Key highlights:

• Benign inflation in May and June firms our expectation the FOMC will cut come September.
• A cut at the Fed’s 31 July meeting remains unlikely, but we continue to expect two cuts this year.
• Jobs growth remains solid but the unemployment rate has risen; Fed Chair Powell now considers the labour market to be balanced.
• We expect Q2 GDP on 25 July of 0.4% q/q, another quarter of only moderate growth. We now expect 2024 year-average growth of 2.2% (was 2.3%).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (16 July 2024)