• On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, the index grew moderately in December (0.2%), following rapid growth in November (6.0%).
• Growth accelerated again in year-on-year terms (18.0% y/y), with November also rapid (13.3%).
• By category, growth was mixed in December. While fashion, which recorded the most rapid growth in November, partially reversed those gains in December, grocery and liquor had a much stronger drop. Strong growth for one of the smallest sales categories, takeaway food, along with slower growth for department stores and personal and rec goods barely offset this. In year-on-year terms, growth was most rapid for department stores, along with homewares and appliances, with the two largest categories accelerating in December.
• Growth was also mixed by state this month, with the largest sales states except NSW recording growth, albeit much slower than November, and ACT leading the contraction. Both VIC and ACT had led growth in November, but the drop, especially in homewares and appliances, clearly impacted the latter in December. Broad based weakness in the grocery and liquor category, but particularly so in NSW and TAS.
• In year-on-year terms, metro growth continues to outpace regional. Metro accelerated slightly in December, slightly widening the gap as regional growth plateaued.
• International retailers recorded growth in the month, with domestic contracting after outpacing international in the month prior. While domestic is still growing faster than international in year-on-year terms, the gap has narrowed.
• NAB estimates that in the 12 months to December, Australians spent $59.9 billion on online retail, a level that is around 13.8% of the total retail trade estimate (November 2024, Series 8501, Australian Bureau of Statistics), with 12 months to growth (10%) continuing to improve.

NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented:

Beyond the regular analysis, this month we delve into the data on recent sales event days, the Black Friday to Cyber Monday (BF-CM) weekend, and compare this to the traditional peak retail trade four day trading period immediately prior to Christmas day. Firstly, it is worth noting that over recent years key retailers have listed sales offers available, days or in some instances, weeks before the event date. For simplicity, consistency, and comparability, our analysis for this exercise includes only the four specific dates of the events. Overall, we observed the continued sales growth during the period of the Black Friday event, particularly for broader consumer spend and retail trade. While online retail was also up compared to the year prior, the rate was slower, especially given base effects of a rapid 2023 event. In 2024, over 35% of all retail trade that occurred during these four days was conducted online. This is up markedly over the period we have been monitoring the series. For example, in 2012 it was about 9%, and as recently as 2022, it was just over 25%.

There is some conjecture as to how the BF-CM trading period compares to the retail trade period around Christmas, with the composition of sales a key part of the discussion. From what we observe in the data, for broad retail trade, instore and online combined, sales value for the BF-CM weekend represented close to 94% of the 4 day pre-Christmas lead up period in 2024. The same metric for 2012 was circa 63% of sales, highlighting the increasing importance of these days for retail trade. For the online component, BF-CM is clearly dominant, with 2.4 times the sales value relative to the comparable online sales period of the 4 days pre-Christmas. This is perhaps unsurprising as November retail sales for online in recent years have typically been about 30% higher than the average monthly sales for the rest of the year, and December only about 8% higher. This fits with our observations of the online monthly seasonal pattern.

We have also observed that average transaction values increased for categories more associated with the BF-CM sales event, especially homewares and electrical, and more recently car parts related, whereas other categories like supermarkets and specialised food have trended lower.

Get all the insights in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (December 2024)