Author

Phin Ziebell

“Responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry, working in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division.”

Phin is NAB’s Agribusiness Economist. He is responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry and works closely in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division.

Phin graduated with bachelor degrees in Commerce and Arts from the University of Melbourne and joined NAB in mid-2014. He was previously an economist at the Victorian Department of Primary Industries and Victorian Treasury.

Recently Published Articles

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020

12 February 2020

Good January rainfall across key agricultural production areas drove the NAB Rural Commodities Index 4.6% higher this month, despite the impact of bushfires and coronavirus.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2020
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019

13 May 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index rose 1.1% in April, largely reflecting higher cattle, lamb, dairy and cotton prices, offsetting further declines in grain.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: May 2019
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019

26 March 2019

Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 0.2% in February – “above water” only due to strong gains in fruit and vegetables, dairy and to a lesser extent wool and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2019
In Focus: Dairy January 2019

In Focus: Dairy January 2019

22 January 2019

Global Dairy Trade auction results have seen some upside since December after a fairly weak run over much of 2018.

In Focus: Dairy January 2019
Transport infrastructure update Victoria: September 2018

Transport infrastructure update Victoria: September 2018

12 October 2018

The Victorian economy has been one of Australia’s fastest growing this year. Given the scope of construction projects now ramping up it's likely transport infrastructure spending will continue to contribute strongly to Victorian growth over the next year.

Transport infrastructure update Victoria: September 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2018

4 September 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was up 0.7% in August, with grain, lamb and wool prices on the rise, but cattle and dairy lower. Continued drought conditions in the east is likely to see elevated grain prices but lower cattle prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: September 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018

10 July 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.4% month on month in June, following a 3.1% gain in May. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in June. The monthly gain reflects strong lamb, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap July 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018

5 June 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 3.1% month on month in May after falling 2.8% in April. On a year on year basis, the index was down 4.4% in May. The monthly gain reflects strong grain, horticultural, dairy, wool and cotton prices.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap June 2018
In Focus: Beef – May 2018

In Focus: Beef – May 2018

8 May 2018

2018 has been exceptionally dry across much of Australia, with knock-on downside to restocker interest and young cattle prices.

In Focus: Beef – May 2018
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018

6 March 2018

The NAB Rural Commodities Index gained 1.2% month on month in February, following a drop of 1.8% in January. On a year on year basis, the index was down 2.9% in February. The gain was driven by higher grain, fruit and dairy prices, offsetting falls in beef, lamb and sugar.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap March 2018
In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018

In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018

23 January 2018

Dairy prices have trended downwards overall since mid last year, and although 2018 has brought some relief in USD terms, the higher AUD has eroded these gains.

In Focus: Dairy – Quarter 1 2018
In Focus: Beef – November 2017

In Focus: Beef – November 2017

21 November 2017

The Australian beef cattle industry has enjoyed a great run over the past couple of years, with the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) hitting a record over 720c/kg in September last year.

In Focus: Beef – November 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017

7 August 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index fell 1.2% in July as generally higher grain prices were offset by weakness across livestock, dairy, cotton and mixed performance in horticulture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: August 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017

3 July 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: July 2017
Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017

6 June 2017

This is the second month of NAB’s new regional price indicators, in effect a separate NAB Rural Commodities Index for every region in Australia.

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017

3 April 2017

The NAB Rural Commodities Index is an index of 28 agricultural commodities weighted by the relative size of each commodity in the Australian agricultural sector.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: March 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017

28 February 2017

Summer has brought extremely volatile conditions to Australia’s cropping districts. While much of eastern Australia has baked in an extraordinary heatwave, Western Australia has suffered substantial flooding.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: February 2017
In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017

21 February 2017

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

In Focus: Grain harvest February 2017
In Focus: Dairy January 2017

In Focus: Dairy January 2017

17 January 2017

2016 was a very tough year for many Australian dairy producers, with farmers beginning the year amid extremely dry conditions in key dairy regions and steep cuts to farmgate prices

In Focus: Dairy January 2017
NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016

28 October 2016

The progress of the season, which has been generally much wetter than average in eastern Australia but dryer in the west, continues to be the major consideration for Australian agriculture.

NAB Rural Commodities Wrap: October 2016
In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

26 July 2016

In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties.

In Focus: Pulses – July 2016
Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16

Rural Commodities Wrap: June 16

30 June 2016

Our expectations for prices in the coming year are underpinned by our forecasts for a generally lower AUD, tracking in the high 60s range in late 2016 and 2017.

Rural Commodities Wrap:  June 16
Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture

4 May 2016

The 2016-17 Budget includes a number of measures for agriculture, relating to water and drought, infrastructure, innovation and trade as well as revenue and savings measures.

Budget 2016-17: Agriculture
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016

20 April 2016

Our forecasts point to Australian agricultural prices trending generally somewhat higher in AUD terms this year, despite challenging international conditions. However, the stronger AUD presents a risk to local prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2016
In Focus: Dairy January 2016

In Focus: Dairy January 2016

18 January 2016

Australian producers have been shielded from much tumult by a lower Australian dollar and a large and relatively stable domestic market.

In Focus: Dairy January 2016
Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts

1 December 2015

This report presents our forecasts for Australian agricultural exports for 2015-16 as well as estimates for 2016-17. Overall, 2015-16 looks to be a promising export year for most major Australian agricultural exports in value terms, supported by a lower Australian dollar.

Australian Agricultural Export Forecasts
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015

17 November 2015

Agricultural markets continue to react to the unfolding El Niño event, albeit in varying directions. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was stable in October.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2015
Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP

3 November 2015

Overall, we assess this year’s El Niño as a moderate risk to farm production. We forecast farm GDP (2% of the total economy) to be flat to moderately lower (0 to -5%) in 2015-16, which will only marginally subtract from headline GDP.

Impact of El Niño on Australian farm GDP
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015

20 October 2015

Agricultural prices continued to diverge in September. Most major grains fell as did fruit, vegetables and trade lamb (reflecting seasonal trends) however dairy prices strongly rebounded and sugar, beef and rice were also higher in AUD terms.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture

19 October 2015

The Trans Pacific Partnership delivers tariff reductions and improved market access for Australian agricultural products. With TPP countries representing a third of Australian agricultural exports, these benefits are potentially significant.

Trans-Pacific Partnership – Highlights for agriculture
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015

1 October 2015

Key Points Agricultural prices diverged in August and into September – protein and fibres generally rose while crops trended lower. Overall, the NAB Rural Commodities Index was flat in AUD terms in August (down 0.1%) and moderately lower in USD terms (down 2.0%). The AUD continued its downward trajectory in August, before sinking below 70 […]

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2015
In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015

9 September 2015

Lamb prices follow a generally seasonal pattern, rising early in the year before declining in spring as spring lamb supply becomes available. Nonetheless, monthly average trade lamb prices have remained reasonably steady through July and into August this year and prices are now well ahead of the same time last year.

In Focus: Lamb Market Update – August 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015

24 August 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index continues to rise in AUD terms (up 4.1% in July), supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2015
In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015

6 August 2015

NAB Agribusiness has revised its national wheat crop forecast up to 21.6 million tonnes for this season, with 23 million tonnes possible contingent on good spring rain in key wheat regions.

In focus: Wheat Market Update July 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015

21 July 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index was steady in June. The neutral result largely reflects higher grain and protein prices offset by sharply lower fruit, vegetable and to a lesser degree sugar prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2015
In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015

25 June 2015

Overall, we expect prices to generally rise in AUD terms for most of these commodities, with the exception of dairy and sugar, reflecting strong demand for beef in particular as well as the impact of a falling AUD.

In Focus: Year Ahead Forecasts – June 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015

15 June 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rebounded in May – up 4.2% in AUD terms and 3.4% in USD terms. The improvement comes off the back of higher beef, lamb, wool, fruit, vegetables and pulses prices, offsetting further declines in dairy.

Rural Commodities Wrap – June 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015

5 June 2015

April saw a renewed rise in beef and lamb prices, combined with stability across major grains, balanced against lower dairy, fruit and vegetable prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – May 2015
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015

1 June 2015

Post-farmgate conditions were lower than expected despite the March and June quarters generally being seasonally the weakest quarters in the NAB Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey.The weakness in the results likely reflects mixed climatic conditions.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – March 2015
In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015

27 April 2015

Cattle prices began to ease in February and continued to fall until late March, before trending upward in early April in line with higher 90CL export prices to the US. Overall, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator fell 4.6% (AUD) month on month to 424.7 AUc/kg.

In focus: Beef Market Update – April 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015

21 April 2015

The NAB Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, fell 1.7% (AUD) and 3.3% (USD) in March, led by lower beef, lamb, fruit, vegetable and sugar prices. Partial data for April to date points to a recovery in beef and lamb prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – April 2015
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014

24 March 2015

The December quarter 2014 saw a rebound in post-farmgate agribusiness conditions, confidence and expected conditions at both 3 and 12 months. However forward orders declined and profitability remained negative. Overall, the sector experienced a more optimistic December quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – December 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015

17 March 2015

The Rural Commodities Index, which covers 28 agricultural commodities, gained 2.1% (AUD) and 0.5% (USD) in February on the back of higher fruit, dairy, fibre and pulses prices, which offset mixed performance across grains and protein.

Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2015
In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015

3 March 2015

Forecast production across summer crops remains divergent. Cotton is likely to see a significant fall in price year on year, as changes to Chinese subsidy arrangements and cheaper synthetic fibres eat into demand, outweighing the impact of reduced Australian supply.

In Focus: Summer Crops – February 2015
Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015

16 February 2015

2015 brings an expanded Rural Commodities Index, which now includes 28 commodities, up from eight. The Index increased 5.6% in January in AUD terms, as sharply higher beef prices - and to a lesser extent higher lamb, dairy and vegetable prices - offset mixed performance across grains.

Rural Commodities Wrap – February 2015
In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook

29 January 2015

Combined with strong industry fundamentals, Queensland saw significant rainfall during December 2014 and January 2015. In response, cattle prices have risen substantially as producers look to restock. However, despite this optimism, a number of challenges remain.

In Focus: Queensland Beef Industry Outlook
Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa

29 January 2015

Since 2008, global quinoa consumption has rapidly increased. In Australia, planting has been concentrated largely in Western Australia. While there are potential benefits from diversification for wheat producers, concerns remain around reliability of yield, weed control and marketing.

Emerging Commodities: Quinoa
Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014

25 November 2014

General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, Khan Horne says the falling Australian dollar is a real boost for agriculture, and combined with the recent announcement of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, conditions for 2015 are looking positive for agricultural exporters.

Rural Commodities Wrap – November 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014

30 October 2014

The latest Post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey shows that while the sector experienced a difficult September quarter, expected conditions for the coming 12 months remain in positive territory at +5.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – September 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014

23 October 2014

The overall price outlook for rural commodities stabilised somewhat in September and early October as a falling AUD blunted the impact of lower global prices.

Rural Commodities Wrap – October 2014
Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices

17 October 2014

Residential electricity prices consist of wholesale, network, environmental policies (such as the Renewable Energy Target), and retail costs and margins. In Q3, wholesale costs were affected by the removal of the carbon tax as well as changes to regulated prices in some States.

Q3 CPI – Electricity Prices
Oil Market Update – September 2014

Oil Market Update – September 2014

2 October 2014

Since our last Quarterly Oil Market Update in June 2014, global crude oil prices have fallen sharply amid ample supply and weak demand combined with an increasing confidence that turmoil in Iraq is unlikely to disrupt supplies.

Oil Market Update – September 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014

29 September 2014

The overall outlook for rural commodities deteriorated in August and September on account of a weak finish to winter rains in many areas combined with forecasts of abundant global grain supplies and lower prices for major agricultural commodities.

Rural Commodities Wrap – September 2014
Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014

11 September 2014

Having fallen for much of the year, wholesale gas prices in the United States and Europe have begun to edge up slightly since July. With the northern summer now coming to a close, mild weather should keep prices in check until the onset of colder winter conditions sees gas use increase.

Natural Gas Market Update – August 2014
Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014

29 August 2014

Australian beef prices are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of a 4 per cent fall in production as producers rebuild herds, according to the latest NAB Agribusiness Rural Commodities Wrap.

Rural Commodities Wrap – August 2014
Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture

15 August 2014

The direct impact to Australian agricultural producers of the Russian Government’s embargo on most food imports is likely to be relatively small. However the secondary impacts are likely to be of greater concern for Australian producers.

Impact of the Russian Food Embargo on Australian Agriculture
Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014

28 July 2014

The 2014-15 Australian wheat season is off to a good start in most growing areas following autumn rain, and domestic prices are at a premium to international levels due to concerns about the impact of a dry spring.

Rural Commodities Wrap – July 2014
Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014

22 July 2014

The latest National Australia Bank (NAB) post-farmgate Agribusiness Survey reports that the sector remains overwhelmingly optimistic about business conditions over the next 12 months, despite the index falling in the June quarter.

Quarterly Agribusiness Survey – June 2014