• US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace.
• We expect GDP in the current quarter to grow at a similar rate to the March quarter and then strengthen in the second half of the year. We have left our forecasts for US growth unchanged at 2.3% in 2012 and 3.1% in 2013.
• The recent slowdown in employment growth has raised concerns that the marked slowing in the first half of last year (and recession fears) will be repeated.
• However, we don’t expect history to repeat itself as last year’s triggers are largely absent.

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US Economic Update – 11 May 2012 (PDF, 380kb)