NAB pushes out first rate cuts to May 2025 as “lower for longer” strategy plays out
Insight
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
By just a hairs’ breadth, October’s 1.75 cents AUD/USD range exceeded the 1.74 November 2019 range (latter the lowest since Feb.2017). The month’s low of 0.6270 seen on26 October – after a high of 0.6445 on 11 October matched its post April 2020 (pandemic-era) low, previously seen on 13 October 2022. It seems extraordinary that such a low-volatility month could occur during a period that included: the tragic events unfolding in the Middle East and ongoing attendant risk of a broadening in the conflict (to include, in particular, Iran); US 10-year bond yields hitting new post-2007 highs above 5.0%; the sharp repricing of RBA rate hike expectations following the upside Q3 CPI surprise; and the S&P 500 joining earlier Hong Kong and China stock markets into correction territory (losses exceeding 10% since their July highs).
Low volatility in AUD/USD was not a uniquely AUD phenomenon. The CVIX measure of (G10) FX volatility flatlined in October at the same time the VIX measure of (S&P 500) volatility jumped from multi-year lows in late September to an above average 20. The MOVE index of bond volatility also rose, by about 30%, between late September and early October.
That USD indices (e.g. the DXY and Bloomberg BBDXY) failed to extend their early October one year highs as the month progressed, while AUD/USD fell to its weakest in a year, is testament to AUD’s ongoing ‘whipping boy’ characteristics whenever risk sentiment sours (especially in Emerging Markets). It also exemplifies AUD’s ‘up the stairs, down the elevator shaft’ qualities. Hard fought intra-month gains, including on rising RBA tightening expectations and (at mid-month) better China Q3/September activity data, were quickly undone on ‘risk off’ episodes. Weak China October PMI data right at month-end also undermined earlier AUD gains.
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