Key points

• We now see the RBA easing more quickly through mid-2025 taking the cash rate to 2.6% by February.
• We expect the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February.
• Headwinds from the global environment have intensified, but error bounds around our forecast are large given uncertainty remains exceptionally elevated.
• We have slightly revised up our unemployment rate in the near term, and shaved growth for 2025 but ultimately expect a larger policy response is required to keep activity on track.

For further details, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update (10 April 2025)