Overview

• Consumer spending, according to NAB’s transaction data, was broadly flat in June (down 0.1% m/m). The prior May monthly result was also revised upwards to a stronger +0.8% m/m.
• Both discretionary and non-discretionary spending categories were soft in the month. However, in three-month average terms, discretionary spending has fallen while non-discretionary has continued to grow.
• Business credits fell 0.1% m/m in May, but there was a 0.2% increase when excluding mining and agriculture. Credits continue to track sideways.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly transaction data showed a broadly flat result for June, with a lift in hospitality spending but a fall in retail.”

“The June result follows a lift in spending in May, but leaves overall spending flat in nominal terms for Q2 as a whole, consistent with our view that consumer spending growth is softening.”

“Given our expectations that inflation remained elevated through the quarter, the flat nominal result suggests consumption was likely flat at best in real terms and may have fallen.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (June 2023)