Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, remained resilient in July, rising 0.5% m/m overall. Estimated spending in June was also revised up, now showing an increase of 0.9% m/m. Retail spending however remains under pressure.
• Both discretionary and non-discretionary spending categories rose in the month but growth in discretionary categories remains softer, up 0.9% in three-month-average terms compared to 2% for non-discretionary spending.
• Business credits rose 0.3% m/m in July, or 0.2% when excluding mining and agriculture.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

Our monthly transaction data showed a surprisingly positive result for July, with spending still holding up.”

“Nominal spending in retail has been fairly flat, which suggests further falls in real terms are likely, but the resilience of spending is nonetheless impressive including in more discretionary sectors such as hospitality, arts, recreation and travel.”

“Spending on essential services like healthcare and utilities has also continued to rise and we know this in part reflects the ongoing rises in prices that consumers are facing in many services sectors.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (July 2023)