If someone were to compose a song to capture the music industry’s experience over the past decade, it would be a long, mournful ballad. In 2014 the tune is going to change. In the coming year the music industry will grow—modestly, but cheeringly. A turnaround is under way at last.

The internet has always been the enemy of music executives, facilitating piracy, denting cd sales and encouraging people to download single songs instead of buying them by the dozen. But it will give executives something to sing about in 2014.

Subscription services such as Spotify and Deezer, which allow users to stream music for a monthly fee or in exchange for listening to advertisements, will add listeners. So will online-radio services like Pandora and iTunes Radio. And more digital-music firms will be launched. They will strike deals with new artists, or buy exclusive rights to star singers’ songs, to differentiate their music libraries from those of competitors.

The spread of smartphones and unlimited-data plans will make these portable music services more attractive to listeners. Streaming is still a small part of the music business globally, but will bolster it in the years ahead. Like a popular rocker who burns out, only to try to stage a comeback a decade later, the sickly music industry will probably never regain its previous vigour. But even modest growth is welcome news for the industry.

Music executives, known for pouring more of their attention into parties than balance-sheets, have had to become more professional about running leaner businesses.

In 2014 record labels and bands will use new tools to sell and share their tunes. It will become more common for bands and managers to use data about where fans are listening to them in order to decide where to tour.

More start-ups will get going in 2014 and disrupt the normal way of doing things. SongKick, a London firm, lets fans enter credit-card details and pledge to buy a concert ticket for their favourite band if they will perform in their town. These guaranteed ticket sales mean smaller artists can do shows that would otherwise be too risky.

Concerts and festivals will still be a booming business, particularly for star singers. However, some record executives privately confess their concern about the industry’s reliance on a few big, older names to sell tickets. Many of the biggest draws today, such as the Rolling Stones, are ageing.

With luck a more upbeat 2014 will bring the discovery of some new musical acts, whose popularity lasts longer than a few album — or digital—tracks.

Alexandra Suich: media editor, The Economist. From The World In 2014 magazine, © 2013 The Economist Newspaper Limited.  All rights reserved. 

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