January 19, 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: Employment growth keeps defying the doomsayers

The wild start to 2016 has continued in the past week. Equities, commodities, commodity currencies, and yields are all lower.

Employment growth keeps defying the doomsayers

  • The crazy start to 2016 continues with equities lower, commodities lower, commodity currencies lower
  • NAB has nudged its AUD FX forecasts down slightly, now seeing A$/US$ 0.67 by end Q1 and 0.66 by mid-year, before a mild recovery in H2 2016
  • Australian jobs data continues to surprise, even if the underlying pace of growth is likely to be slightly softer than the official figures suggest
  • Despite volatility in the jobs data, the jobs data do align with other indicators of the labour market, supporting the RBA’s recent optimism on the economy
  • The unemployment rate probably gives a better read of the labour market – and is not impacted as much by sampling issues
  • A quiet week ahead for Australian data with only monthly Consumer sentiment likely to draw interest

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