Growth slowing

After strong growth earlier in the year, the US economy appears to have slowed in the final quarter of 2018.

We expect to see some further slowing in underlying growth through much of 2019 before stabilising towards the end of the year. This reflects fading fiscal stimulus, past rate hikes by the Fed, a tightening in financial conditions more broadly, and a weakening in global growth. In response, the Fed has shifted its policy stance; now indicating that it will be ‘patient’ as it waits to get a clearer understanding of the economic outlook.

The end to the long-running Federal government shutdown and a downshift in Fed policy expectations has helped markets (partially) recover from their late 2018 tumble.

For further details please see the US Economic Update February 2019