August 8, 2024

US Economic Update – 8 August 2024

Labour market weakness points to a more aggressive Fed easing cycle

Key highlights:

  • The rise in the unemployment rate will accelerate the Fed’s easing cycle, which we still expect to start at the September meeting.
  • We now expect 100bps of cuts this year (previously 50).
  • We pencil in a 50bp cut in September, but a 25bp cut is still possible with two CPIs and one Payrolls ahead of the meeting.
  • We continue to expect slower growth through H2, but do not forecast a recession. While the Sahm-rule recession signal has been triggered, the rise in unemployment has not been driven by layoffs to the same extent as in the past.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (8 August 2024)

2025 NAB Federal Budget Digital Event2025 NAB Federal Budget Digital Event

2025 NAB Federal Budget Digital Event

26 March 2025

Our economists stayed up all night so they could break down the Federal Budget for Australian businesses and individuals. Watch their take.

2025 NAB Federal Budget Digital Event2025 NAB Federal Budget Digital Event

Webinar