May 16, 2016

Australian Markets Weekly – 16 May 2016

It was a quieter week for Australian markets after the previous week’s very large moves. The Australian dollar still ended the week lower, as markets continued to speculate that the RBA will follow up with another interest rate cut in the months ahead and as Chinese economic data disappointed.

Employment and wages the focus this week

  • Important local events to gain market attention, with tomorrow’s RBA Minutes, Wednesday’s Wages data and the key April employment report on Thursday.
  • Lower than expected inflation the key watch point for the RBA; any follow-up RBA action (were it to occur) to wait until after the Q2 CPI report (due 27 July).  NAB’s forecast is for no further RBA rate reduction, pending the release of the Q2 CPI.
  • While Wednesday’s Wages data is likely to reveal steady growth, SEEK advertised salaries show a mild trend upturn.
  • NSW and Vic offsetting still softer advertised wages in the West, reflecting the two-speed economy; Queensland reflecting a mild net increase.
  • Thursday’s employment report likely to show further trend growth and a steady-to-lower unemployment rate.  The activity side of the economy continues to grow at a solid rate.

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