonds continued with fresh cycle highs being set for longer-term yields. The
Markets Today – Closing Time
Todays Podcast UK gilts lead global bond yields higher, Italy and France also up a lot, budget news hurts Treasuries recoil ~10bps from new (4.685%) high ahead of expected government shutdown tomorrow This plus reduced UAW pay demands, news of possible Xi-Biden meet, boosts US equity sentiment, AUD/USD recovers more than 1% of recent losses […]