In this podcast, NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster gives you a 10 minute summary of our analysis of consumer spending.

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NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented

• Our latest weekly consumer tracking data to 13^th August shows the moderation in spending growth continues post-EOFY peak, albeit from elevated levels. While consumption has outperformed in the pandemic era, significant differences between sectors aside, it appears that the combination of high inflation, rising rates and weakening confidence, is impacting near term prospects for growth.
• Overall, our seasonally adjusted, 4 week moving average measure of consumption indicates an easing (136.2) for the week ending 13^th August 2022, using a 2019 base, when compared to a week prior (139.5). However, this is still well above the comparable period a year prior (117.2). Retail (137.4) eased from the week prior (140.7) but remains above levels a year prior (123.2). Hospitality recorded a larger index point change (148.8 from 153.8 a week prior), confirming our previous observation that the sector was likely to continue easing from the peak in mid-July. Other divisions that have slowed in recent weeks at a faster pace than the overall, include Administrative and support services, Arts and recreational services, Professional services, and Transport.
• While consumption in all states slowed in the week, the largest states, NSW and VIC continue to track above the national average (relative to 2019), along with NT and TAS. The lower performance in recent weeks for Queensland, seems to be associated with results from Education, Transport and Retail trade.
• Business inflows also slowed this week (122.9, from 148.2 a week prior). However, like consumption, overall inflows continue to outperform pre-pandemic levels. Mining, which had been a key driver of strength earlier in the year, has eased significantly in recent weeks, and is now around a similar index position observed in 2019. Another previous outperformer, Construction, has also slowed in recent weeks, but remains elevated relative to prior years. Similar to consumption, inflows into hospitality remain elevated, albeit starting to ease.

For further details please see NAB Data Insights (week ending 13 August 2022)

*During these extraordinary times, NAB has taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.