Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.
Global growth remains under pressure even with US-China trade dispute pause.
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index has been on the up in recent quarters, in large part due to iron ore prices.
Horticulture exports grow to rival Australian lamb and dairy.
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The Fed is close to cutting rates.
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.
The Bigger Picture – A Global and Australian Economic Perspective – May 2019.
Trade policy turbulence continues to unsettle the global economy.
Trade risks realised.
US-China trade dispute a headwind to growth.
Trade worries overshadow tentative signs of activity stabilising.
Reflecting the sustained strength in iron ore prices, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 0.4% qoq.
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