• On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, the index was unchanged in January. This follows a moderate downward revision to growth in December (0.1%, was 0.2%).
• Growth slowed in year-on-year terms (12.7% y/y), after rapid growth in the strong trading period over November and December.
• By category, growth was again mixed in January. The third largest sales category, grocery and liquor, which recorded a significant drop in December, rebounded in January. In year-on-year terms, it was also the only category to accelerate. In contrast, the largest sales categories either slowed considerably (department stores) or contracted (homewares and appliances). While slowing, the former continues to record the strongest growth in year-on-year terms.
• Mixed results also by state this month, with growth from large sales state VIC, along with WA, SA, ACT, and NT netted by a drop in sales for other large sales states, NSW and QLD, along with TAS. In terms of the two largest sales states, NSW and VIC, the difference by category was marginal, with food contributing strongly to the positive result for VIC.
• In year-on-year terms, while metro growth continued to outpace regional, the gap narrowed considerably this month.
• International retailers recorded a significant decline in growth in January, after strong results in the prior two months. In year-on-year terms, both domestic and international retailers slowed.
• NAB estimates that in the 12 months to January, Australians spent $60.5 billion on online retail, a level that is around 13.9% of the total retail trade estimate (December 2024, Series 8501, Australian Bureau of Statistics), with 12 months to growth (10.2%) continuing to improve.

NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented:

Following on from subdued growth for online retail trade in December, growth was unchanged in January. This easing follows a strong result in November, with contributions from key sales categories like department stores, homewares and appliances, and fashion. In three month moving average terms growth is fairly robust, even with the January monthly result. Indeed, in the three months to January, online retail sales accelerated to 8.2% on the prior three-month period, compared to 7.9% for December on the same basis. For the twelve months to January 2025, our estimate of growth in the online retail sales market size is 10.2%. So while the two recent monthly headline results have been close to broader retail sales, online retail continues to outpace over time. As a result, the share of broader retail trade from online retail sales has also increased.

Get all the insights in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (January 2025)