US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.
We have revised down our forecasts for global growth in 2020 to 3.0%. While in Australia we now expect a small negative for Q1 2020 growth.
Commodity prices have generally retreated in early February in response to the Coronavirus outbreak in China.
Growth likely slowed in Q4.
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Dairy dynamics: prices, drought and costs impacting dairy landscape.
US-China deal reduces downside risks.
Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.
Economic conditions in 2020 are expected to remain unfavourable for commodity markets.
The waiting game – what’s next for US-China “Phase One” trade deal?
Hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets. While in Australia we’ve lowered our near-term forecast for growth.
NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% quarter on quarter in Q4 2019.
US growth has slowed, but remains solid.
With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.
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