August 20, 2020

NAB Economics Data Insights 20 August 2020

For the week ended August 15, NAB data shows a -1.5% year-on-year decline in overall consumption spending.

During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.

For the week ended August 15, NAB data shows a -1.5% year-on-year decline in overall consumption spending – the first fall in weekly spending since the week ending May 2. This was mainly driven by very sharp falls in VIC – particularly lockdown areas (down around 17%) – our data includes for the first time a full week of lockdown. Spending also slowed in other states, but was still positive (albeit barely in NSW, and TAS now out-performing). Across key industry sectors, we noted a significant slowdown in Retail spending relative to last week, with spending on Hospitality, Education and Health Care also much weaker and falling much faster than last week.

Total payment inflows into NAB merchants have also been hit hard. In 6-week moving average year-on-year terms, they fell -1.7% (3.0% last week), implying a very big hit in the latest week. Corporates (and small firms) were hit hardest, with inflows into corporates posting its biggest fall this year. Inflows into large and emerging firms were positive, but slowed relative to last week. By industry, the rate of decline into Mining continues to gather steam, with the rate of decline also accelerating in the under-performing Transport and Hospitality sectors.

For further details, please see NAB Data Insights 20 August 2020 Report.