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NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

21 December 2023

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

24 November 2023

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

19 October 2023

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2023

Insight

Markets Today – The Price You Pay

Markets Today – The Price You Pay

27 September 2023

US equity and FX markets have for once pushed the bond market vigilantes out of the spotlight, albeit the weakness in stocks and strength in the USD doubtless owes something to the lagged impact of the earlier run up in Treasury yields to post 2007 highs

Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Markets Today – One More Day

Markets Today – One More Day

20 September 2023

Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.

Markets Today – One More Day
Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023

4 September 2023

NAB sees a +0.5% q/q (1.9% y/y) GDP print for Q2 2023 which will confirm the slowing in domestic demand we have seen across other indicators. Both ABS retail sales data and our own transactions data points to a flat outcome for consumption following 0.2% growth in Q1.

Australian GDP Preview Q2 2023
NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

17 August 2023

Hopes have been raised of a soft landing for the global economy, although a number of headwinds remain. For Australia, our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally but we continue to expect growth to be well below trend in 2023 and 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

20 July 2023

Our forecasts for the global economy are largely unchanged this month we expect growth of around 2.8% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. For Australia, we continue to expect quarterly GDP growth to be flat over the next three quarters, with growth of just 0.5% over 2023 and 0.9% in 2024 as the impact of rate rises flows through.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

22 June 2023

After relatively robust growth in Q1, global activity looks set to slow in the near term. For Australia, we are seeing increasing signs that activity is slowing sharply after a very strong period of growth in 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

18 May 2023

Global economic data point to a bounce in growth in Q1, with China providing around 40% of this total. For Australia, we continue to expect growth to be well below trend at 0.7% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively – though we have reverted to our previous expected rate call of a peak of around 4.1% and see a material risk that rates reach 4.35%.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

20 April 2023

We continue to anticipate a sharp slowdown in global growth in 2023, while for Australia, there are signs that consumption is plateauing ahead of a likely slowdown later in the year.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

23 February 2023

A range of global indicators point to a more positive start to 2023 than we had previously anticipated, leading to an upward revision to our forecasts. For Australia the economy has remained resilient but we see growth slowing sharply later in 2023 and into 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2023

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

16 December 2022

Global business surveys continue to point to a weakening global economy, likely reflecting monetary policy tightening, the energy supply shock as well as COVID-19 related disruptions in China. For Australia, the recent national accounts data showed that the economy remained resilient in Q3 and labour force data continue to reflect a healthy but tight labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

11 November 2022

We see a sharp slowdown in global economic growth next year. To date, the Australian economy has remained very resilient although there are some very early signs of a slowing.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

14 October 2022

Rapidly tightening monetary policy, an energy price shock in Europe and deteriorating domestic conditions in China are set to slow global economic growth to 2.3% in 2023. For Australia, we see growth slowing to well below 2% in each of the next two years, however we do not expect a major downturn.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

16 September 2022

We see global economic growth slowing in 2023. For Australia, we continue to see below trend growth over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

12 August 2022

We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 before slowing to 2.5% in 2023. For Australia, we have pulled back our near-term growth forecasts, with high frequency data showing a slowing in consumption growth. Following growth of 2.2% during 2022, we continue to see below-trend growth of 1.6% through 2023 and 1.8% through 2024.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

15 July 2022

Globally, major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. For Australia, we have not changed our view on the underlying trajectory for the economy but see greater risk for household consumption on the back of higher rates and inflation.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

17 June 2022

Global inflation remains high and showing no signs of easing, placing pressure on household finances. For Australia, we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year and next, upped our near-term inflation outlook and incorporated a new, front loaded rate track for the RBA.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – June 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

13 May 2022

We now expect the global economy to grow by around 3.4% in 2022 and 2023. For Australia, we continue to be optimistic on the economy expecting above-trend growth this year and ongoing strength in the labour market.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – May 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

14 April 2022

The global economic outlook remains clouded by numerous factors, however, we expect that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in 2022 and then slow to a trend- like 3.5% in 2023. For Australia, GDP is expected to grow by a strong 3.4% this year – supported by healthy growth in consumption and ongoing gains in business investment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

11 March 2022

Globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a significant spike in energy prices – reflecting the importance of Russia in the production and export of oil, natural gas and coal, in combination with limited additional supply elsewhere. Locally, the war in Europe poses risks on both the activity and nominal sides of the economy, uncertainty is now highly elevated – but the central-case for Australia’s economy largely remains strong.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

14 February 2022

Globally the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has spread rapidly; the sheer number of cases is disrupting economic activity as infected workers are forced to isolate. In Australia, we have revised up the expected rebound in Q4 GDP, but pulled down Q1 2022 as the spread of omicron weighs on the economy through both consumer caution as well as disruption to business.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2022

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

17 December 2021

For Australia the Q3 national accounts showed a smaller hit to activity than we had expected but we continue to see a very strong snap back in activity in Q4. Globally, advanced economy growth was robust in Q3, and a similar outcome is expected in Q4 albeit with a shift in the source of growth away from Europe towards the US and Japan.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

12 November 2021

We have trimmed our global economic forecasts this month to 5.7% for 2021, however should this occur, it would still be the strongest rate of growth since 1973. For Australia, our internal data and NAB Monthly Business Survey indicate the economy is again rebounding strongly as NSW and Vic reopen following the extended lockdowns through mid-2021.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – November 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

15 October 2021

We have revised our global economic forecasts lower – to 5.9% for 2021. For Australia, a very sharp fall in activity in Q3 is locked in however we continue to expect a solid rebound in Q4 , and strong growth continuing into early 2022.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – October 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

17 September 2021

COVID 19 remains the main risk to the global economic outlook, while in Australia the key risks to our forecasts remain the timing and pace of the easing in restrictions, and further out, the underlying pace of growth as the impact of policy measures fades.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

13 August 2021

Due to lockdowns, we expect to see a large hit to activity in Australia in Q3. Our global growth forecast for 2021 is marginally weaker this month, 6.2% compared with 6.3% previously.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2021

Insight

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’

8 August 2021

Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.

Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

16 July 2021

COVID-19 remains the most significant risk for our global outlook. While in Australia, the current virus outbreak in NSW and associated lockdowns/border closures highlights the uncertainty around economic forecasting at present.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – July 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

16 April 2021

High frequency indicators continue to point to a recovery in the global economy in early 2021. In Australia, the economic recovery continues at a brisk pace with forward indicators pointing toward ongoing strength in activity and the labour market, even as some fiscal support is wound back.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – April 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

12 March 2021

Rising restrictions to combat a resurgence in the spread of COVID-19 towards the end of 2020 slowed the global recovery but did not derail it. In Australia, the economy continues to recover at a rapid pace.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – March 2021

Insight

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

10 March 2021

COVID-19 continues to present some uncertainty around the outlook, particularly with the rollout of vaccines to emerging markets lagging that of advanced economies.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

12 February 2021

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. Whereas in Australia, economic activity continues to rebound strongly.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – February 2021

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

11 December 2020

Globally GDP rebounded strongly across all the major advanced economies in Q3, however the spread of COVID-19 remains a key risk to the outlook. In Australia our outlook now resembles the best-case scenario we outlined at the start of the pandemic, although large uncertainties remain, even with a vaccine seemingly close to being rolled out.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – December 2020

Insight

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Minerals Energy Outlook: December 2020

9 December 2020

Markets have been buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news, which could correspond with stronger economic activity and demand for commodities next year.

Minerals  Energy Outlook: December 2020

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

11 September 2020

Globally, after massive falls in GDP in Q2 across the advanced economies, the latest indicators are pointing to a substantial, but incomplete, Q3 rebound. In Australia, GDP fell by 7% in Q2 – the largest fall in the history of the quarterly national accounts.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – September 2020

Insight

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

14 August 2020

The global economy continues to recover from the impact of COVID-19. However, there is still a long way back with progress. In Australia, we have downgraded our forecasts due to the containment measures in Victoria.

NAB’s World on Two Pages – August 2020

Podcast

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020

12 June 2020

Extremely large falls in Q2 GDP for many advanced and emerging economies are likely, while in Australia we expect a large fall of around 8.5% in Q2, following the 0.3% decline in Q1.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: June 2020
Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020

13 May 2020

Commodity prices generally fell in April – with particularly steep falls in oil and LNG markets, along with declines in iron ore and coal.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: May 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020

17 April 2020

The global economy is in a deep recession due to the rapid and widespread escalation in Covid-19 containment measures since mid-March. While the domestic economy is now expected to see a contraction of an unprecedented speed and magnitude.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: April 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020

16 March 2020

We've significantly lowered our global growth forecasts, and in Australia growth slowed confirming a below-trend pace of growth prior to any virus impact.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2020
NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019

13 December 2019

Unchanged forecasts for Australia with expected growth of 1.75% while across the globe we expect US growth to ease somewhat further and Japan’s economy is set to contract in Q4.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: December 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019

14 October 2019

With growth having slowed in Q2 2019, there appears limited prospect of a turnaround in Q3 – given the relative weakness in business surveys, market expectations and the deteriorating global trade environment.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: October 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019

16 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war has reverberated through financial markets. The policy response will be important - we now expect two further 25bp cuts in the fed funds rate this year. China is also likely to use policy measures to offset any tariff impact, including allowing further depreciation of its currency.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: August 2019
The Forward View – Global: August 2019

The Forward View – Global: August 2019

15 August 2019

The latest escalation in the US-China trade war – with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most remaining China imports – has reverberated through financial markets.

The Forward View – Global: August 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019

14 August 2019

US dollar NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecasted to increase by 2.1% yoy in Q3 2019, however underlying trends remain highly mixed. Higher export prices for LNG and iron ore (despite more recent spot price falls) are the key contributors, while both thermal and metallurgical coal are weaker, as are most base metals.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2019
NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019

12 July 2019

Indicators in major advanced economies point to a renewed easing in growth for the rest of 2019, driven largely by the US economy. Similarly in Australia, we expect growth to continue at a below trend pace over the next few years.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: July 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019

24 June 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is expected to increase by 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q2 2019, a little stronger than anticipated in May.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: June 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019

12 February 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
In Focus: Dairy January 2019

In Focus: Dairy January 2019

22 January 2019

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018

15 October 2018

In US dollar terms, the NAB non-rural commodity price index rose marginally in Q3 2018 – increasing by 0.4% qoq. The strong upturn in the first quarter of this year contributed to a much more significant increase in year-on-year terms – up by 8.2%.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: October 2018
NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018

17 August 2018

Global growth appears to have remained above average through the first half of 2018, but with our leading indicator pointing to a moderation in coming quarters, we think that this will represent the peak for this cycle.

NAB’s World on two pages: August 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018

5 July 2018

NAB’s USD non-rural commodity price index declined by over 3% q/q in Q2 2018. This only partially reversed the large gain made in the previous quarter and, as a result, it is still 7.5% higher than a year ago. The fall in Q2 mainly reflected a decline in iron ore and metallurgical coal prices, although LNG export prices – linked to the price of oil – rose.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: July 2018
Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre

29 May 2018

My ‘whys’ haven’t changed over 25 years at NAB. I’m still driven by the impact economics has on our lives and the importance of delivering independent analysis that helps people and institutions make better decisions.

Keeping my ‘why’ front and centre
In Focus: Beef – May 2018

In Focus: Beef – May 2018

8 May 2018

2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.

In Focus: Beef – May 2018
Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018

20 February 2018

Stability in financial markets over 2017 and early 2018 came to abrupt end in recent weeks, with a surge in market volatility and big falls in equity markets and prices for many commodities.

Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2018
Why peace equals profits

Why peace equals profits

18 January 2018

Steve Killelea, the man behind the Global Peace Index, explains its potential value in helping make investment decisions.

Why peace equals profits
2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance

16 January 2018

2017 was marked by a return to stability following the volatility of recent times and the rise of innovative new products, especially in the green and social sectors.

2017 Year in Review: Corporate Finance
Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture

5 December 2017

Australia’s GDP continues to grow in spite of subdued wages growth and consumer spending. Gaining a greater understanding of how these contradictory trends break down across regional and metropolitan areas, as well as consumer spending categories, is behind NAB’s expansion of its Consumer Spending and Cashless Retail analyses.

Expanding understanding through wider and deeper data capture
In Focus: Beef – November 2017

In Focus: Beef – November 2017

21 November 2017

The Australian beef cattle industry has enjoyed a great run over the past couple of years, with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) hitting a record over 720c/kg in September last year.

In Focus: Beef – November 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017

17 November 2017

The read on business conditions was extremely strong in the October NAB Monthly Business Survey, with manufacturing posting a strong result despite the recent closure of auto manufacturing plants. The conditions index jumped to a record high, and while confidence is not quite as buoyant, it is holding above long-run average levels.

NAB’s World on two pages: November 2017
NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017

13 October 2017

For Australia, outcomes in the September NAB Monthly Business Survey were generally upbeat. Business conditions remain rock steady at levels close to their multi-year highs, but business confidence rose only modestly after a big fall last month.

NAB’s World on two pages: October 2017
US Economic Update: September 2017

US Economic Update: September 2017

8 September 2017

Increasing household wealth (due to rising equity and house prices), as well as a high level of consumer confidence, remain tailwinds for consumer spending.

US Economic Update: September 2017
Gold in focus: July 2017

Gold in focus: July 2017

13 July 2017

Gold began 2017 strongly, up 8% in the first half - despite falling 2% in June. This weakness has continued into early July, with the strong US payrolls data exerting further weakness on gold. However, gold received some support following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony, which the markets interpreted as somewhat dovish.

Gold in focus: July 2017
Markets Today: Muddy Waters

Markets Today: Muddy Waters

12 April 2017

The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions, economic data releases overnight have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed.

Markets Today: Muddy Waters
Cropping locally, competing globally

Cropping locally, competing globally

6 April 2017

Head of Asia Business Development, NAB Business & Private Bank, Laura Mattiazzi recently hosted a roundtable discussion at the Global Food Forum addressing the challenges and opportunities facing cropping industries - and how Australian businesses can compete globally.

Cropping locally, competing globally
NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017

17 March 2017

In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: March 2017
Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017

8 March 2017

Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.

Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017
Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer

Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer

22 February 2017

Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express magazine overnight puts her within striking distance in a run-off with Fillion with 44% of the vote – inspiration for today’s title “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi.

Markets Today: Livin’ on a European Prayer
In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

21 February 2017

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017
Markets Today: Europa

Markets Today: Europa

21 February 2017

With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.

Markets Today: Europa
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing

20 February 2017

Just over a week ago, President Trump promised a ‘phenomenal’ tax announcement in 2-3 weeks, so as the clock ticks down to some form of announcement, market inertia is set to reign.

Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017

17 February 2017

Business surveys and measures tracking the volume of activity suggest that the global economic upturn lifted a notch toward the end of last year and that trend seems to have continued into early 2017.

NAB’s World on Two Pages: February 2017
Markets Today: Down, down

Markets Today: Down, down

17 February 2017

Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.

Markets Today: Down, down
Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind

Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind

16 February 2017

My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.

Markets Today: Why I got March on my mind
Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March

15 February 2017

Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.

Markets Today: Beware the ides of March
India Monetary Policy: February 2017

India Monetary Policy: February 2017

14 February 2017

The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.

India Monetary Policy: February 2017
NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017

14 February 2017

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2017
Markets Today: Crawling back to you

Markets Today: Crawling back to you

14 February 2017

The message in American band Daughtry’s 2011 song later covered (with aplomb) by the Arctic Monkeys is, according to the writer, “Your significant other is in the right and just like she said it would happen, you come crawling back”

Markets Today: Crawling back to you
Markets Today: Alive and kicking

Markets Today: Alive and kicking

13 February 2017

Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.

Markets Today: Alive and kicking
US Economic Update: February 2017

US Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

The US economy continues along the same moderate growth path it has experienced in its recovery from the Global Financial Crisis.

US Economic Update: February 2017
China Economic Update: February 2017

China Economic Update: February 2017

10 February 2017

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China Economic Update: February 2017
Markets Today: Message to my market

Markets Today: Message to my market

9 February 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.

Markets Today: Message to my market
Markets Today: The quiet achiever

Markets Today: The quiet achiever

8 February 2017

In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.

Markets Today: The quiet achiever
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

7 February 2017

It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)

6 February 2017

A bit of early 19th century opera to kick off the week (don’t fret, I’m sure we’ll be back in rock & roll mode for the rest of the week).

Markets Today: William(s) Tell(s)
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

3 February 2017

The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow

Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow

2 February 2017

The major event overnight was the US FOMC meeting where rates were left on hold as expected. There were very few changes to the post meeting statement with the Fed playing a straight bat. Markets were somewhat disappointed with Treasury yields and the US dollar reversing earlier gains that had occurred following stronger than expected US economic data.

Markets Today: Fed plays a straight bat; data goes Boom Boom Pow
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

1 February 2017

More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy

At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy

1 February 2017

Australia’s service sector already accounts for 70% of our GDP and shows no sign of slowing its growth. That means it’s never been more important to understand the where, what and how of Australia’s most important economic driver. NAB crunches the numbers for you.

At your service: a snapshot of Australia’s booming service economy
NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016

31 January 2017

Business confidence has held up quite well and is remarkably steady given the context of major uncertainties both at home and abroad. That said, the level of confidence has not picked up to reflect the overall strength in business conditions seen over the past year or more.

NAB Monthly Business Survey: December 2016
Markets Today: Blue Monday

Markets Today: Blue Monday

31 January 2017

New Order’s Blue Monday is the best-selling 12 inch single of all time in Britain (mmm I wonder how many 12 inch singles are out there!) and is also the longest charting single at 7:25.

Markets Today: Blue Monday
Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017

30 January 2017

While we are receiving many questions about the impact of President Trump’s policies on the outlook for the US and global economies and markets, the most frequent question we are being asked about Australia is “why is NAB forecasting two interest rate cuts in 2017” (in May and August)?

Australian Markets Weekly: 30 January 2017
US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP

30 January 2017

We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy

US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP
Markets Today: Little Red Rooster

Markets Today: Little Red Rooster

30 January 2017

A glance at Friday’s New York opening and closing levels for major FX rates tells us that the latest flurry of US data, including a slightly softer than expected Q4 GDP print and downside miss on headline durable goods orders, came and went without much fanfare. US yields dropped on the 1.9% headline GDP print while currencies and stocks did very little.

Markets Today: Little Red Rooster
Markets Today: Jungle

Markets Today: Jungle

27 January 2017

Sydney music producer Flume claimed the top spot in Triple Js 2016 Hottest 100 yesterday, but many will consider the moral victor to have been Melbournian busker Tash Sultana for her brilliant ‘Jungle’.

Markets Today: Jungle
Markets Today: CPI – Hot Potato (or cold spaghetti)?

Markets Today: CPI – Hot Potato (or cold spaghetti)?

25 January 2017

Today’s 1994 classic Hot Potato by The Wiggles is likely to be seared into the memory banks of parents and children alike – likewise for your scribe. A staple the humble spud may be, but possibly an expensive one in the 4th quarter according to our economists.

Markets Today: CPI – Hot Potato (or cold spaghetti)?
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

24 January 2017

Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby