Initial indicators for Q4 suggest the economy continues to perform strongly towards the end of 2018.

Harvest is now underway for 2018-19 winter crop, a season which will likely go down as one of the most mixed in years.

Hands in pockets: Chinese consumers are confident but that doesn’t show up in retail sales data

The bigger picture, a global and Australian economic perspective.

US economy continued to grow strongly in Q3.

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

Solid headline growth masks divergent trends.

China’s consumers aren’t ready to drive the economy’s growth.

The bigger picture – a global and Australian economic perspective.

China’s trade relationship with the European Union.

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

The US-China trade dispute dominated AUD/USD movements in July.

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