GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Rise of the machines: could automation help sustain China’s long term growth momentum.

Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.

In February, the NAB Monthly Business Survey moderated from the surprising strength seen in January, but remained consistent with a relatively robust view of business activity and investment behaviour in the near-term.

Global reflation continues, political risks to navigate

An encouraging start to 2017 – although strength still comes from the old economy, with retail trends disappointing.

Foreign multinationals suggest quite good expectations for capital investment in the next 12 months

Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.

Prices have seen a gradual recovery from the mid-2014 to early 2016 price slide.

Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.

Change to fed rate call – March hike now expected.

Likely outcome is that the Euro-zone survives.

Strong European data failed to excite markets – the exception being equities – as the upcoming French Presidential elections take centre stage. Betting markets now ascribe Eurosceptic Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while a poll by Elable for L’Express magazine overnight puts her within striking distance in a run-off with Fillion with 44% of the vote – inspiration for today’s title “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi.

For the 2016-17 season, we developed a new wheat production forecast model, based on regional rainfall and state yields going back to federation, with an allowance for technological change.

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