• Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq.
• Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years.
• Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. However, we still expect a gradual acceleration in inflation over time.

Indicators for the U.S. economy suggest that it grew at an above trend rate in the September quarter; we are expecting growth of just over 3% qoq (annualised rate). The positive sentiment around the economy was only reinforced by the September employment report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 6% for the first time in over six years.

In recent updates we have noted that the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing business surveys have indicated a strong degree of momentum exists in the economy. Both measures gave up some of their recent gains in September, but remained at still strong levels (consistent with around a 4% annualised GDP growth rate).

For further analysis download the full report.

• US Economic Update – October 2014 (PDF, 93KB)