China’s sudden abandonment of its zero-COVID policies in December led the country into a disruptive transition period before what is likely to be an economic rebound across 2023. A faster-than-expected spread of the virus may reduce the length of the transition period, providing upside risk to our growth forecasts. That said, the strength of the rebound may depend on consumer confidence – particularly the willingness to spend the savings built up during zero-COVID.

For further details, please see the China Economic Update (February 2023)