GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

Autumn rain lifts EYCI outlook in the short-term.

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

A range of key commodity prices rose in January.

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

2020-21 on track to deliver above average winter crop.