Australian wheat production outlook

• The attached report presents our initial estimates for Australian wheat production for the 2016-17 season. Overall, we have a generally positive outlook for production, based on good to excellent planting rainfall combined with the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for above average winter rainfall in major cropping areas.

• Our central case estimate for the 2016-17 Australian wheat crop is 26.1 million tonnes, based on rainfall to date and average rainfall in major cropping areas for the rest of the season. This would represent a 10.7% increase in production on last season. Our high case estimate, based on 20% above average winter rainfall, points to a national harvest of 27.1 million tonnes.

• The Bureau of Meteorology currently puts the chance of a La Niña event this year at 50%. La Niña is generally associated with above average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia and often higher Australian wheat production. Our estimate of production in a La Niña event is 26.8 million tonnes, based on rainfall levels during La Niña events going back to 1900. This result is lower than our high case as typical La Niña rainfall levels tend to be between average and 20% above average rainfall.

• The outlook is not without risks. If rainfall disappoints there is likely to be some downside to these forecasts. Conversely very high winter rainfall levels could lead to waterlogging in some areas. If we see a strong La Niña, there is likely to be above average spring rain. This could cause crop downgrades if there are large downpours late in the season (as occurred during the last La Niña event).

• Special thanks to John Sharma for his assistance with the preparation of this report.

For further analysis download the full report.

• In focus – Wheat Market Update June 2016 (PDF, 832kb)

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