Business Research & Insights

We expect NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index to move slightly higher in Q4

NAB Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 3.6% qoq in Q3.

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% in Q2

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index declined in Q2

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 12.3% in 2024 and a further 12.6% in 2025 – led by softer prices for bulk commodities (iron ore and coal).

We see our NAB commodity index falling substantially in 2024, despite higher forecasts for base metals and gold.

Slower global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 set to constrain commodity demand

NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024

Weaker global growth in 2024 to drive modest commodity demand

There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast to relative weakness in other countries. For Australia, recent data have confirmed that the economy is growing at a well-below trend pace, inflation pressure is continuing to moderate and the labour market has remained healthy.

Global inflation slowed in September, including a softening in advanced economy inflation to its lowest level since September 2021. For Australia, we have revised up our forecasts for growth and inflation (in the near-term) while lowering our expected peak in the unemployment rate.

Global inflation again picked up in August. A key contributor to recent inflation trends has been energy prices, with oil prices increasing since June. For Australia, our forecasts are unchanged. Recent data all point to continued resilience but the ongoing pass through of higher rates and high inflation still suggest consumption growth will soften in H2 2023.