Gerard Burg

Gerard Burg

Senior Economist

“He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies”

Gerard has over a decade of experience as a professional economist, currently specialising in international economic research. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies, with a particular emphasis on China. He is also a member of the bank’s commodities research team, focusing on trends in iron ore and coal markets.

Gerard joined NAB in 2005, and previously focused on risk analysis across a range of industry sectors in Australia and abroad. He had particular expertise in areas such as Mining, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail, including the development of research into online retail sales. Prior to joining NAB, he was an economist with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, focusing on commodities and energy research.

He holds Bachelors degrees in Economics (with Honours) and Commerce from the Australian National University.


Rise of the machines: could automation help sustain China’s long term growth momentum.

An encouraging start to 2017 – although strength still comes from the old economy, with retail trends disappointing.

From a political perspective, President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the TPP reflected US sentiment against globalisation, particularly in the mid-west rust belt.

China records a comparatively strong finish to 2016, but Trump trade uncertainty adds downside risk to our moderate easing forecast for 2017.

China is similarly an important market for US producers, being the country’s third largest export market in 2015

China’s trade surplus narrowed in November, as a strong month-on-month rebound in imports narrowed the gap.

Since the middle of 2015, the seven-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has been unusually stable – when compared with the extreme volatility in this market over the preceding five years.

China’s economic stability continued into October, however President Trump poses downside risks to the outlook

China’s economy continued to track sideways – but weaker real estate could cool conditions in Q4

Warning signs for China’s financial sector don’t guarantee crisis

The rust belt region has continued to underperform in recent times – as service focussed provinces have driven a greater share of China’s growth. In 2015, the three rust belt provinces were among the four weakest growing regions.

China’s slowdown has hit export dependent East Asia

A rebound in real estate investment, new construction activity and industrial demand for related products – such as steel and cement – helped to underpin economic growth in the first half of 2016.

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