Rural Commodities Wrap – March 2014
Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy. December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend.
- Global equity and commodity markets exhibited increased volatility in the past month, caused by heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, adverse weather events in the US and news of a slowing Chinese economy.
- December quarter GDP result for Australia was close to trend, but capital expenditure expectations portend a sharp fall in mining investments by 2014-15.
- As such, jobless growth is expected to continue through 2014 in Australia, with unemployment rate still to reach 6½% by end-2014 when a final rate cut is predicted (possibly November).
In Focus – Implications of drought on the agricultural sector
- After two very wet years in 2010 and 2011, extensive drought conditions returned to a significant inland area of eastern Australia since late 2012. The dryness worsened over the course of 2013, with 80% of Queensland now declared drought-affected, the most widespread in history.
- Severe and prolonged drought conditions have forced livestock farmers to offload their stocks for slaughter and crop farmers to reduce their summer crop, and potentially winter crop plantings.
- Average farm cash income disparity has widened sharply in 2013-14, with grain-intensive farms in WA earning around 8 times more than cattle-intensive farms in Queensland.
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About the Author
Vyanne joined NAB in early 2013 after spending four years in the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF) as a macroeconomic and tax forecaster. In her time in DTF, she was heavily involved in the forecasting of the indicators of the household sector, prices and the amount of Goods and Services Tax (GST) that gets distributed to the state. She also participated actively in the preparation of the annual state publications such as the Budget papers and the Annual Financial Report.
At NAB, Vyanne is responsible for analysing and reporting on the trends and developments in the agribusiness industry, working in conjunction with bankers in NAB’s Agribusiness division.
Vyanne graduated with a bachelor degree in Arts and Social Sciences (honours in Economics) from the National University of Singapore and subsequently completed Masters of Applied Commerce (International) at the University of Melbourne. She is currently undertaking Masters of Economics at the University of Melbourne on a part-time basis.
