Business Research & Insights

Job switching & intentions, employee satisfaction, working from home & perceptions of collaboration & productivity.

On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, growth contracted in August

Growth remained subdued in Q2.

Are authorities unable or unwilling to address the real problem in China’s economy?

NAB Online Retail Sales Index growth contracted in July.

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

Rising costs are having a big impact on small business owners. The good news: there’s lots you can do to stay one step ahead.

RBA on hold for now but one more rise still likely

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives

Cash rate likely to hit 4.6% as narrow path sinks

A soft start to 2023

Watch the webinar now.

Cash rate likely to pass 4% in the coming months

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

The cash rate at a peak, but upside risks remain

Line-ball April meeting to take rates to 3.85% peak

Growth slows as consumption softens

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Three further hikes to come, cash rate to hit 4.1%

As investors, growth is something we like to see in the economy. While we have entered a period of decline, we see scenarios emerging later in the year that could create growth and upside for equities.

Post-COVID normalisation continues.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

Market sentiment: is it a good time to buy, sell, renovate & other property intentions

Series of 25bp rises ahead; peak rate of 3.6%

50BP rate rise now likely in Oct; 3.10% cash rate by end-22

Australian agricultural commodity prices have continued to unwind, posting a second month of lower prices as measured by NAB’s Rural Commodities Index. This comes against a backdrop of continued excellent seasonal conditions, but elevated input costs and rapidly rising interest rates to control global inflation.

A solid result ahead of a slower H2 2022

We'll help you find the right foreign exchange risk management strategy by understanding your core business and the challenges you face every day.

The “Great Resignation”, Working from Home & Returning to the Office

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.85% by year-end.

Beyond GDP: Insights into wellbeing, and the role money and finances play in our lives.

NAB now expects rates to reach 2.35% by year-end.

Since last month’s wrap, we have seen further gains in most agricultural commodity prices, tentative signs of a stabilisation in fertiliser prices, combined with a lower AUD and a weakening global growth outlook.

RBA rushing to neutral, rates to reach 2.10% by year-end.

A solid result despite virus disruptions early in the year.

An exclusive webinar on Perth’s property market and rent roll insights for real estate agents. Watch now.

Australia’s wellbeing falls, but the gap by income now at its narrowest in almost 3 years. Wellbeing diverging across the country, highest in TAS & lowest in WA. Home ownership a significant differentiator. Household financial stress up slightly but falling for low income earners & rising sharply for those on higher incomes. The share of Australians experiencing some form of financial hardship now at a survey low.

Strong CPI to bring forward first rate increase to May.

The changing workplace - attitudes to jobs, working from home & barriers to returning to the office.

RBA to hike rates in June, July, August and November, followed by a more gradual path through 2023 and 2024.

NAB now sees the first rate hike coming in August; Gradual normalisation to follow through in 2023 and 2024.

Wellbeing rose in Q4 to levels last seen before the pandemic & household financial stress remains well below the survey average.

A strong rebound in activity as lockdowns end.

Despite everything the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown at the small business community the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in Australia.

RBA to hike in November, QE to end in February as expected.

Australia's wellbeing levels fall sharply as lockdowns bite in several states. But financial stress has eased & fewer Australians are experiencing financial hardship.

GDP Q3 2021 – A short and sharp fall, now firmly in the rear view mirror.

NAB brings forward rate rise timing to mid-2023; YCC to end in November given the RBA's lack of commitment; QE to end in February.

NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call and expects economic activity to rebound strongly as restrictions are eased.

GDP surprises, rising 0.7% q/q.

While Sydney and Melbourne remain a key risk to the outlook, NAB re-affirms its 2024 rate call.

Wellbeing up & now at its highest level since 2019. Resilience is building, but wellbeing is falling for the unemployed & low income earners. NSW lockdown a key risk.

Re-Affirming our rate view and an update on the outlook for QE.

YCC to end at Apr-24 and QE to be tapered to $75bn.

GDP Recovers Pre-COVID Levels

NAB recently hosted our inaugural Capital Markets 2021 Virtual Conference for issuers and investors.

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Despite a very strong start to the recovery, the economy is likely to have spare capacity for some time.

We all value our time, but some of us feel we are under more time pressure than others.

Rebound continues as Victoria ends lockdown.

A range of key commodity prices rose in January.

QE to continue, RBA to grapple with ending YCC.

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

A strong rebound as the recovery begins. GDP rose by a large 3.3% in Q3, following the sharp 7% fall in Q2.

October was another mixed month in commodity markets.

RBA cuts rates to 0.1% and announces $100bn worth of QE.

Australians are expecting lasting changes in their post COVID behaviours, but a growing number of us are yearning to return to our “old lives”.

Trends in global commodity prices remain mixed.

A desire for social connection is fundamental to our wellbeing; being deprived of it can pose significant mental and physical consequences.

At a high level, commodity prices broadly strengthened in August (with coal and gold the notable exceptions).

GDP is expected to decline by 5.8% (-5.1% y/y) in Q2 – the largest quarterly fall on record.

Commodity markets have continued to display differing trends.

A number of commodity markets saw stronger prices in June –particularly base metals, gold and oil.

How Australians are changing their behaviours, their biggest fears, and what of the “new normal”.

Trends across commodity markets were mixed in May.

GDP declines on early COVID-19 impacts.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index rapid growth accelerated again in April

The calm before the storm.

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that the rebound in online spend continued in March, with a large jump in sales.

Overall, the global economic outlook has deteriorated since last month, with the downturn expected to far exceed the Global Financial Crisis.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that there was a rebound in online spend in February.

How Australians are changing their behaviours and their biggest fears in response to the Coronavirus.

Fiscal stimulus to support near-term growth, with more likely to come in the May Federal Budget.

Commodity markets generally remain volatile, reflecting the uncertainty presented by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak.

RBA to soon undertake yield curve control, reinforcing fiscal stimulus.

Our data indicates that there was a contraction in online retail sales spend in January relative to December.

A moderate outcome pre COVID-19.

RBA to cut in March and again in April.

A weak result ahead of the Coronavirus outbreak.

Commodity prices have generally retreated in early February in response to the Coronavirus outbreak in China.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that, while slowing slightly, growth continued in December.

RBA likely to stay on hold in February – with labour market conditions buying time. But cuts are still coming.

NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that volatility continues in sales, with a jump in November sales after contracting in October.

Amid conflicting trade signals, signs growth is stabilising

Economic conditions in 2020 are expected to remain unfavourable for commodity markets.

Little support from fiscal policy to see further cuts in February and June, with a move to QE in the second half of 2020 a real prospect.

Consumer growth slows further.

Our NAB Online Retail Sales Index data indicates that after two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October.

Consumption growth remains weak.

After surviving multiple challenges to their market share in recent years, the nation’s wine producers have bounced back and look set to enjoy vintage times.

Next RBA cut delayed to February 2020, with the risk of further cuts and QE by mid-2020 without fiscal stimulus.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% quarter on quarter in Q4 2019.

After a weak mid-year period, online retail sales continued to grow in September, albeit at a more moderate pace than the significant growth rate recorded in August.

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall significantly in Q4 2019.

Private sector stalls.

Private sector weakness continues.

Household weakness persists.

Prospects of another soft quarter.

Household income and construction drag.

Household sector weakness to persist.

Turning 40: Charting the rise of China since reform and opening up

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index rose 0.6% in November on a month-on-month basis, repeating its 0.6% (revised) increase in October.

Healthy momentum continues