Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014

• Moderate economic growth continues across the emerging market economies of East Asia (ASEAN, HK, South Korea and Taiwan) with the pace of regional growth quickening from just under 4% yoy in September quarter to 4.3% yoy in December. The export-driven economies of Taiwan and South Korea accounted for most of the acceleration as ASEAN growth was held down by political tensions in Thailand and financial/inflation issues in Indonesia. We expect growth of 4.1% this year and 4.4% in 2015.
•  The pace of expansion in domestic demand remained fairly flat around the region and the growth pick-up was driven by exports, reflecting a modest lift in the growth of world trade through the latter half of last year. The rate of growth in regional consumer spending and fixed investment remained little changed, but export growth lifted from around 4% yoy to 5¼% yoy through the latter half of 2013.
• Regional indicators that anticipate the future pace of economic growth are not pointing to any sudden acceleration in activity. Regional business surveys show their usual divergence between individual economies but none of them show a ramping up in expectations. Leading indicators of export demand are not highlighting much better conditions either.
• The moderate pace of growth in the Asian emerging economies has contributed to the levelling out in export values to the region from Australia and New Zealand. That lacklustre trade record contrasts with the continuing surge in shipments to China, which has displaced Australia to become New Zealand’s biggest market for merchandise exports.

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•    Asian Emerging Economies Update – February 2014 (PDF, 250KB)