This report presents our forecasts for Australian agricultural exports for 2015-16 as well as estimates for 2016-17. Overall, 2015-16 looks to be a promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports in value terms, supported by a lower Australian dollar.

Beef continues to surge on record prices and elevated demand in the key US 90cl market. We forecast the value of Australian beef exports to increase 25.0% in 2015-16. Beyond 2015-16, we expect lower slaughter rates to pare back export volumes.

Wheat will find support from a lower Australian dollar despite plentiful global supply and a mixed season in Australia with slightly lower production. We forecast the value of Australian wheat exports to increase 6.5% in 2015-16.

Dairy will likewise benefit from a lower Australian dollar and a moderate increase in production this season. This has shielded Australia from the worst of this year’s global dairy price tumult and sees our forecasts for the value of Australian dairy exports rise 3.1% in 2015-16.

Lamb and wool exports are likely to see lower export values, as higher prices are counteracted by lower volumes. We forecast the value of lamb exports to decline 6.0% and the value of wool exports to decline 2.7% in 2015-16.

For further analysis download the full report.

• NAB Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts (PDF; 1 MB)