Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
NAB Economics Data Insights 6 August 2020
NAB data for the week ended August 1 suggests the trend decline in consumption spending seen in recent weeks has continued.
During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.
NAB data for the week ended August 1 suggests the trend decline in consumption spending seen in recent weeks has continued, with overall spending easing to 1.2% y/y (10.2% in the previous week). With stage 3 restrictions in effect, spending in VIC fell a sharper -5.3%, dragged down by steep falls in lockdown areas (-8.6%) – and predates stage 4 restrictions announced on August 2. A broad-based slowdown was also evident in all other states and territories, and in all industry sectors. Retail spending slowed noticeably (but was still positive and out-performing), but spending on Admin & Support Services, Transport and Education fell heavily.
Total payment inflows into NAB merchants fell -1.6% in the 6-weeks to August 1, accelerating from -0.6% in the previous week (we have moved to a 6-week comparison to avoid end of financial year distortions). By industry, inflows fell most in Mining, Hospitality and Transport. Growth was strongest in Agriculture, Retail Trade, Other Services and Construction. By business size, business inflows fell most (and accelerated) for corporates, and increased modestly in large and emerging firms.
For further details, please see NAB Data Insights 6 August 2020 Report.