The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.
Author
Rodrigo Catril
“Rodrigo contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.”
Rodrigo is a Currency Strategist and member of the FX strategy team at NAB. In this role, he contributes to the creation of trade ideas and research publications, and advises our internal and external clients on developments in global foreign exchange markets.
Rodrigo has lived and worked around the world. Before coming to Australia, he worked in London for Henderson Global Investors, firstly as the Head of Risk Measurement and then as a Quantitative Analyst in the Global Fixed Income Hedge Team. In 2009, Rodrigo made his move to NAB as an investment strategist within the private wealth division. He then worked in Rate Strategy for four years, before taking on his role today as Currency Strategist.
Rodrigo was born in Chile, and holds a Bachelor of Commerce, Honours and Masters in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He’s also a CFA charter holder, and has a diploma of Financial Markets (AFMA).
Recently Published Articles
Markets Today – The Cool Out
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD in September 2023
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
Markets Today – Calm before the storm
US equities start the new week in a sedated manner while European counterparts record sharp declines. Front end yields have a led a bear flattening of the UST curve and the USD is a tad softer
Markets Today – Breathe
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
Markets Today – Holiday
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
Markets Today – Hot and Cold
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Markets Today – Play it Safe
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
Markets Today – Marking Time
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
Markets Today – Pump It
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
Markets Today – Better than you
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
Markets Today – The Waiting
US equities closed the week little changed with the S&P 500 in consolidation mode ahead of a new week that includes the FOMC meeting and a busy earnings calendar. UST were little changed and the USD continued its recovery.
Markets Today – Slow and low
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
Markets Today – Getting better
A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.
Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
Markets Today – Singing from the same hymn sheet
US equities began the new week cautiously with hawkish Fed talk and concerns over upcoming earing season playing to the wariness in the air. A decline in UST yields weighed on the USD, but the AUD was unable to perform amid concerns over China and softer bulk commodity prices.
The AUD in June 2023
The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
Markets Today – Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive
Positive soundbites from Biden and McCarthy give hope a debt deal can be reached.
Markets Today – Tread water
Markets are treading water as we await the outcome from the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting and the US CPI data release tonight. US and EU equities have ended the day lower while core yields have edged a little bit higher. Fiscal updates revealed contrasting AU and NZ fortunes while cautiousness in the air has favoured the USD.
Markets Today – No imminent crunch
US and EU equities have closed with modest gains while core yields extended Friday’s rise. The Fed Senior Loan Officer revealed a modest deterioration in lending standards alongside a drop in demand for loans, so no evidence of an imminent credit crunch. The USD is little changed with NZD leading a modest outperformance by pro-growth currencies.
Markets Today – A lot to digest
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
Markets Today – No Help Coming
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
Markets Today – It’s All Good
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
Markets Today – Night of hunters
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
Markets Today – Janet
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
Markets Today: Warning Sign
The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.
Markets Today: Too Hot
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
Markets Today: Edgy
US equities stage a late recovery, but remain edgy
Markets Today: Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
Markets Today: Americans and Aussies spend, whilst UK prices slide
US retail sales soared in January jumping 3% well above the consensus, 2.0% and Sales ex-autos jumped by 2.3%, more than double the consensus, 0.9%.
Markets Today: Fireworks for Inflation Day
The main takeaway being that Americans anticipate income growth to slow and inflation to stay elevated.
Markets Today: Hawkish RBA, open Powell
Powell then also noted how the strength in the labour market underscores why the Fed thinks it could take time to bring inflation down.
Markets Today: A big week for earnings and central banks
The S&P 500 Index closed 0.25% higher on Friday, finishing the week 2.5% higher.
Markets Today: Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tech stocks lead gains in US equities. NASDAQ up just under 2%.
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
Markets Today: Last minutes before Christmas
Equity sentiment has not been helped by a decent sell-off in core global bonds.
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
MT: China unrest hits Aussie dollar in early trade
US equities close the week flat to lower, but with solid gains on the week
Markets Today: ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
Markets Today: One more pivot before Thanksgiving
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
Markets Today: A step too far
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
Markets Today: A slight reality check
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
Markets Today: A welcome relief
It has been a super risk positive night courtesy of a big downward surprise in the US CPI release.
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
MT: Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Big gains in US equities on Friday help extend rally for a second week
MT: ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Markets Today: Where does it end?
Rise in 1y ahead US inflation expectations spooks markets
MT: Massive swings as US inflation stays high
Volatile overnight session sees risk on, risk off then risk on again
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
MT: Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Another volatile session in markets; US equities opened lower, not helped by anticipated news of a bigger oil cut supply agreement by OPEC +.
Markets Today: The day after. No big bounce.
After recording hefty losses post the US CPI release on Tuesday, US equity markets closed with modest gains.
Markets Today: Fed still pushing, BoE pushes back
Risk appetite improves despite hawkish Fed talk
Markets Today: Yields rising as ECB lifts rates
It has been all about the ECB and Fed overnight with the former delivering a jumbo hike and hinting at more to come while Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to act forcefully against inflation
Markets Today: More work for Fed, UK’s massive Truss Fund
A broad rise in core global yields has been the big news overnight, fuelled by a better-than-expected US ISM report and news UK PM Truss is planning a huge debt-funded fiscal stimulus.
Markets Today: Euro inflation hits new high
August has been a terrible month for balance fund investors with no diversification gains from holding a portfolio of equities and bonds.
Markets Today: Aussie yields push higher
Following a negative lead from Asia, US and EU equities have begun the new week on the back foot.
Markets Today: Shopping to the very end
NAB's Rodrigo Catril says the Canadians are out shopping; we also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949.
Markets Today: Retail, wages and RBNZ
After a negative start, US equities managed to end the day in positive territory supported by better than expected earnings reports from retailers.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
There was no let-up in elevated price pressures in the July NAB Business Survey published yesterday, with price indicators accelerating further from the already record highs of recent months.
Markets Today: Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain.
As widely expected, the BoE lifted the cash rate by 50bps and retained the option to act forcefully in the future, the Bank now officially sees a recession in the horizon.
The AUD in July 2022
The AUD/USD opened the month at 0.6903, fell to its monthly low of 0.6682 on July 14 and made a high of 0.7032 on July 29 before closing the month at 0.6985.
MT: Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa
Data releases over the past 24 hours have provided further evidence the global economy is slowing. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI confirmed that China’s reopening rebound is over.
Markets Today: Softer data, harder RBA
A round of softer than expected PMIs on Friday added further fuel to ongoing concerns over a global economic slowdown with the move into contractionary mode for both the EuroZone composite and US Services PMIs the main culprits.
MT: Gas will trickle, Draghi will go, ECB will hike
Draghi’s government looks set to fall after three key parties failed to support him in a confidence vote which could complicate the ECB plans to deliver details on its new anti-fragmentation tool.
Markets Today: Markets set for a tougher ECB
ECB now seen hiking by 50bps tomorrow and then again in September
Markets Today: Independence Day: Recession Resurgence
After a dismal first half, US equities start H2-22 with a positive tone
Markets Today: Understanding how little we understand
Core global yields have been the big market movers overnight with European bonds leading the decline in yields.
Markets Today: Heading for a choppy end to Q2
US equity markets have begun the new week on the back foot with a clear lack of conviction.
Markets Today: Turning up the rhetoric
US and European equities showed signs of stabilisation on Friday, but still ended with sharp declines on the week which was not helped by Fed Chair Powell's words that the Fed has unconditional commitment to restoring price stability.
Markets Today: The day before the dots
Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting we have seen an increase in market volatility across Equity, Rates and FX.
Markets Today: Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen
Rise in oil prices fuels inflationary concerns and the need for central banks to increase their hawkishness.
Markets Today: Rates boosted as US data support aggressive Fed hikes
Reaction to a strong set of US data releases has been the main story overnight
Markets Today: German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out
Brent oil recorded its 8-consecutive day of price increases, supported by expectations of a China reopening in addition to the expected EU Russian oil ban.
Markets Today: Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation
The market found some relief on the notion that the FOMC Minutes revealed a broad consensus for 50bps hikes in June and July and the possibility for a pause later in the year.
Markets Today: China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working
The UK's unemployment rate fell to it's lowest level since 1974 and along with a further pickup in average earnings growth, now see money markets pricing 125bps of BOE rate hikes by December.
Markets Today: US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained
Another volatile session in markets with an upward surprise in the April US inflation data release adding an extra layer of uncertainty
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of reason
Decline in inflation expectations drive core global bond yields lower with further fall in oil prices helping the move.
Markets Today: The week central banks get serious
The NASDAQ recorded its worst monthly performance in more than a decade.
Markets Today: RBA will hike next week
News of Russia’s decision to cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria triggered a 30% jump in EU gas prices at the open before eventually settling 10% higher.
Markets Today: Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face
Eurozone inflation printed a new record high with ECB hawks calling for policy action.
Markets Today: Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars
ECB Lagarde warning of supply and uncertainty shocks from the Ukraine war.
Markets Today: The divided story of rate expectations
It has been a nervous start to the new week with big moves seen in rates, oil and FX markets.
Markets Today: American markets doing well because they are not Europe
Investors are showing a preference for US equities with all three major indices enjoying a decent rebound after yesterday’s decline.
Markets Today: Getting close to the edge
Friday was a day of contrasting fortunes for US and EU equity markets.
Markets Today: ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales
The ECB has surprised markets with an accelerated QE unwinding plan
Markets Today: A glimmer of hope
Markets remain volatile unable to confidently price implications from the news flow given the complex state of the global economy
Markets Today: Hiking away from the fighting
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and sanctions continue to roil commodity markets which were already tight given the increase in demand from a reopening global economy and low inventories
Markets Today: Moderate contagion, so far
News from Ukraine remain bleak with Russia Ukraine talks yielding no resolution while fighting rages on.
Markets Today: More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty
US President Biden is convinced Russia has decided to attack Ukraine
Markets Today: Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Yesterday’s glimpses of risk off vibes have intensified over the past 24 hours with Russia Ukraine tensions the main culprit.
Markets Today: Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)
President Putin spoke to the media saying that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but then added that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously .
Markets Today: US kept working through Omicron peak
US economy brushes Omicron aside with a strong January Labour market report
Markets Today: A tale of two central banks
Equities recovery continued overnight with both European and US markets extending recent gains.
Markets Today: Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
The US economy is travelling with some momentum along side a tight labour market and still elevated inflationary pressures
Markets Today: Looking ahead to a better 2022
US and EU equities rebound overnight with mostly positive Omicron news lifting sentiment while company specific news have also helped the cause.
Markets Today: BoE lifts rates despite everything
Against the consensus view for an unchanged outcome, the BoE unexpectedly also raised rates by 15bps to 0.25%.
Markets Today: It’s all about dots and jabs
US PPI beat expectations fuelling hawkish FOMC expectations
Markets Today: Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
After a solid run in the previous two days, equities are taking a breather with European shares closing lower amid concerns over the need for a new round of covid restrictions.
Markets Today: China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
Positive Omicron reports coming from South Africa alongside an encouraging preliminary assessment from Dr Fauci over the weekend boosted sentiment with overnight news of policy easing in China, an additional bonus.
Markets Today: Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
Omicron uncertainty triggers a rethink on the global economic outlook
Markets Today: A speedy taper and European tantrums
Rising COVID infections around Europe and news that Austria will go into lockdown rattled markets on Friday with 10y Bunds leading a decline in core global bond yields.
Markets Today: Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
Some in the market were positioned for an upside surprise in Australian wages data, but that wasn’t forthcoming, with the data bang in line with expectations at 2.2% y/y, back to pre-pandemic levels.
Markets Today: Europe’s caution, China’s hope
Data, supply and hawkish CB talk push core yields higher
Markets Today: Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
US CPI jumped in October with annual readings printing at new multi-decade highs, the broad base acceleration in prices challenges the transitory narrative and increases the pressure on a patient Fed.
Markets Today: Taking a breather
US equities close slightly higher while Europe starts the new week on the back foot.
Markets Today: Going bond crazy
US equities have remained resilient and oblivious to the volatility seen in rates markets amid increasing concerns over higher inflation and the prospect of Fed funds rate hikes coming sooner than expected.
Markets Today: Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again
US equity continue to march to their own beat, oblivious to softer data releases and volatility in rates markets driven by Central Bank policy uncertainty.
Markets Today: Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
US and European equities have ended the day in positive territory, supported by solid earnings reports and better than expected US data releases.
Markets Today: The inflation debate heats up
The S&P 500 has extended its winning streak to a sixth day with mixed earnings and a subdued Fed Beige report not enough to derail the positive vibes
Markets Today: Inflation and slowdowns. Isn’t there a word for that?
Although the US is less exposed to the energy crunch, supply bottle necks are still affecting its economy, particularly in sectors there is a shortage of workers, raw materials, and chips.
Markets Today: Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen Fed’s tapering intention
US September payrolls were a big miss, but strong revisions to prior months alongside a decline in the unemployment rate and lift in hourly earnings resulted in a relative subdued reaction by markets, suggesting the figures were strong enough to keep the Fed on track to begin its QE tapering programme in November.
Markets Today: Everyone seems happy to kick the can
Risk asset have enjoyed a solid rebound overnight following news that the US Senate had reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
Markets Today: Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
European and US equities rebounded overnight with a stronger than expected US Services ISM supporting the view that it’s all good, notwithstanding the ongoing rise in energy prices and supply bottlenecks.
Markets Today: Lots of movement, not much direction
There have been quite a lot of moving parts to the price action overnight.
Markets Today: Has US inflation peaked?
The market was looking for an ease in US CPI readings and in the end the figures delivered a bit more than expected
Markets Today: Three reasons to be cautious
After a positive APAC lead, equities came under pressure again on Friday night following news the Biden administration was considering a new investigation into Chinese subsidies and their damage to the US economy
Markets Today: ECB, calibrating not tapering
As expected, the ECB will moderate its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) bond buying pace in Q4 with its December meeting now a key event. China makes historic sale of oil reserves weighing on oil prices.
Markets Today: RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
US investors have returned from the long weekend in a cautious mood. US and EU equities are broadly weaker with big tech outperforming, helping the NASDAQ stay on the green. Core yields are also higher with supply and ECB meeting on Thursday factors at play.
Markets Today: Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Ahead of US payrolls on Friday the decline in ADP private payrolls report overshadowed a better than expected ISM manufacturing print. The ADP miss points to downside risk to payrolls on Friday (the bad news), implying a likely delay to the Fed’s tapering decision (the good news).
Markets Today: Powell maintains taper silence
The lack of a starting QE gun alongside a strong message that there is a stricter test for rate hikes compare to QE tapering resulted in a risk positive reaction to the much-awaited Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A QE tapering decision remains live, although now November looks more likely than September.
Markets Today: High hopes keep getting higher
In a low trading environment, equities have edged higher again with procyclical sectors leading the way. The bond market continues to catch up to the positive vibes evident in other markets with core yields higher across the board.
Markets Today: Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Risk assets have enjoyed a positive start to the new week with European and US equities extending Friday’s rebound. After a positive lead from Asia, European and US equities closed the Monday session with gains across the board, extending Friday’s rebound.
Markets Today: Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
US equities recover into the close calming market sentiment. Spike in VIX and rotation into defensive/tech stock point to a cautionary tale. European equities cannot escape the negative vibes from Asia
Markets Today: Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
The negative vibes from our APAC session extended overnight with softer than expected US data releases not helping the cause. US retail sales were broadly softer, and the NAHB housing market index also came in weaker than expected.
Markets Today: US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’
Friday was all about US payrolls and the report did not disappoint. Along with solid employment gains, there were improvements in the other metrics of the US labour market edging us one step closer to a Fed tapering announcement. Market reaction to the data saw the UST curve bear steepened with the 10y UST Note testing 1.30% while the USD ended the day broadly stronger.
Markets Today: Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up
Mixed US data and hawkish take on Fed Clarida shake markets. ADP is a big miss, US ISM a big hit.
Markets Today: More caution on manufacturing undershoot
US equity markets have begun the new week in a tentative manner with a nervous feeling in the air. A slightly softer, but still elevated ISM print added fuel to peak growth concerns and the UST curve bull flattened.
Markets Today: US GDP was better than it looks
US Q2 GDP was the data release to watch overnight and while the print missed expectations, a healthier US consumer that seemingly can’t get enough was the bright spot and carried the day.
Markets Today: Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
After an initial hint of contagion, European and US equities looked past Asian concerns over China’s regulatory crackdown, closing the day with modest gains at or near record highs. Meanwhile the real story in the rates markets has been the record move decline in the 10y US real rate.
Markets Today: OPEC drip feeds more oil
The Aussie dollar is under pressure because of global market uncertainty over COVID says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast.
Markets Today: More inflation, RBNZ moves first
More inflation signals with the RBNZ moving towards rate rises. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there are no signs that other central banks will be following in a hurry.
Markets Today: Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
Following a positive lead from Asia, US and EU equities have kick started the new week with a positive tone.
Markets Today: 2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
The ECB’S new strategy has driven the Euro higher in a market which has generally been driven down by COVID concerns. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
Markets Today: Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
The RBA is focused on data not dates, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call. It’s data from the US and Germany that’s added caution to markets overnight, along with rising concerns about China.
Markets Today: The last day of treading water
Despite lots of data for markets to chew over, they are looking for a directional lead from non-farm payrolls, says NAB’s Gavin Friend. Whether they’ll get it or not is the question.
Markets Today: Confidence rising but so is the Delta strain
Reopening and vaccines are helping economies, but the Delta variant is still a concern for markets says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, explaining today’s sideways moves.
Markets Today: Aussie dollar caught in the storm
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week hitting a two-month high after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price?
Markets Today: Market unphased by US CPI
US CPI was a higher than expected but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride.
Markets Today: Markets going nowhere yet US job openings boom
Bond yields are pushing lower and market volatility is easing.
Markets Today: US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot
Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday.
Markets Today: Taper torment
There was speculation that the Fed would taper sooner rather than later.
Markets Today: No surprises from the RBA
The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now.
Markets Today: RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down
The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year.
Markets Today: Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concern
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transitory.
Markets Today: Inflation, confidence and retail
Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports.
Markets Today: Vertigo and inflation fears
The risk off mood is being driven by increasing inflation concerns.
Markets Today: Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits
Inflation expectations continues to influence markets.
Markets Today: Let’s not get carried away
The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7.25 percent.
Markets Today: Will the BoE taper before the Fed?
The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory.
Markets Today: Yellen’s rates call surprises
Janet Yellen surprised the markets uggesting it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the economy from overheating.
Markets Today: Demand beating supply
Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic.
The AUD in April 2021
The AUD/USD traded in a 2.86c range in April with a low of 0.7532 recorded on the first day of the month while a high of 0.7818 printed on April 29.
Markets Today: The price of supply chain disruption
It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have been strong.
Markets Today: Treading water
Markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow morning.
FX and your business weekly podcast: 19 April 2021
A new podcast series to help small to medium sized businesses make sense of current market movements.
Markets Today: Bitcoin stalls but US economy set to rip
There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace.
Markets Today: Earnings up; oil shoots higher.
Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market.
Markets Today: Vaccine slow down & inflation sign
It’s been a session with mixed messages.
The AUD in March 2021
The AUD/USD averaged almost exactly 0.77 over the month.
Currency spotlight: NZD
This podcast focuses on the New Zealand dollar – what’s been happening and what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
Markets Today: SLR and all that
The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage ratio (SLR) ending on 31st March.
Currency spotlight: Yen
This podcast focuses on the Japanese Yen – what’s been happening over the last 12 months and NAB’s forecast.
Markets Today: Fed pushes bond yields up
There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting with bond yields rising sharply.
Markets Today: Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing
The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout.
Markets Today: Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout
The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries.
Markets Today: Low US inflation
The story of the day was the softer US inflation numbers which saw yields pull back and helped stocks rise.
Markets Today: Turning away from tech as yields push higher
US Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries.
Markets Today: Bond yield rising sharply
Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight.
Markets Today: Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues
Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%.
Markets Today: The battle to be king of the doves
Central bankers are fighting amongst themselves as to who can sound the most dovish.
Markets Today: Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high
Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019.
Markets Today: US equities fall; pound rises
There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipated jobless claims, showing its not a smooth recovery for the US.
Markets Today: Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on
Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P 500 did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell.
Markets Today: Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints
Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside.
Markets Today: UK & US blossom while Europe struggles
The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts, and that seems to be the major focus of markets right now.
Markets Today: Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance
All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday.
The AUD in January 2021
After the big gains during November and December last year, the first month of 2021 has been a period of consolidation for AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed
The markets have so far been unmoved by the FOMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little.
Markets Today: Is Biden’s honeymoon over already?
Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy.
Markets Today: Bond yields rise as Powell puts paid to tapering
Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year.
Markets Today: Treasury appetite is still strong
With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling.
Markets Today: US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea
There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours.
Markets Today: One minute to midnight on US & UK-EU deals
The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return.
Markets Today: Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic
Equities have climbed higher in the US and Europe on the hopes two deals will be struck this week.
Markets Today: A big day for Europe
Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson have been meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal.
Markets Today: UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy
The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back.
Markets Today: Gone fishing
The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel.
Markets Today: Lane’s credit concerns
The ECB’s Philip Lane expressed concern about the tightening of credit standards which could impede the European recovery.
Markets Today: Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high
New positivity with the Dow breaking 30,000 for the first time, due in part to hopes for; a vaccine and a peaceful transition for the Biden administration.
Markets Today: Lockdowns & infections overshadow more vaccine news
Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news.
Markets Today: And another one
Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness.
Markets Today: Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine
This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising.
Markets Today: Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps?
Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structural differences highlighting the need for the fiscal stimulus that now seems unlikely to happen this year.
Markets Today: Prepare for a bumpy start to November
After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the difficult job of determining how to see the economy through rising infection numbers.
Markets Today: Markets hit hard
Markets have been hit by concerns over COVID-19 and the US election aftermath.
Markets Today: COVID concerns get classic risk-off treatment
Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven currency of choice.
Markets Today: A calm Friday, but it could be a volatile week
After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US.
Markets Today: Risk off mood as virus cases rise
There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks.
Markets Today: The Aussie coal ban and earnings caution
The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours.
Markets Today: Markets take a hit as Trump ditches stimulus talks
There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted about the need for it whilst in hospital over the weekend.
Markets Today: A word from your central bank
What more can central banks do to help stabilise the global economy?
Markets Today: Fed says 3 years near zero
US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting.
Markets Today: Vaccine by year end
Shares climbed in the US on the hope Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year.
Markets Today: Pound pummelled
The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement.
Markets Today: US equities hit again
US equities have had a third session with substantial falls.
Markets Today: US jobs coming back but “harder from here”
US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day.
Markets Today: Equities hit
There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks.
Markets Today: Europe’s prices drop; US shares rise
Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise but the markets are still adjusting to the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy.
Markets Today: Aussie and NZ dollar flying high
The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session.
Markets Today: High hopes and higher equities
There’s continued optimism in the markets with equities reaching new highs again.
Markets Today: Looking on the bright side of life
US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe.
Markets Today: No trade talks; Democrats swing into action
US-China trade talks have been called off for the foreseeable future with little market impact.
The AUD in July 2020
The AUD/USD in July was a tale of two halves.
Markets Today: Jobs, stimulus and bond yields
Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity?
Markets Today: Russian roulette
Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinating key workers in the next few weeks.
Markets Today: Is gold indestructible?
Gold has broken the $2,000/ounce mark, so is it making a run for it?
Markets Today: Lockdowns abound; still no US fiscal deal
The Australian economy will take a hit from the stage four lockdown in Melbourne, but it’s not alone.
Markets Today: Will Congress keep the money rolling-in?
The US dollar lost a lot of ground last week as Congress argued over the shape and form of the next recovery package.
Markets Today: race to splash the cash
Europe's done it, Australia's done it. Now it's the US' turn to extend their fiscal support, and the deadline is looming.
Markets Today: Extending JobKeeper and vaccine hope
Scott Morrison will unveil changes to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs today
Markets Today: Vaccine hopes then China tensions
Equities in the US spent most of the session rising, driven by the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s experimental vaccine has being fast tracked in the US.
Markets Today: Split between the economy, virus and China
Which way will the markets be pulled this week?
Markets Today: Roaring back, a bit
The US President declares the economy is roaring back following 4.8 million new jobs in June.
Markets Today: virus ‘out of control’ yet equities still rise
Dr Fauci has declared the virus as ‘out of control’ in the US and more measures need to be brought in to contain it.
Markets Today: Easing Volcker
The easing of banks’ investment rules contained in the so-called ‘Volcker Rule’ has helped to boost stocks.
Markets Today: PMIs to help show shape of the recovery
In a day that’s been light on news, markets have had a chance to take a more positive outlook, pushing equities higher and the US dollar lower.
Markets Today: The impact of lockdown easing
The markets lost a chunk of optimism last week.
The AUD in May 2020
After a solid April, the AUD/USD began May with some trepidation dipping below the 64 cents mark a few times early in the month
Markets Today: Fed not pulling back till 2022
The US Fed has reiterated that they will do whatever it takes to protect the US economy, with inflation expected to remain below 2 percent through to 2022.
Markets Today: The recession we only just had to have
Australia has entered a recession but, as Josh Frydenberg was quick to point out yesterday, the Q1 fall in GDP was miniscule compared to most of the rest of the world.
Markets Today: Aussie rises further
It’s all good news as far as the markets are concerned, pushing the Aussie dollar even higher.
Markets Today: China goes cold on Aussie coal
The Australian dollar has lost ground as China threatened to ban imports of Australian coal.
Markets Today: Equities rebound despite “new cold war”
Equities have staged a broad-based rebound and are expected to continue as markets reopen in the US and UK.
Podcast
Markets Today: Back to work & back to the trade war
The US President has said the US needs to get back to work, vaccine or not.
Markets Today: Job woes, US tensions & China’s rebound
The US and Australia have both reported dour job numbers, although markets were braced to expect it.
Markets Today: Markets worried over longer lockdowns
There’s been a swift reversal in sentiment.
Markets Today: Lifting lockdowns but the debt remains
Two questions remain over the COVID-19 crisis: when is it safe to lift lockdowns and what will the debt-impact be on the economy?
Markets Today: Airlines take a beating; German judges to rule on QE
Airline stocks have taken a heavy hit after Warren Buffet’s decision to bail out at the weekend.
The AUD in April 2020
April was a very rewarding month for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Markets not entirely convinced on the V
There’s still talk of a v-shaped recovery in the US.
Markets Today: Bad news abounds but markets are positive
US unemployment registrations have added another 4.4 million, European PMIs hit record lows and the EU failed to reach an agreement on how to fund a recovery package for Europe.
Markets Today: Oil rout spills over
Oil rout sours risk sentiment across the board.
Markets Today: EU fiddles whilst equities rise
There’s more optimism today that countries are reaching the peak of COVID-19, which is pushing US equities higher.
Markets Today: Monumental hope from markets
Equities have bounced back in a big way on hope that countries will start to ease restrictions and get more people back to work.
Markets Today: US & Europe – two sides of the same coin
Equities in Europe are on the rise. Equities in the US are on the slide.
Markets Today: Hibernation, but for how long?
Other parts of the world are getting ready for a lockdown that could last a few months.
Markets Today: Flying blind, destination unknown
Equities are on the rise in the US and Europe.
Markets Today: brief respite on hopes of US stimulus deal
Markets reversed a little overnight with US and European equities rising.
Markets Today: another black day
Despite extreme measures by the Fed yesterday and the return of QE, markets were far from impressed.
Markets Today: RBNZ latest to cut in global moves
The RBNZ has slashed rates this morning to a quarter percent.
Markets Today: Markets in turmoil
Markets are in free fall as containment measures impact heavily on business.
Markets Today: Oil plunge sparks Black Monday
There has been a massive fall in oil prices.
Markets Today: Fed emergency cut doesn’t halt the carnage
The US Fed dropped interest rates by 50 basis points in an emergency cut.
Markets Today: Further falls on virus news
Markets continue to respond to news reports highlighting the (admittedly slow) spread of COVID-19.
Markets Today: COVID-19 spreads further; core bond yields fall
There was a strong risk-off mood on Friday due to the spread of the COVID-19 infections and the impact it's having on the global economy.
Markets Today: COVID-19 jitters hit Asian currencies
Asian currencies have born the brunt of rising concerns over the spread of COVID-19 beyond the Chinese mainland.
Markets Today: Apple sparks concern over virus impact
Markets have returned to adopting a more cautious approach to the impact of COVID-19, after Apple said it didn’t expect to meet its forward guidance.
Markets Today: Caution as China gets back to work
There seems to be hope of an early recovery to the impacts of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: China cuts tariffs, Aussie retail pushes rate cuts back
The sun continues to shine on the equity market with the S&P500 making a new record higher, +0.3% to 3,344.
Markets Today: Markets reading the numbers and preying on hope
As this week wears on the combination of more positive news is able to lift markets, even while the Coronavirus continues to show no signs of slowing down.
Markets Today: And then the rebound, for now
Since Monday the markets have dived, then climbed back again.
Markets Today: Australia paying price on virus concerns
The Australian dollar – and emerging markets more broadly – were hit by further concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.
Markets Today: Corona concerns & Trump targets Europe
US equity markets have regained composure but will news of a lockdown of the Wuhan district fan further volatility?
Markets Today: Trump talks it up but US equities stall
Whilst President Trump was self-aggrandising at Davos, US equities stalled.
The AUD in December 2019
December was a good month for risk assets and the AUD, as the US and China agreed on their much-awaited Phase 1 trade deal and key global economic data releases improved.
Markets Today: Brexit risk returns
The pound took a hammering after Boris Johnson indicated the end of 2020 will be a firm deadline for Brexit, deal or no deal.
Markets Today: D-day for trade talks & UK government
Two significant deadlines today means, whatever happens, we can expect some volatility.
Markets Today: Aussie rises; Fed holds
The Fed has announced no moves on rates in the US, with no expectations for cuts in 2020.
The AUD in November 2019
The AUD/USD drifted lower over November as progress towards achieving a Phase 1 US-China trade deal slowed, casting doubts on the likelihood of a deal in coming weeks.
Markets Today: RBA week, oil volatility, Merkel’s coalition in danger
It’s an important week for Australian markets, with a slew of data today, GDP released on Wednesday and the RBA meeting between them.
Markets Today: Lowe on QE; US equities up
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said QE wouldn’t happen in Australia until interest rates got down to 0.25%.
Markets Today: China uncertain, Boris boosted
Sterling has been the biggest mover as Boris Johnson pulls ahead in the polls.
Markets Today: Markets living on high hope
US equities finished last week on new highs on the hope the phase one trade deal between the US and China is close.
The AUD in October 2019
The AUD/USD rose during October on the back of improved global risk sentiment, courtesy of progress on US-China trade talks and Brexit developments.
Markets Today: President talks but gives nothing away
The US President offered nothing new about where trade talks are at and the markets little moved.
Markets Today: High hopes & gentle turning point
With nothing concrete to go on, markets continue to factor-in optimism over the US-China trade talks.
Markets Today: high on jobs growth
US equities hit new highs again on Friday.
Markets Today: US stocks flying high on hope
US stocks are on the rise as optimism for a trade deal intensifies.
Markets Today: pound hit by election hope
The pound weakened as Boris Johnson calls for an election on December 12th.
Markets Today: Brexit Bill proceeds, then stops!
The market reaction has not been favourable to the latest Brexit events.
Markets Today: Brexit & US-China deal optimism
The pound has already weakened on the latest Brexit delay.
Markets Today: Brexit see-saw & Aussie employment bonus
The early market response to a new Brexit deal and Aussie employment numbers.
Markets Today: More talk before truce
There’s a little apprehension in the markets this morning because the US China trade deal might not be a done deal.
Markets Today: Two big slugs of positivity
US-China trade talks and Brexit negotiations both look like some sort of deal could be reached.
Markets Today: Markets respond to a glimmer of hope
There’s a risk on mood in the markets today.
The AUD in September
The downtrend in the AUD/USD took a pause in September, where the currency ended the month 0.3 cents higher than where it began.
Markets Today: Q4 off to a bad start
It’s a sea of red for global equities and US bond yields.
Markets Today: Markets brush off yesterday’s news
US equities are on the rise as markets brush off concerns over the lack of progress on US China trade talks
Markets Today: USD close to two year high
The US dollar index (DXY) reached over 99.3, close to a two-year high.
Markets Today: Impeachment talk knocks markets
Impeachment proceedings against the US President has hit equities, bond yields and oil prices hard.
Markets Today: Trump pours cold water on trade hopes
Hopes of a quick resolution to the US China trade dispute seem as unlikely as ever.
Markets Today: Fed turns hawkish
The Federal Reserve cut rates but didn’t give a clear indication of further cuts or promise the return of QE.
Markets Today: Saudi aftermath – winners & losers
Brent Crude rose 20 percent at the market open on Monday morning, the biggest single move since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Markets Today: Draghi’s (almost) last stand
A stimulus boost from the ECB is widely anticipated.
Markets Today: Bond yields rising
Globally yields are on the rise again.
Markets Today: US manufacturing shows cracks, Brexit delays & Aussie GDP today
Very soon it’s likely that the UK parliament will take the first step to delaying Brexit, allowing for yet more negotiating time with the EU.
The AUD in August 2019
Offshore events dominated AUD movements in August as the US-China trade war escalated again and pressure for the Fed and other Central Banks to do more also increased.
Markets Today: New month, new tariffs, new uncertainty
In the US new tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in over the weekend,.
Markets Today: Markets fall after yesterday’s false hope
Markets have taken a hit as much of yesterday’s optimism subsides.
Markets Today: A divided Fed & a failed bond auction
The FOMC minutes released highlight the divisions in the Fed at their last meeting.
Markets Today: USD, equities & bond yields rise
A wave of positivity seems to have hit the markets.
The AUD in July 2019
After making a high of 0.7081 on July 19th it was pretty much one-way traffic south for AUD/USD from then until month end.
Markets Today: Forecasts revised as trade tensions rise
The US President hinted that a resumption of trade talks with China wasn’t a done deal, adding uncertainty in an already shaky market.
Markets Today: Germany & NZ send markets on a rollercoaster
It’s been a hectic 24 hours, with shares falling them climbing back, with bond yields doing the same.
Markets Today: Market Frenzy on Chinese trade response
Markets continued in risk-off mood as China announced its response to President Trump’s threat of extended import tariffs.
Markets Today: Fed decision, Aussie & European inflation, & the falling pound
Get ready for a busy 24 hours.
Markets Today: Draghi ignores the freefall – for now
The latest IFO readings have shown a sharp downturn.
Markets Today: China trade talks next week
US shares were doing well ahead of the news that trade talks would resume between the US and China next week.
Markets Today: Cuts out of context
There was a reversal of fortunes on Friday as the NY Fed clarified comments from their President John Williams the day before.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus helps
China's industrial production numbers were far better than anticipated.
Markets Today: Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
The US payrolls data was stronger than expected on Friday.
Markets Today: Trade slow; yields lower
Trading has been thin as US markets closed for the 4th July holiday.
Markets Today: Carney’s shipwreck
Global bond yields have fallen after BoE Governor Mark Carney warned of a shipwreck to the global economy if trade tensions intensify.
AUD Annotated Chart: June 2019 and FY2018/19
June was another month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: False hope on G20?
Markets seem to indicate a little optimism on the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this weekend.
Markets Today: Record low yields in Europe
Risk adversity drives yields to record lows in Europe.
Markets Today: The Fed, Lowe, BoJ & Bojo
The Fed has kept rates on hold but have kept the door wide open for future rate cuts.
Markets Today: Lower inflation, yields & rates
There are rate meetings for the FOMC, Bank of Japan and Bank of England this week, as well as the ECB Forum opening in Portugal tonight.
Markets Today: Rate cut expectations rise; Gulf unrest grows
The Aussie dollar was the worst performing of the major currencies overnight following yesterday’s unemployment numbers.
The AUD in May 2019
The AUD/USD came under pressure in May, as renewed trade tensions saw the currency break through the 70-cent floor it had been testing since early February.
Markets Today: China’s stimulus boosts equities – for a bit
China is doing what it can to boost infrastructure investment.
Markets Today: An optimistic ECB despite everything
The Euro rose today after the ECB spoke little of new measures to combat the economic downturn.
Markets Today: Powell’s balancing act; Lowe hints at more cuts
There’s been a sharp rise in US equities after comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, signalling rate cuts are likely.
Markets Today: Trade battles drives further uncertainty
The market continues to adjust to the expectation that the US-China trade spat won’t disappear in a hurry.
Markets Today: More risk off, rate cut talk & downward revisions
How far do US stocks need to fall before the President takes note and tries to resolve the US-China dispute?
Markets Today: EU election aftermath
There are repercussions being felt across the continent following the election.
Markets Today: Will Powell and Lowe hint at rate cuts today?
Bond yields have risen slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s talk today - will he give a strong hint a rate cut is coming? And will Philip Lowe from the RBA be doing the same?
Markets Today: US against the rest
Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar.
Markets Today: Markets hit as China bites back
Stocks, currencies, bonds and commodities have all felt the impact as China responds to US tariffs.
Markets Today: Tariff deadline hours away
The imposition of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports is just hours away.
Markets Today: Will the RBA cut rates today?
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the RBA could cut interest rates today.
Markets Today: US week-end tariff spat
The US President has been on Twitter in the last few hours threatening to lift tariffs on China by the end of the week
The AUD in April 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a range of just over 2 cents in April, with (very) brief and small-scale forays above and below the 0.70 to 0.72 range that had confined it since early February.
Markets Today: the world waits for the Fed
It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press.
Markets Today: Credit where credit is due
The OECD suggests China’s stimulus measures may only offer short term benefits but the markets are happy to ignore the long term impacts.
The AUD in March 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a tight range of just 1.65 cents in March, the narrowest range since August 2014 and closed the month at 0.7096, essentially right back to where it started.
Markets Today: China numbers boosts risk appetite
Last week finished on a positive note, sparked by a strong bounce back in credit growth in China, together with very strong export numbers.
Markets Today: Near half century low for US jobless claims
The US dollar was helped overnight with surprisingly low jobless claims numbers in the US.
Markets Today: Caution ahead of a busy day
There’s certainly a more cautious mood today.
Markets Today: Good things come in three?
There are three bits of news driving optimism in the markets.
Markets Today: Markets calmer; Aussie takes a hit
The markets are a lot calmer after yesterday’s rally in shares and sell-off of bonds. And the Kiwi and Aussie dollars have taken the biggest hit out of the major currencies.
Markets Today: Bonds run hot
A risk-off mood saw moves to US Treasuries with big falls in yields and shares.
Markets Today: US recession talk & EU helps kick the can
The markets seem a little spooked with big falls in equities in the US on Friday.
Markets Today: May Day for UK hits Sterling
So what now for Brexit? Plus the marked reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts.
Markets Today: Playing hardball
Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US.
Markets Today: Risk on as US retail sales bounce back
US stocks rose sharply following the release of US retail numbers which showed a bounce back in January.
Markets Today: Australia joins the downturn
Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday surprised many.
Markets Today: US data is bad but not Eurozone bad
The US saw some poor economic data on Friday yet bond yields rose as did equities.
The AUD in February 2019
The AUD/USD was conflicted in February, as improvements in risk sentiment and higher commodity prices pulled the currency higher, but a softer domestic economic outlook and a more dovish RBA acted as an offsetting force.
Markets Today: EU doldrums, UK hope & China’s complication
Three pieces of news drove sentiment overnight.
Markets Today: China deal close & another vote on Brexit
There’s been significant progress on the two stories that have hindered markets this year.
Markets Today: Rock steady
The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms.
Markets Today: Kiwi spikes on less dovish RBNZ
The NZ dollar jumped 1.7 percent yesterday after the RBNZ indicated they weren’t expected to change rates till 2021.
Markets Today: Wall talk stumbles, Brexit can kicked further
Talks at averting another US government shutdown ended in deadlock at the weekend.
Markets Today: Waiting on address before deciding direction
Trading volumes have been lower ahead of President Trump’s State of Union address.
The AUD in January 2019
The AUD/USD traded in a larger than usual range in January.
Markets Today: Fed more patient, UK parliament more unicorn
The Fed's stance has had a strong impact on markets in the immediate aftermath.
Markets Today: Apple, Brexit & the US Fed
The US equity markets are mixed ahead of the Apple earnings results.
Markets Today: US open for business as earnings fall
Equities took a hit as Caterpillar, a bellwether stock, missed its quarterly forecast, showing that the tariff war isn’t just hitting the Chinese economy.
Markets Today: Where have all the good times gone?
A blue day on the global markets.
Markets Today: China to go shopping, UK to vote again?
There was renewed hope at the tail end of last week the answer to the US China trade dispute isn’t far away.
Markets Today: Delays, good and bad
There’s still no sign of an end to the US China trade dispute as the end of the cease-fire period draws closer.
Markets Today: A sea of red
Equities, oil and bond yields are all down.
Markets Today: China Car tariffs reversed & a government shutdown
A positive reaction to reports China might drop tariffs on US car imports reversed by threats from President Trump about a possible government shutdown if he doesn’t get the funding to build the wall.
Markets Today: Is US-China deal euphoria hiding the real picture?
Equities were boosted overnight by the positive (temporary) deal between the US and China.
The AUD in November 2018
After rallying at the beginning of the month, AUD/USD mostly range-traded between 72 and 73 cents during the rest of November.
Markets Today: Tariffs off, for now
An agreement was reached between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting over the weekend.
Markets Today: Brexit fears, more US tariffs & Powell close to neutral
President Trump is threatening more tariffs – this time on car imports.
Markets Today: US warning on China & the Fed’s new neutral
President Trump has threatened China again, suggesting the prospect of tariffs at the year end is real.
Markets Today: GM closures; oil bounces back; Italian hopes
There was a spark of confidence in the markets overnight as equities rose in the US, along with a bounce back in oil and a rise in Treasury yields.
Markets Today: No love to share at the end of Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving week finished with a rapidly falling oil price and questions over the strength of growth in the US economy.
Markets Today: Oil rises, stocks rebound, China warned
Oil and equities have bounced back up.
Markets Today: Back where we started from
Oil prices and US equities are back close to where they were at the start of the year.
Markets Today: Pound soars as Brexit draft deal done
A first Brexit milestone could mean a volatile 24 hours or so for Sterling.
Markets Today: Brexit and a bucket of salt
With just 137 days until Britain leaves the EU, how low could the pound could sink given the rising uncertainty?
Markets Today: RBA, mid-terms & the law of the jungle
We can expect a relatively quiet 24 hours trading as the world waits for the results of the US mid-term elections.
Markets Today: Big moves based on small bits of hope
The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply.
The AUD in October 2018
The AUD/USD continued its downtrend in October, reaching a fresh low of 0.7023 on the 26th of the month, a level not seen since February 2016.
Markets Today: Dollar hits highs on scary European growth numbers
The US dollar hit new highs on the back of a falling Euro and Pound.
Markets Today: A swift reversal in choppy waters
US equities reversed their declines with a sharp rise overnight, ahead of today’s GDP numbers.
Markets Today: US jittters, Europe soft, Canada & Sweden hawkish
The US stock market took another hammering overnight, with a move to safe-haven treasuries.
$100 oil – what would it mean for the USD and AUD?
AUD/USD positively correlated to oil prices more often than not.
Markets Today: Risky end to China’s Golden Week
Equity markets took a hammering overnight. China felt it worst after their Golden Week holiday.
Markets Today: Oilmaggedon & the great treasuries sell off
Could oil reach $100 a barrel? And why have US treasury yields leapt forward overnight?
The AUD in September 2018
September was a challenging month for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Mambo Italiano
The Italian budget wasn’t as easy to resolve as the markets had hoped.
Markets Today: Take outs from the FOMC meeting
The FOMC lifted interest rates in the US this morning with the expectation of another hike in December.
Markets Today: Draghi gets vigorous and oil soars
Oil reached a multiyear high.
Markets Today: Aussie wins because of (or despite) tariff uncertainty
Whilst China has promised to retaliate against the US tariffs, it hasn’t gone as far as it could.
Markets Today: Tired of waiting for you
The Aussie dollar was on the rise overnight, even as all eyes and ears were waiting on an announcement on the next round of tariffs from the White House.
Markets Today: Treasury yields fly high, US optimism soars
US 10 year Treasuries are closing in on 3 percent again, as expectations firm on two further rate hikes this year.
The AUD in August 2018
International and domestic events have added to the AUD/USD volatility.
Markets Today: Brexit bluster, Aussie data & NZ rate cuts possible
Quieter markets didn’t help the pound which fell on further UK-EU disagreement on Brexit and more speculation on a leadership challenge.
Markets Today: Is the US getting tougher on trade?
Are hopes of a US-China trade deal waning?
Markets Today: US consumers happy even as clock ticks on so many deals
US consumer confidence is the highest its been in 18 years, even as the US trade deficit worsens, largely through weaker agriculture exports.
Markets Today: Not happy Jay
What influence has President Trump’s discontent with the work of Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell had on the markets?
Markets Today: A short squeeze on Treasuries?
Treasury yields drifted lower in the US today.
Markets Today: US China trade talks offer glimmer of hope
Markets turned on their head a little today, as the possibility emerges of trade talks between the US and China before the end of the month.
Markets Today: Turkey concerns ease; the lowdown on the NAB Business Survey
Markets seem less concerned about the troubles in Turkey.
Markets Today: More tit for tat makes it feel real
The markets are a little subdued this morning.
The AUD in July 2018
The US-China trade dispute dominated AUD/USD movements in July.
Markets Today: Dirty talk
Dirty trade talk rattles the markets.
Markets Today: US ‘economic turnaround’ brought forward
The US has boasted about the economic turnaround evidenced by Friday’s GDP figures.
Markets Today: Handbrake on car tariffs; Facebook lands facedown
Equity markets got a boost from the news Trump and Juncker have reached an agreement to halt further tariffs but tech stocks took a dent from the sharp fall of Facebook’s earning results.
Markets Today: US and China prepare for the long game
China’s burst of confidence, irrespective of trade talks, is helping the Aussie dollar, but will it continue if the uncertainty continues?
Markets Today: Trump ready to go the full 500
What will be the impact of a prolonged trade war? Is it bad news for the Aussie dollar?
Markets Today: UK rate rise (slightly) less certain
Could slowing inflation cause the Bank of England to rethink the prospect of an August rate rise?
Markets Today: Closer to fine
The move higher in front end yields boosted the USD, although the greenback was already on the ascendency early in the overnight sessions.
Markets Today: Stocks and oil tumble
The US has imposed extra tariffs on Chinese imports. Gavin Friend discusses the market reaction.
Markets Today: Mayday for the Tories
The markets outside of the British Isles have seen some positive sentiment, including Australia.
Markets Today: Hawkish bankers and positive numbers
The Fed, ECB and the BoE seem a little more hawkish, indicating that, whatever is going on in the background, their economies seem to be faring well.
Markets Today: Kiwi slides, trade confusion and EU’s blind summit
The New Zealand dollar has taken a hit. Meanwhile markets remain confused and concerned about the continuing trade tensions.
Markets Today: Jump
President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning.
Markets Today: Trade Tariff Ambivalence Rules the Day
The markets have moved very little today as investors contemplate the next steps in the tariff battle between the US and China. Even the EU response, with tariffs to follow on Harleys, Levis and Bourbon, did little to stir a response.
Markets Today: All quiet except on the oil front
There’s been very little movement in anything overnight, except the price of oil.
Markets Today: On FOMC-eve, a Bromance, a Brexit win and the NAB Business Survey
There was little market reaction to the big deal between Presidents Kim and Trump.
Markets Today: Will the ECB unwind? Less news means more risk-on
The market has turned its focus on what the ECB will say about the timetable for unwinding its QE program when they meet next week.
Markets Today: Oil, NAFTA and the Conte Controversy
Further speculation that NAFTA talks might fall apart, strong data from the US and UK, and a look ahead to today’s GDP figures for Australia.
Markets Today: Italian Summer
Italy looks set to go back to the polls. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at the market reaction on today’s Morning Call podcast.
Markets Today: Risk-off mood on a raft of growth concerns
Italy’s new government, Turkey’s emergency rate hike, the failing China trade deal, the UK’s weakening inflation, slow growth in Europe, tensions over Iran – there’s a lot to be concerned about.
Markets Today: US stocks rise and NAB pushes back date for assumed rate hike
The positive news regarding China has seen stocks rise in the US today but there has been little movement on Treasuries or the US dollar.
Markets Today: What if Trump’s headline promises don’t come to pass?
President Trump has been making headlines with peace treaties and trade pacts, but what if they don’t happen? North Korea has threatened to pull out and now the President is saying the China talks may not be successful.
Markets Today: US Treasury Yields, Stocks & Oil up on Iran decision fallout
Markets react firmly to the US decision on the Iran Deal and the news the markets don’t want to hear about the Italian government.
Markets Today: The week ahead for the Dollar, China, Iran, Argentina and Brexit
Will the US dollar rally continue this week?
The AUD in April 2018
April was a month of two halves for AUD/USD. Get the picture with our annotated chart.
Markets Today: Is it ‘Mission Accomplished’ for the Fed?
Words from the Fed have had little impact on the markets, across all sectors, except oil and gold, which rose on the news that not much has changed.
Markets Today: Iran is Trump’s next challenge
Tapas Strickland suggests the markets are getting used to the US President’s style and that could ease concerns over future Trumpisms.
Markets Today: 23 April 2018
If Steven Mnuchin reaches a trade pact with China, will it create enough confidence to push the Aussie dollar out of its trading range?
Markets Today: And the beat goes on
In a busy #MorningCall podcast @NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks to Phil Dobbie about US earnings, trade concessions, IMF forecasts, UK wages, Chinese retail, the RBA minutes, Bank of Canada, and more!
Markets Today: Run over by a truck
It’s company earnings and global politics driving markets today. @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to talk about President Trump, Shinzo Abe, Theresa May, Michael Cohen and the next Deputy Governor of the US Federal Reserve.
Markets Today: Possibly Maybe
Another day, another direction for US equities. Today they’re back up (for now) on easing tensions over Syria (for now). Join @NAB’s Gavin Friend and Phil Dobbie on #TheMorningCall.
Markets Today: Trade war, real war and soft payrolls
On #TheMorningCall today @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on the impact of trade war rhetoric and the fallout from Syria. Plus softer payrolls from the US on Friday.
AUD Annotated Chart: March 2018
March was a month of two halves for the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: The Heat Is On
Equity markets fall then bounce on China tariffs, then talks of trade talks. Get up to speed on the #tradewar latest on #TheMorningCall from @NAB.
Markets Today: Mo Money Mo Problems
The FAANGs bite back – on #TheMorningCall Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a slight market bounce, plus rising funding costs for the US government.
Markets Today: 23 March 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril and asks, is this the start of a trade war good and proper?
Markets Today: We used to be friends
The share markets rebounded today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s a positive sign that the reaction was contagion from tech stocks rather than anything more lasting.
Markets Today: It ain’t over til it’s over
The UK and the EU have seemingly reached a transition deal that changes very little till the end of December 2020, when Britain goes it alone.
Markets Today: Breathe
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the market reaction to this, and to Theresa May’s announcement that 23 Russian diplomats will be sent packing in response to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.
Markets Today: 14 March 2018
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Cattril about the market impact of a President following a “my way or the highway” agenda.
AUD Annotated Chart: February 2018
In February the AUD/USD gave back all of its January gains and some more. February was a month characterised by an increase in market volatility, particularly in equities amid US inflationary concerns alongside a rise in US bond yields and their implicit valuation concerns for physical and risk assets.
Markets Today: 8 March 2018
Who keeps some balance on trade now Cohn has quit? Phil Dobbie talks to @NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the volatility around President Trump’s growing tariff talk
Markets Today: We are the champions
The markets continued to react to President Trump’s stance on steel tariffs, with his resolve seemingly increasing over the weekend.
Markets Today: Superman
Lots of numbers out overnight but it’s politics driving the markets right now, with President Trump saying he will sign the order next week to impose tariffs on steel imports.
Markets Today: That don’t impress me much
Today’s Podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether they could lift bond yields, particularly given low interest in this week’s big auctions from the Treasury. Gavin also explains why the UK’s jobless figures are not as bad as they seem, how Brexit talks are reaching the pointy end, and what will be the consequences […]
Markets Today: 20 February 2018
The US Treasury plans to issue $151 billion in bonds today, $258 billion across the week.
Markets Today: Who let the dogs out
USD is set to close lower for a 4th consecutive day and US equities look set to climb for a fifth day in a row
Markets Today: Crumblin’ down
US equities extend Friday’s rally and Europe joins the party.
Markets Today: Dog days are over
Well it might be too early to call the recent rout in equity markets over, but price action over the past 24hrs suggests calmness has returned with European equities rebounding while US equities are relatively steady.
Markets Today: Helter Skelter
To some, The Beatles’ Helter Skelter planted the inspirational seeds for heavy metal.
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: January 2018
The AUD/USD started 2018 in the same manner it ended 2017. The currency strengthened in January, trading in a 3.4 cents range during the month and ending at 0.8055.
Markets Today: Blowin in the wind
The USD has resumes its downtrend with Euro strength the main culprit and with USD indices trading sub key support levels the big question is how long will the Dollar fall, if only Bob Dylan new the answer.
Markets Today: The only way is up
UST yields have led the sell-off in core global bond yields and for a change the USD has responded to the UST led rise in yields and outperforms across the board.
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: December 2017
The AUD/USD started December on a positive note boosted by USD weakness amid tax reform uncertainty and news reports speculating on Russia’s intervention in US politics.
Markets Today: 10 January 2018
Oil prices trade to a new three year high and excluding JPY, the USD is stronger across the board. Meanwhile, US equities have made new highs, yet again! and all major European indices closed in positive territory.
Markets Today: 8 January 2018
A mixed US labour report and softish ISM non-manufacturing print had minimal impact on the USD and US Treasury yields while global equities have continued on their merry way higher amid a supportive global economic backdrop.
Markets Today: Vote-A-Rama
US equities have started the week on a solid footing boosted by the prospect of US tax reform becoming law later in the week.
Markets Today: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man
US equities retained the negative tone seen during the European session and have been unable to trade in positive territory amid concerns over the prospects for US tax reform.
Markets Today: The Letter
Amid light trading US equities are a little bit higher (NASDAQ is flat) and European equities closed in positive territory.
Markets Today: The beat goes on
If it wasn’t for Friday’s US labour market data, Lionel Richie’s “All night long” would have been a great option for a title today, highlighting PM May’s sleepless effort to strike a deal about a deal with the EU.
Markets Today: Show me the money!
The USD is stronger against most currencies and the AUD has given back all of yesterday’s gains amid overnight softness in metal prices.
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: November 2017
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in November 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
Markets Today: Summertime
Summer has begun in Australia today, it’s Friday and we have had a risk positive night.
Markets Today: It’s all good (very good)
Nothing like starting the day with some good old Australian hip hop. Funkroar 2011 hit “it’s all good (very good)” nicely captures the key upbeat message from Fed Chair Yellen appearance before Congress alongside the better than expected US and EU economic data.
Markets Today: Same Love
It has been a pretty busy night with Fed Chair in waiting Powell appearance before a Senate committee, mixed US data releases, confirmation of UK-EU Brexit bill (after some confusion), North Korea launching a ballistic missile and lastly the US Senate Budget Committee has just announced a tax bill has been sent to the Senate for voting.
AUD/USD Annotated Chart: October 2017
The month that was for the AUD. The key events in October 2017 that impacted the AUD/USD.
NAB AUD Corporate FX update: November 2017
The key drivers behind NAB’s AUD/USD and AUD cross-rate forecasts
Markets Today: She is leaving home
The overnight session saw an improvement in risk sentiment with European equities closing in positive territory while US equities are also having a good day so far.
Markets Today: Talking Heads
Caution remains the main theme in markets with equities softer on both sides of the Atlantic weighed down by the energy and materials sectors amid softer oil and metal prices.
Markets Today: Rumour Mill
Equity markets hit a jittery patch overnight with selling seen across Europe and the US.
Markets Today: Lord don’t slow me down
Admittedly I never heard this Oasis song before this morning and I was surprised to learn that it was a top 10 hit in 2007.
Markets Today: Nobody’s baby
After a sleepy start to the week markets have awakened over the past 24hrs.
Markets Today: Taylor
The USD has continued to eke out small gains amid ongoing speculation over Fed Chair nomination, US equities are flat (DJ briefly traded above 23k for the first time) and commodities are mixed.
Markets Today: I’m waiting for the man
It has been a quiet start to the week in the Northern Hemisphere, but of note the USD is slightly stronger across the board and commodities also had a good night.
Markets Today: A momentary lapse of …
Pink Floyd’s first album without Roger Waters “A Momentary Lapse of Reason (Inflation?)” probably captures the key take-away from the Sep 20 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Markets Today: Pound the alarm
After taking a breather, the USD has regained its mojo partly driven by concerns over other currencies along with a supportive domestic backdrop.
Markets Today: Running on Faith
While equity markets had a day of consolidation, the USD and US Treasury yields had a decent move higher aided by increasing hopes over US Tax reform.
Markets Today: Doctor! Doctor!
USD indices closed in negative territory on Friday, but managed to recover a bit of ground in the overnight session, thanks to a rise in UST yields and a softer CAD after a mixed employment report.
Markets Today: All eyez on me
"All Eyez On Me" is a single by 2Pac’s fourth album by the same name and it is one of the most acclaimed hip-hop albums of the 1990s.
Markets Today: When you say nothing at all
Well I never thought I was going to use Ronan Keating for a morning note tittle, but he just said it the best.
Markets Today: Jackson
Yesterday’s USD resurgence accompanied by an improvement in risk appetite and hopes of progress on US tax reform came to an abrupt end courtesy of President Trump threat of a government shutdown, if funding isn’t included for the border wall promised in his campaign.
Markets Today: Gone Daddy gone
The lack of key data releases and major corporate earnings news contributed to Friday’s quiet trading session with major US equity indices trading in and out of positive territory.
Markets Today: Animal
Looking through Spotify this morning I was surprised to see that “Animal” is quite a popular song title. I was going with Pearl Jam 1994 hit, but then I noticed I could have gone with Deft Leppard or more recently Ellie Goulding or Kesha would have also done the trick.
Markets Today: Jump
Looking at the overnight chart US equities opened lower following the moves from Europe and Asia.
Markets Today: Bridging the gap
Bridging the gap is a song by American rapper Nas and as a tribute to his father the song aims to bridge the gap from blues, to jazz, to rap.
Markets Today: Summer Time
The Dow Jones moved up to 22000 for the first time ever boosted by Apple’s better than expected sales report - Apple shares rose 4.7% to 157.14 after posting a 7% increase in revenue.
Markets Today: Breaking up is hard to do
Brent oil rose back above the $52 mark punching through its 200MDA and now is almost 10% up month to date.
Markets Today: Never make a move too soon
As expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged overnight.
Markets Today: Levels
The AUD reached an intraday high yesterday of 0.7968 but has traded with a softer tone during the overnight session.
Markets Today: How much a dollar cost
The USD sell off that began yesterday during our day session continued overnight following senate Republicans’ failure to push through their healthcare reform.
Markets Today: I love it
After trading to an overnight low of 0.7605, the AUD has staged a decent recovery reaching an overnight high of 0.7643 and settling around 0.7640 currently.
Markets Today: Little Wonder
Bowie’s song titles have an amazing suitability for morning note titles, lyrics on the other hand don’t always suit.
Markets Today: Every day I love you less and less
As summer times kicks into full mode in Europe, ECB President Draghi play list is slowly but surely moving away from the likes of Olivia Newton John “Hopelessly devoted to you” , being replaced by more upbeat tunes such as Kaiser Chiefs “Every day I love you less and less”.
Markets Today: You say tomato, I say tomahto
A lingering risk off tone remains evident in markets with equities on either side of the Atlantic ending the day with small losses.
Markets Today: Easy
On my way home last night I thought the Spice Girls were a strong candidate for a song title today. Brexit negotiations started overnight and Wannabe (“Tell me what you want”) would have been a good option.
Markets Today: Calm before the storm
It has been a quiet overnight session ahead of what could be a stormy Thursday with the ECB, UK election and Comey’s testimony all occurring on the same day.
Markets Today: Strong enough
Sheryl Crow’s hit ”strong enough” finds Crow frustrated in a relationship and asking the question, "Are you strong enough to be my man?". ell Friday night was all about the US jobs report and no doubt a similar question (without the man bit of course) crossed investors’ mind.
Markets Today: The end of May
It has been a quiet end to the month of May, nevertheless the month has ended with a few themes raising question marks over the near term outlook for markets.
Markets Today: Mind the Gap
Ahead of a long weekend US equities ended the week in a relatively subdued note, oil prices recovered a bit of lost ground since the drop in prices post the OPEC’s production cuts extension announcement and US treasury yields were little changed.
Markets Today: USD higher ahead of FOMC Minutes
European and US equities have continued to edge higher amid a mild risk positive tone in the overnight session.
Markets Today: Dollar Days
The recovery in US equities continued on Friday and unlike Thursday, European equities also managed to record some gains.
Markets Today: Fuel
Wow! If you are looking for a quick wake me up antidote, try playing Metallica at 5:30 in the morning, trust me you won’t go wrong.
Markets Today: Playing with fire
The RBNZ made its policy rate announcement a few minutes ago and while the OCR was left unchanged at 1.75% as expected, the Bank failed to deliver a tightening bias.
Markets Today: After the after party
After just over 24 hours since Macron’s French presidential election win, the Euro and European equities are feeling a bit hangover following a solid run in the previous two weeks.
Markets Today: Sitting, waiting, wishing
News on Apple’s earning report have hit the screen in the past hour showing revenue and iphone sales slightly missing expectations.
Markets Today: Much ado about nothing
It has been a relative quiet session in markets with US politics dominating the headlines.
Markets Today: Groove Armada
US equities have come under pressure in the past few hours weighted down by a sharp fall in oil prices following reports of an increase in gasoline inventories.
Markets Today: Muddy Waters
The global macro picture has been muddied by a rise in geopolitical tensions, economic data releases overnight have been largely ignored and safe haven assets have outperformed.
Markets Today: A little less conversation
Titles for our Markets Today note are a great topic of conversation with colleagues and clients alike.
Markets Today: Chilled end to a big quarter
A negative end by US equities to Friday coupled with upcoming risk events suggest the AUD and NZD are likely to tread water at the start of the week.
Markets Today: Under pressure
European and US equities have brushed aside the negative lead from Asia which saw the Shanghai composite down nearly 1% on the day and its fourth session of declines.
Markets Today: It ain’t over ’til it’s over
The UK Brexit letter has finally been delivered, but market reaction has been fairly muted.
Markets Today: No way Jose!
The USD (BBDX) was little changed on Friday while US equities and US Treasury yields ended the week a little bit lower reflecting a mild risk off tone.
Markets Today: Don’t let me down
Some mornings coming up with a title is a real struggle and then others like today you are spoil for choice. I have no idea if Donald Trump is a Beatles’ fan, but if he is ‘Don’t let me down’ would be one of those songs that he couldn’t get out of his head right now.
Markets Today: Parting Shot
US equities have reversed about half of yesterday’s post Fed rally, the USD is a little bit softer and UST yields are a little bit higher.
Markets Today: When tomorrow comes
It has been a quiet overnight session with markets essentially marking time ahead of key risk events tomorrow and later in the week.
Markets Today: ECB Creaking Door
As expected the ECB left its key interest rates and QE programme unchanged, but a more optimistic Draghi has helped the EUR performed and it has also pushed bond yields higher.
Markets Today: Sense of doubt
When nothing else springs to mind, David Bowie songs are always a handy source for a daily note title.
Markets Today: Hot n’ Cold
Hot n Cold is one of Perry’s 2008 hits and is not a bad title for today’s daily. Hot events overnight include EU inflation jumping to a 4 year high of 2%, US jobless claims falling to a 44 year low of 223k and Snap, the parent company of message app Snapchat, rallying 41% on […]
Markets Today: Europa
With the US out celebrating president’s day, Europe was always going to be the focus in the overnight session. My dad used to listen to Santana, so the first song that came to mind was “Europa”, a mellow song with no lyrics, but notable for Santana’s guitar solo.
Markets Today: Beware the ides of March
Reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate triggered a sell-off in US Treasury yields and a broad USD rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next FOMC meeting in March.
Markets Today: Alive and kicking
Last week the USD regained its mojo largely thanks to President Trump's hint of a phenomenal tax policy announcement and on Friday the USD waivered, particularly against JPY when at a joint press conference with Japan’s PM Abe, President Trump responded to a question about currency devaluation saying that "we will all eventually...be at a level playing field." and then added "That's the only way you can fairly compete in trade”.
Markets Today: The quiet achiever
In what has been a quiet night of data releases and tweets from President Trump, the USD has been the quiet achiever amid simmering political and fiscal uncertainties in Europe, softer oil prices, flat US equities and lower US Treasury yields.
Markets Today: Blue Monday
New Order’s Blue Monday is the best-selling 12 inch single of all time in Britain (mmm I wonder how many 12 inch singles are out there!) and is also the longest charting single at 7:25.
Markets Today: Numero Uno
In a defiant and brief speech, President Trump made it clear that from now on “It's going to be only America first” and in what has now become a great economic debate he reiterated his view that “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength”. Against this view, history and economic theory tells us that protectionism usually involves an increase in tariffs and a decline in trade.
Markets Today: Happy Birthday
In 1979 President Carter endorsed a bill to have a holiday in honour of Martin Luther King (MLK), but a Conservative Congress at the time refused to pass the bill. Eventually President Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 and it was first observed three years later.
Markets Today: All shook up
The overnight session has been a tale of two halves, a dull affair ahead of Trump press conference and a volatile session post.
Markets Today: Synergy
When thinking about a title for today’s note and the impact the US labour market report had on Friday’s session, Aristotle’s quote ” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seemed quite fitting, but way too long for a title.
Markets Today: Close but no cigar
It seems unlikely that Italy’s largest Bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, will meet today’s timetable to raise five billion Euros and provide a lifeline beyond March.
Markets Today: Two become three
The US Fed delivered their anticipated 25 basis point rate hike this morning, but they surprised markets by announcing an expectation of three further rises in 2017, one more than previously anticipated.
Markets Today: Don’t get married or travel today!
In Chile, Tuesday 13th instead of Friday 13th is considered to be an unlucky day.
Markets Today: Born this way
Back in March 2011 Lady Gaga’s hit “Born this way” was leading the music chart in Australia and Pink was number one on the Billboard chart.
Markets Today: Pay 2 Play
Talk of oil cuts has been enough to see prices rise again overnight, up 15% this week. So what’s it doing to bond yields and the US dollar?
Markets Today: Deal or no deal
The key event this week will come from Vienna where ministers from OPEC are scheduled to meet and hopefully finalise the first cut in oil production in eight years.
Markets Today: The life of a Thanksgiving Turkey
In his 2007 best seller “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb uses the life of a thanksgiving turkey as an analogy for explaining a black swan occurrence i.e. a tail event that is so remote that is completely unforeseen.
Markets Today: For what is worth
Leonard Cohen passed away last week and on my way in I was listening to a mix of folk tunes with the hope of finding one of his songs as a title for today’s note.
Markets Today: Bart to the future
16 Years ago the Simpsons episode “Bart to the future” aired for the first time with a plot partly consisting of Lisa becoming president of the United States. Lisa tries to get the country out of financial trouble due to the high levels of debt left by the previous president, Donald Trump.
Markets Today: The final countdown
Today feels a bit like a trip into the unknown with the US election entering its final stage as Americans head to the polls tonight.
Markets Today: Playing it cool
There was no scary ending to the month of October with markets in general playing it cool ahead of a busy week of data releases, central bank meetings and what is turning out to be a fairly dramatic US presidential election.
Markets Today: Turbulence
Turbulence, a little known track by American pop punk band Bowling for Soup appears to be an appropriate title for today’s note. The song was written by Jaret Reddick after he asked a pilot whether he found turbulence frightening.
Markets Today: Merger Monday
While European markets started the week in a lethargic mood, trading sideways for most of the day, US stocks opened higher following a series of merger announcements with the market also getting a boost from better than expected earnings reports.
Markets Today: Cautious Man
Bruce Springsteen cautious man tells the story of a man that has doubts about his marriage and in a similar way markets have started the week in a tentative mood reflecting some concerns on the outlook.
Markets Today: Blowin’ in the wind
Time will tell whether the softer tone over the past 24hr is just a small correction or a sign that a bigger change is coming.
Markets Today: Midnight oil
Well it wasn't exactly midnight, but close enough. In a night that was expected to be relatively quiet given the US was celebrating Columbus Day, oil prices provided some fireworks after President Putin announced his support to a production freeze or even cut in oil output.
Markets Today: Inception
Last night the ECB released its accounts of its September policy meeting and as expected there was no mention of tapering, the Bank reiterated its willingness and ability to ease further, if needed, while concerns over the lack of an uplift in core inflation was also evident.
Markets Today: Disturbia
Core global yields and the Euro have been disturbed by a Bloomberg report claiming ECB officials were considering QE tapering while early in the session the Pound was under renewed pressure trading to a new post Brexit low.
Markets Today: Uneasy
Yesterday Brainard's comments appeased fears of an imminent hike in September, but concerns of a rising belief within the Fed that the benefit of keeping monetary policy accommodative is waning appears have left markets uneasy
Markets Today: Big up yourself
It has been a relatively quiet night for markets with the moves in GBP probably the major highlight. BoE Governor Carney faced the Treasury Select Committee in parliament and was quick to give himself a nice pat on the back for the bounce in business and consumer surveys in August.
Markets Today: And then there were three
The recent ramp up in Fed rhetoric aimed at putting the market on the scent of an imminent Fed funds rate hike took another blow last night following a sharp drop in the August ISM non-manufacturing index.
Markets Today: Spring time
One of the first things that I learned when I arrived in Australia a few years ago is that spring in southern hemisphere countries doesn’t start on the same day.
Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Apparently this 1989 hit by the Rolling Stones was written by Mick Jagger as a response to Keith Richards solo effort “You don’t move me”.
Markets Today: Pulback
The rise in the USD and short dated UST yields on the back of Fed vice-chair Fisher's comments over the weekend have been partly unwound in the overnight session.
Markets Today: Wait and see mode
The overnight session was all about the July Fed Minutes.
Markets Today: An American Trilogy
Europe had a quiet day with many continental countries observing Assumption day. The Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat and the FTSE100 climbed 0.36% aided by another move lower in Sterling.
Markets Today: 1999
Almost 24 hours after yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to lower the OCR by 25bps and the NZD USD is almost exactly where it was before the rate announcement.
Markets Today: Breathe
Breathe was Prodigy’s bestselling album in the UK despite the fact that radio play was restricted to the evening shows and although it would be hard to make any link with the song lyrics and market events.
Markets Today: Suspicious minds
After seven years without a hit, Elvis Presley reclaimed his title of “The King” following the release of Suspicious Minds.
Markets Today: Quiet start to a big week
US equities indices edged a little bit higher on Friday despite mixed corporate earnings while European equities ended the day practically unchanged despite the fact that European Flash PMIs for July were better than expected.
Markets Today: Feeling good
As we are about to press the send button, the RBNZ has just released it economic update and although a dovish tone was expected, the NZD has dropped 25/30pips to around 0.6988.
Markets Today: Quiet times
In a quiet session US and UK equity indices edged a little bit higher buoyed by technology and financial shares while European indices drifted lower weighted down by energy shares following a sharp drop in oil prices.
Markets Today: I’m so tired
In 1968 John Lennon wrote this Beatles song after three weeks of meditation with Indian Gurus, equity markets have been on a tear for four days and now in a similar way they are also showing signs of fatigue.
Markets Today: The only way is up
Risk assets had another positive night boosted by the prospects of a new round of stimulus in some major economies and the removal of at least one source of UK political uncertainty.
Markets Today: Low
Core global yields have made new record lows amid an increase in risk aversion following news that a number of UK asset managers led by Standard Life were suspending redemptions on their property funds.
Markets Today: Too close to call
The outcome from this weekend’s Australian election remains too close to call. This uncertainty and lack of a clear majority has had a mild negative influence on the AUD/USD at the open.
Markets Today: Another Pounding
Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic ended the day sharply lower, the British Pound fell another 3.6% and demand for safe haven assets boosted gold and dragged core global yields lower.
Markets Today: It ain’t over till it’s over
Despite stormy weather in London and the south east, turnout has been reported to be high and although markets appear to have ‘Remain ‘ as the most likely outcome, recent history suggests that voting outcomes don’t always end as expected.
Markets Today: Doing my thing and doing it slow
Ahead of Thursday’s UK referendum, Yellen’s testimony to the Senate banking committee was the second big event of the week. Unsurprisingly, however, we got a similar message to the one we got from last week’s FOMC.
Markets Today: A night of two halves
Yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei and strengthening of the Yen on the back of BoJ inaction and heightened concerns around the outcome of the UK EU referendum set the tone to the early part of the overnight session.
Markets Today: Take it easy
The US Fed kept its policy rate unchanged (between 0.25% and 0.50%) as expected, however the tone of the statement and forecast revealed a more dovish stance.
Markets Today: All juiced up
The perception of a lower for longer Fed has slowly but surely brought back an improvement in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: Walking away
US equities ended day up between 0.5% and 0.65% with energy stocks leading the way on the back of gains in oil prices.
Markets Today: ¡Ay caramba!
Looking at the spectrum of forecasts ahead of the release, the 38k print for May was 52k lower than the lowest forecast surveyed by Bloomberg while consensus was at 160k.
Markets Today: Hesitant
Markets ended the month of May in a cautious mood amid mixed US data and a Guardian poll that suggested Britain to be more in favour of leaving the EU.
Markets Today: Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps
In her much awaited Harvard University appearance, Fed Chair Yellen endorsed recent Fed rhetoric, noting that it would be “appropriate” for the Fed to raise the Funds rate if economic growth picked up as expected and the labour market continued to improve.
Markets Today: Bullish Mood
US and European equity indices had a solid night with gains in financial and technology shares leading the move higher. The USD was stronger against most other currencies although GBP was the outperformer. Meanwhile US Treasury yields ended the day higher along the curve.
Markets Today: Back to black
European and US equities ended the week in positive territory and the mild positive tone to the overnight session helped the S&P 500 move back to black for 2016.
Markets Today: Spooky Fed talk
US equities fell overnight and the US Treasury curve flattened to its lowest level since 2007 after solid data and hawkish Fed talk increased market’s expectations of US rate hikes.
Markets Today: No retail therapy
The rise in oil prices overnight were not enough to prevent retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US dollar was weaker across the board and a solid 10y US Treasury auction amid a cautious mood helped core global yields move lower.
Markets Today: Treading water
The USD has continued its ascendency with the DXY index up for a fifth day in a row.
Markets Today: I need a dollar, a dollar is what I need
The USD has slowly, but surely continued its rebound while equities on either side of the Atlantic fell for a second consecutive day.
Markets Today: Going sub 2, but still chilled?
While yesterday’s fall in the Nikkei, partly reflected a catch up move given Friday’s holiday in Japan, this negative sentiment spread throughout Asia with all markets excluding Thailand posting small decline for the day.
Australian Markets Weekly – 26 April 2016
Tomorrow’s CPI will be another low print but unlikely to sway the RBA into easing monetary policy given the continued resilience in the non-mining economy. NAB’s forecast for the March quarter CPI is for Australia’s official inflation rate to be 1.6% y/y (after 1.7% in Q4), the sixth quarter below the 2-3% official RBA target range.
Markets Today: Distillate thrust
Oil prices took another leg higher last night following a US Energy Information Administration report that showed a sharp decline in US distillate stockpiles.
Markets Today: Back on a 78 handle
Broad USD dollar weakness and higher oil prices have boosted risk assets overnight with energy and material shares the outperformers in both Europe and the US.
Markets Today: The only way is up
Risky assets have continued to benefit from an improvement in sentiment. Bank stocks have led the surge in equity markets and most commodities have also enjoyed some gains, despite of a pullback in oil prices.
Markets Today: Lack of conviction
European markets ended the day in positive territory boosted by Italian banks following hopes of a government support package while in the US, equity indices erased early gains and ended the day marginally lower.
Markets Today: June is alive
An improvement in risk appetite has helped global equity markets recovered some grown overnight with the Nikkei a notable exception. FOMC minutes revealed an April hike was discussed, but a cautious approach appears to be well entrenched. A pick up in oil prices contributed to the positive move, but the strength in the yen continues to weigh on Japan’s equity market.
Markets Today: Wait and see mode
In what was a quiet night for markets the softness in oil prices spread into other commodities and it has weighted on the AUD and other commodity related currencies.
Markets Today: Easy does it
Fed Chair Janet Yellen has reiterated her views that it is appropriate for the Fed to “proceed cautiously” in raising interest rates.
Markets Today: Fed hikes back on the radar
Two Fed officials suggesting Fed hikes could be coming sooner rather than later.
Markets Today: Free falling
Nothing better than Tom Petty to the end the week.
Markets Today: Cautious Fed
As expected by most, US Fed Officials left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0.25% - 0.5%.
Markets Today: Watching you watching me
Central banks are again in the spotlight this week.
Markets Today: Kiwi dumped
This morning the RBNZ cut its policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and it signal that further easing may be required.
Markets Today: In retreat
Investors remain concerned over the apparent soft demand for China’s exports.
Markets Today: ISM boost
China’s decision to reduce the required reserve ratio on major banks (-50bps) set the tone in yesterday’s Asian session
Markets Today: Dogs days are “nearly “over?
European and US equity markets started the week in a positive tone boosted by a commodity led improvement in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: Deal or no deal
The global equity rally that began on Friday has started to show signs of fatigue
Markets Today: The rebound continues
Global equities extended their Friday rally helped along by a strong lead from Asia.
Markets Today: Rebound
European and US equity indices ended the week on a positive note, boosted by a rebound in bank stocks and a jump in oil prices.
Markets Today: Carnage
Yeap, the heading says it all. We had a brutal price action overnight with risk assets hammered while safe haven assets were bid.
Markets Today: Stalled
Friday’s BoJ powered equity rally stalled overnight with disappointing data releases and fading hopes of output cuts in oil weighted down on sentiment.
Markets Today: Mixed Messages
Mixed oil messages were the main source of market volatility overnight.
Markets Today: Doing the talk… but not the walk yet
ECB talk of further easing in the future boosted risk assets overnight. Equities posted solid gains in Europe and in the US they look set to end the day in positive territory.
Markets Today: Super Tuesday
With US markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, the relatively quiet overnight session is probably not reflective of the current collective mood.
Markets Today: Where are we now?
Today’s title is our final tribute to the late musical genius, David Bowie. Where are we are now? Is the first single from David Bowie’s 25th album released on the morning of his sixty-sixth birthday in 2013.
Markets Today: Under Pressure
Today's title is not only fitting to what has transpired in markets over the past 24 hrs, but it also serves as a tribute to the passing of a music legend.
Markets Today: Bring it on
Investors ended 2015 in a defensive stance. Following the risk aversion tone seen in the previous day, equity markets were sold on Thursday while core global bonds benefited from a safe haven bid.
Markets Today: Sideways
Moves in oil prices remain the main driver for markets amid a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday break.
Markets Today: Liquidity Trap
Friday night session saw a surge in risk aversion with sharp losses in equity indices, the USD underperformed against other majors while safe haven demand pushed core global yields lower.
Markets Today: Squeezed
As we are about to press the send bottom, the RBNZ has cut its key rate to 2.50% from 2.75%. In the statement the RBNZ has noted that it expects to reach its inflation goal at current policy settings and that the rise in the exchange rate is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate.
Markets Today: In Retreat
The AUDUSD dipped below the 72c mark overnight amid the ongoing weakness in oil and bulk commodities.
Markets Today: A Done Deal
The US employment report virtually matched expectations (NFP +211k, unemployment steady at 5%) and effectively confirms a Fed lift-off in two weeks’ time is a done deal.
Markets Today: The 73 handle is back
The AUD is back trading with a 73 handle for the first time since 19 October, helped along by a disappoint US ISM manufacturing print.
Today’s market update: Oil boosted by rising Middle East tension
Markets were rattled in the early part of the overnight session following news that Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian border, after allegedly repeated warnings of Turkish airspace violation.