GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

2020-21 on track to deliver above average winter crop.

COVID-19 remains a major factor influencing the global economy. While in Australia the RBA has lowered rates to a record low of 0.1% and announced a QE program.

October was another mixed month in commodity markets.

Trends in global commodity prices remain mixed.

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

At a high level, commodity prices broadly strengthened in August (with coal and gold the notable exceptions).

Growth is set to bounce back in Q3, but the recovery lost momentum through July/August.

Demand fundamentals limiting outlook for wool.

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

Commodity markets have continued to display differing trends.

The global economy is forecast to contract by 3.5% in 2020, before increasing by 6.0% in 2021, and 3.9% in 2022.

A number of commodity markets saw stronger prices in June –particularly base metals, gold and oil.

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