Growth, inflation and labour market all easing
Still expecting a growth slowdown but no recession.
Early data for Q1 2019 point to a further slowing in US economic growth. Consumption growth has softened as has business investment. Moreover, public demand in Q1 will be held back by the partial Federal Government shutdown that occurred through much of January.
Quarterly data can be volatile and in recent years the first quarter has tended to be weak. Against that backdrop, the business surveys provide a useful test of the underlying strength of the economy. Manufacturing surveys show that a slowing in the sector is underway – not surprising given the worldwide downturn – but that it is still growing. Moreover, survey results of the far larger services sector have held up and are at solid levels. Similarly, while consumer confidence has come off a little, it remains at a decent level or better.
For further details please see the US Economic Update March 2019.
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