Global and Australian Forecasts: August 2016

Brexit has had less impact on the global economy than many feared.

Key Points:

Brexit has had less impact on the global economy than many feared. Financial markets are generally either back to pre-referendum levels or even stronger, and the direct economic fall-out looks like being largely restricted to a UK recession and modest spill-over to European trading partners. Having dodged yet another bullet, the global economic upturn continues along at its sub-trend pace with only a few inconclusive signs that things are finally about to get better. We have marked down our US forecasts in the wake of disappointing second quarter data but East Asia is doing slightly better and the outcome is 2016 forecast global growth stays at 2.8%. Inflation generally remains sub-target, central banks have used up much of their policy ammunition (although very unorthodox measures like “helicopter money” remain) and the structural factors that have weighed on global growth remain. China and India are driving more than half of global growth, the former by returning to time-honoured pump priming measures that pile up debt and the latter by printing statistics that many view as erring on the side of optimism in measuring GDP.

Australian economic growth is expected to remain resilient at 2.9% in 2016 and 2017, despite significant variation across industries and states. However the risks to the outlook going into 2018 are becoming increasingly apparent, as LNG exports flatten off at a high level and the dwelling construction cycle turns down. Against these headwinds, the economy may require additional policy action to support growth, especially if the RBA hopes to see inflation return to within its 2-3% target band. Both global and domestic disinflationary pressures are expected to keep CPI inflation below the target band for an extended period, while structural shifts in the economy and modest economic growth risk upward pressure on the unemployment rate. We now expect the RBA will need to provide further support through two more 25bp cuts in May and August 2017 (to a new low of 1%), which should be enough to stabilise the unemployment rate at just over 5½% and prevent economic growth from dropping below our forecast of 2.6% in 2018. Monetary policy deliberations may then turn to the possible use of non-conventional policy measures if the outlook deteriorates further. Additionally, persistent weakness in CPI inflation could potentially trigger a rate cut even sooner than expected.

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