We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2


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We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to fall by 4.9% in Q2
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We expect to see a modest slowing in growth across 2025 to 3.1%
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Economic Update
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RBA revisions, rates and risks ahead
We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to move slightly higher in Q4
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NAB Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 3.6% qoq in Q3.
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% in Q2
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index declined in Q2
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 12.3% in 2024 and a further 12.6% in 2025 – led by softer prices for bulk commodities (iron ore and coal).
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We see our NAB commodity index falling substantially in 2024, despite higher forecasts for base metals and gold.
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Slower global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 set to constrain commodity demand
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NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024
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Weaker global growth in 2024 to drive modest commodity demand
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There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.
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Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.
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