Overview

• Consumer spending strengthened slightly in November, up 0.5%, after a flat October (revised up from a small negative). Robust retail spending and a small rise in essential services offset falls in other discretionary categories.
• Retail spending rose 1.0% overall, with continued strength in hospitality spending, up 1.2%, and a pickup in goods retail, up 0.9% after a softer October. The latter possibly reflected some ongoing changes in seasonality.
• Business credits rose 0.2% in November to be 13.1% higher y/y, with utilities, education, and retail trade the strongest over the past three months, although some sectors have fallen, in particular mining and transport.

Comments from NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

“Our monthly spending data indicates that spending picked up in November after a softening in October, largely driven by strength in retail and hospitality which offset a fall in some discretionary categories such as arts, recreation & travel.”

“The strength in retail possibly reflected some ongoing changes in seasonality as Black Friday and early Christmas shopping brings spending forward from December, although the extent of the any bring-forward remains to be seen. Retail spending was only up around 2.5% on the previous November once hospitality and food are excluded.”

“Strong inflation has likely continued to play a role in driving the growth in these nominal data, so it remains difficult to gauge movements in the underlying volume of consumption.”

For further details please see NAB Monthly Data Insights (November 2022)