In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

Solid headline growth masks divergent trends.

China’s consumers aren’t ready to drive the economy’s growth.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

China’s trade relationship with the European Union.

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

The US-China trade dispute dominated AUD/USD movements in July.

The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.

The global economy remains in reasonable shape right now despite some pressures on Emerging Market economies.

Risk to world growth from trade tensions escalating.

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Economy off to a strong start early in 2018

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