Key highlights:

• Upwards revisions to past data for household income and profits, as well as partial data pointing to strong growth in Q3, see us revise up our outlook for GDP growth out to mid-2024.
• For the full year, we see GDP growth of 2.3% (from 2.1%) in 2023 and growth in 2024 and 2025 of 1.2% (previously 0.8% and 1.7% respectively).
• We have maintained our view that the Fed won’t hike again this year, but acknowledge it is possible, particularly if upcoming inflation data are on the high side.
• We now don’t see the Fed cutting rates until June 2024 (previously March 2024).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (10 October 2023)