We expect growth in the global economy to remain subdued out to 2026.
Insight
Recent business surveys show a solid and synchronised lift in business confidence across the advanced economies whose annualised 3-month industrial growth now exceeds that of the emerging economies.
Global: Recent business surveys show a solid and synchronised lift in business confidence across the advanced economies whose annualised 3-month industrial growth now exceeds that of the emerging economies. This shift in the composition of global economic expansion back to the advanced economies has long been forecast and reflects the impact of their stimulative economic policy and the passing of recession in Western Europe. Big emerging market economies have been hit by financial market volatility as money moves back to the US in anticipation of better returns with impending Fed policy changes. Growth expectations revised down for India, emerging Asia and Brazil as their monetary policy will have to be tighter than would have been the case if there had been a more gradual market adjustment to the Fed’s planned moves.
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