Overview

• Following a sharp increase in US dollar prices in Q4 2023 (when they rose by 14% qoq), NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024 – down by 4.9% qoq. Weaker prices for thermal coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are key drivers of this downturn.
• Global economic growth is set to slow in 2024 – which should translate into more modest commodity demand conditions and downward pressure on prices. Despite markets anticipating large-scale Chinese stimulus, we believe such an outcome is unlikely, given concerns around the country’s debt levels. In particular, weak conditions in China’s property sector look likely to persist, a trend that could last multiple years.

• In annual average terms, our USD index is forecast to fall by around 9.8% in 2024, led by falling prices for thermal coal, iron ore and LNG, away from current elevated levels. The expected strengthening in the Australian dollar means a larger decline in AUD terms, down by around 15.0%.

Find out more in the Minerals Energy Outlook (February 2024)