The AUD in November AUD/USD returned to ‘normal’ levels of monthly volatility in November.
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Markets Today – The Cool Out
After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.
Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.
Insights, Trends & Case Studies
Markets Today – We Found Love
Fed's Waller inches open the US rate cut door
Podcast
Markets Today – It’s oh, so quiet
US and European markets have begun the new week a subdued mood. But core global bond yields are showing some life, lower across the board while the USD is a tad softer too
Markets Today – Route Sixty Six
The Aussie dollar came within kissing distance of 66 US cents on Friday
Markets Today – Flatline
UK best Eurozone on the PMI front in Thanksgiving- thinned markets
Markets Today – Your Capricious Soul
Todays podcast US data not supportive of Fed’s inflation quest US Jobless claims fall well below expectations Final U of Michigan inflation expectations revised up UST curve bear flattens. 2y up 6bps to 4.93% US equities ignore data and keep marching higher Oil slips on news OPEC + meeting delayed. Saudis not happy USD […]
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.
Markets Today – Feel Good Time
US equities start the new week in a positive mood, the USD has remained under pressure and after initially edging higher, longer dated UST yields edge lower supported by a well-received 20y Bond auction.
Markets Today – I get knocked down, but I get up again
Another choppy night on bond markets with 10yr yields on net little changed and the curve twist flattening slightly.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
It was a busy 24 hours for data flow globally. Yields partially retraced yesterday’s post-CPI bond rally, while equities have held onto gains.
Markets Today – Slow
US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.
Markets Today – The Core
Subdued start to the week ahead of US CPI tonight
Markets Today – Hot Thoughts
US equities recorded a solid end to the week with the S&P 500 closing above the 4400 psychological mark. Equity investors showed little reaction to news of a downbeat consumer
Markets Today – Torn
Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.
Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Oil prices down again as demand pessimism deepens
Markets Today – Just Give Me a Reason
Quiet data wise, but some notable moves in markets.
Markets Today – When the Night Falls Quiet
It was a quiet start to the week for news flow, which was mostly reflected in market movements, though yields are generally higher.
Markets Today – The Tide is Turning
Risk assets had a solid end to the week with softer US economic data releases fuelling the notion that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle. Front end yields led a rally in UST yields while the USD extended its decline to a third consecutive day.
Markets Today – On Hold
The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.
The AUD in October 2023
Despite everything happening in the world, the AUD’s October trading range was extraordinarily low.
Markets Today – Talk Talk
Japanese Yen slumps after only minor BoJ policy tweaks
Markets Today – Shake It Off (Taylor’s Version)
Risk sentiment started the week on firmer footing. Equities are higher, the US dollar is lower, and US yields were higher. Brent oil lost 3%, back below $88 a barrel.
Markets Today – Muddy Waters
European and US equities ended the week with a cautious tone. The S&P 500 extended its weekly decline to 2.53% and entering correction territory in the process. Weekend news that Israel has begun a ground invasion of Gaza suggest markets are likely to retain a cautious tone at the start of the new week.
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.
Markets Today – You Drive Me Nervous
US equities are lower led by the tech heavy NASDAQ index and not helped by a new surge in UST yields. The USD extended yesterday’s gains with the AUD at the bottom of the G10 board, reversing its post CPI gains.
FX Market Update – 25th October 2023
The AUD experienced a volatile month in September spending some time above USD 0.6500 before testing levels below 0.6300 in the early part of October.
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Markets Today – European Disappointment
Weaker European PMIs, and potentially some unwind of yesterday’s move, have seen a stronger US dollar the main mover overnight, up 0.7% on the DXY.
Markets Today – Good Mood (in bonds at least)
A quiet night for data, but a big night for bonds.
Markets Today – Close but no Cigar
Close but no cigar – US 10 year bonds traded to as high as 4.99% on Friday
Markets Today – Carefully
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment
Markets Today – Wait and See
Higher US yields and 'risk-off' tone see AUD's hard-fought gains undone
Markets Today – Here I Go Again
Strong US retail sales sees yields rocket – 10yr yield +14bps to 4.84%
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful
Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]
Podcast
Markets Today – Curse Of The Curves
US CPI reverses much of the earlier week market moves
Markets Today – Be Alright
Global markets were relatively stable overnight ahead of tonight’s key risk event of US CPI.
Markets Today – Hong Kong Garden
Lower US bond yields and softer US dollar lift AUD back above 0.64
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
Reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict triggers a spike in energy prices while German Bunds lead a rally in European bonds with US Treasury futures also pointing to a decline in US Treasury yields. Not all the initial moves have been sustained. The USD is little changed, AUD is up, after being down with Fed speakers favouring holding rather than hiking rates, helping US equities rally while European shares fall.
Markets Today – It’s Oh So Quiet
Markets mark time ahead of payrolls tonight. Core global yields trade in narrow ranges, the USD loses a bit of altitude while US equities end the day little changed.
Markets Today – Breathe
The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning (JOLT)
A better-than-expected US JOLT report provided rattled markets. US Treasuries led a rise in core global bond yields, equities traded lower and the USD was stronger. USD/JPY gapped lower ( official intervention?) and AUD was the notable underperformer.
The AUD in September 2023
The AUD/USD’s 1.9 cents range in September was the narrowest since the 1.74 cents October 2019 range. Still, the USD was in the driving seat, fuelled by “higher for longer” Fed messaging.
Markets Today – Pour It Up
The sell-off in global bonds continued with fresh cycle highs being set for longer-term yields. The
Markets Today – Rocket Man
The BoE is the latest to put rates on hold. But are they done? JBWere’s Sally Auld says its not safe to assume it’s over for any central bank.
Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Todays podcast ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]
Markets Today – Snooze
It was a subdued market reaction to the highly anticipated US CPI print.
Markets Today – I’ll Oil Wells Love You
Ahead of US CPI tonight, oil prices have ratcheted higher as OPEC+ cuts continue to bite
Markets Today – Breathe
Todays podcast Tesla leads gains within in US equities Core global yields tick higher USD broadly weaker with JPY and CNY the notable movers JPY gains following Ueda’s interview suggesting openness to policy move this year CNY gains on PBoC strong fix, push against speculators and better data AUD and NZD benefit from spill over […]
Markets Today – Nothing Gonna Break my Stride
US equities manage a marginal gain on Friday, but lower over the week and yields edge higher.
Markets Today – Slow Ride
Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.
Markets Today – Top of the World
A rise in Services activity last month confirms the US economy still sits firmly on top of the world
AMW – Labour Markets – Progress on rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia
In this Weekly, we take stock of progress rebalancing labour markets in the US and Australia, finding significant progress has been made on a range of indicators even without a sizeable lift in unemployment rates
Markets Today – Constant Repeat
A softer Caixin Services PMI soured the mood yesterday, with the USD broadly stronger and the AUD the worst G10 performer
Markets Today – Holiday
It has been a quiet start to the week in Europe and the US with the latter out celebrating Labor Day. US equity futures closed little changed while US Treasury futures are pointing to some small upside pressure on yields.
Markets Today – The Best
Neither the Fed nor President Biden could have scripted Friday’s US payrolls report any better had they tried
The AUD in August 2023
The AUD have an ‘average’ August in terms of its monthly hi-lo range, albeit it fell to a near 10-month beneath 64 cents
Markets Today – ‘Aint No Mountain High Enough (or is there?)
Overnight, the BoE’s Pill references ‘Matterhorn’ versus ‘Table Top Mountain’ approaches to monetary policy
Markets Today – Hot and Cold
US equities extend their positive run to a fourth consecutive day with softer US economic data fuelling expectations of a Fed on hold over coming months. UST yields edged lower while European yields rose following stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data releases. The USD lost ground against EU pairs while the AUD is little changed.
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.
Markets Today – Waltzing Matilda(s)
Aussie retail sales were stronger than expected in July, but World Cup fever was a factor says NAB’s Ray Attrill
Markets Today – Play it Safe
Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole did not break new ground. US equities closed the day in positive territory with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their first positive week since July. The UST curve flatten with front end yields ticking higher while the USD closed a tad stronger.
Markets Today – Artificial Light
Caution prevails in front of Jackson Hole; stocks down, bond yields back up, AUD back lower
Markets Today – Falling
Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.
Markets Today – Marking Time
US equities traded in and out of positive territory, essentially marking time ahead of NVIDIA’s reporting tomorrow and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. It was also a quiet FX session while in rates 10y UST yields printed a fresh 16-year high before consolidating.
Markets Today – Back to the Grind
US yields resumed their grind higher to start the new week, though there was little news to speak of, while US equities where higher.
Markets Today – I Got You Babe
Yields lower on Friday, but still close to recent cycle highs
Markets Today – Doom Loop
It’s been onwards and upwards for global bond yields overnight, and AUD has spent time below 64 cents
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]
Markets Today – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A stark contrast Tuesday between strong US retail sales and very weak China data
Markets Today – When it rains it pours
US equities started the new week on a positive note, notwithstanding a negative lead from Asia. Core global yields have continued their ascendancy while the USD is broadly stronger with negative China sentiment weighing on the AUD and NZD
Markets Today – No Green Light
A higher-than-expected US PPI print contributed to higher yields, while equities ended the week on a muted note.
Markets Today – I Ain’t Worried
US Core CPI just 0.160% m/m and 3m annualised rate now 3.1%
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Ahead of the July US CPI release tonight US equities closed on the back foot. Oil prices extend recent gains while LNG prices surge following news Australian workers vote to strike. Quiet night in FX land.
Markets Today – Sour Candy
Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.
Markets Today – Holiday
Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.
Markets Today – Soft Parade
Bond sell-off reverses on softer US payrolls
Markets Today – Schadenfreude
BoE lifts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, to limited market reaction. US payrolls tonight
Markets Today – Higher Ground
Yields rise, US 10yr hits 4.12% before easing back to 4.08%, highest since Nov 2022
Markets Today – Pump It
The US Treasury curve bear steepened following news the US government will increase its bond issuance by more than previously thought. US equities recorded small declines and the USD is stronger across the board with the AUD the notable underperformer, RBA on hold and underwhelming China data not helpful.
The AUD in July 2023
US, China and local inflation news drove much of the AUD volatility in July
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).
Markets Today – Big in Japan (or perhaps not)
Friday’s BoJ announcements made a bigger initial impression on global bond markets than FX
Markets Today – Better than you
Not much reaction to the ECB, says NAB’s David de Garis, but a big reaction in currencies and Treasurys to the latest US GDP numbers. With a lot of European data today and early next week, things could stay quite ‘whippy’.
Markets Today – The Last Time (or not)
The US FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25-5.50% as universally expected.
Markets Today – Devil Inside
AUD approaches 0.68, buoyed by China stimulus news and RMB gains
Markets Today – Shivers
Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.
Markets Today – Workin’ For A Livin’
US yields higher with Jobless Claims lower than expected
Markets Today – Good thing
Another bond rally, this time in the UK with inflation coming in softer than expected.
Markets Today – You’re the Voice
Central bankers globally seem to have switched to a more measured tone recently. Overnight tapas
Markets Today – Slow and low
Underwhelming China economic data has weighed on sentiment, mostly in Asia and Europe with a decline in CNY also spilling over to NZD and AUD. Core global yields are a tad lower while US equities have resumed their upward trajectory.
Markets Today – Getting better
A bear flattening of the UST curve post a better than expected University of Michigan survey so the S&P 500 closed marginal lower while the USD found some support.
Markets Today – Cold day in the sun
After the softer US CPI print on Wednesday the cooling US economy narrative was further supported overnight by a softer than expected US PPI print. Megacaps have led gains in US equities while front end bonds have led a decline in UST yields. The USD is broadly weaker with several FX pairs breaking through key support/resistant levels.
Markets Today – Paradise
Yields tumbled and risk assets soared as US CPI came in much softer than expected
Markets Today – Waiting for the night
Ahead of the all-important US CPI release tonight, US equities edged higher again overnight while the UST curve flattened driven by an uptick in front end yields. The USD is broadly weaker, but the AUD has been unable to perform.
Markets Today – Slower but far from slow
Payrolls failed to deliver the upside surprise feared following strong data earlier in the week, seeing some pullback in the USD and short-end yields on Friday.
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.
Markets Today – Should I Stay or Should I Go
A quiet night overnight given shortened pre-holiday trade in the US ahead of Independence Day today.
The AUD in June 2023
The AUD/USD price action in June was a story of two halves. Soft US data and a cash rate hike by the RBA helped propel the currency to an intra-month high of 69c, but then concerns over China’s growth outlook and better than expected US data releases weighed in the second half of the month.
Markets Today – One swallow does not a summer make
Friday capped a risk positive end to the week and the month of June with softer US economic data releases treated as good news. Weaker US consumer spending and inflation boosted US equities with gains over 1%, US Treasury yields traded lower after the data release and the USD closed the week broadly weaker.
Markets Today – Don’t Stop Me Now
The string of positive US data surprises continued overnight with a big drop in Jobless claims and a decent upward revision to Q1 GDP. US Treasuries led a jump in core global bond yields and US equities closed in the green, unperturbed by the move up in yields. Positive US data surprises help the USD reverse earlier losses, but the AUD/USD held its ground aided by yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures.
Markets Today – I Knew You Were Trouble
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views; BoJ reiterates dovish stance
Markets Today – Better in the U.S.A.
Better than expected US data releases and hawkish ECB talk are two main macro themes from the price actions overnight. US equities embraced the positive vibes from Asia and then better than expected US data releases provided an additional tail wind. In contrast, European equities were little changed with hawkish ECB talk dampening the mood. The belly of the curve led a rise in UST yields while the USD lost a bit of ground.
AMW – What assumptions to use for my 2023-24 budget?
This week we examine some possible budget assumptions for Australian growth, inflation, wages, interest rates and the $A for 2023-24 as well as the context, thinking behind and risks to the forecasts
Markets Today – Against the Grain
Quiet start to week with no market fall-out from weekend Russia news. Weaker Yuan a focus.
Markets Today – PMI Slowdown
PMIs on Friday showed Eurozone output growth close to stalling, seeing Europe lead yields lower and the euro fall.
Markets Today – Fifty Fifty
The BoE surprises market with 50bps, Norges Bank less so with its 50bps. SNB opts for a ‘hawkish' 25bps
Markets Today – No relief
Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today
Markets Today – Weather With You
Soft risk sentiment overall last night which was mostly China driven.
Markets Today – You Look Certain (I’m Not So Sure)
European equity markets have started the new week on the back foot following a negative lead from Asia. Investors are seemingly disappointed by the lack of new news on China’s stimulus, US equities are closed for a holiday with futures contracts pointing to small dips for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.
Markets Today – King of the World
AUD ends a big if short local week at the top of the G10 currency pile, AUD/USD +2% w/w
Markets Today – Keep pushin’ on
US equities have pushed on yet again, shrugging off a string of soft US data releases. The ECB hiked its deposit rate as expected, lifted its inflation forecast and delivered a hawkish guidance. Core European yields climb on the back ECB news with the euro gaining over 1% while soft US data triggers a decline in UST yields with the USD weaker across the board.
ASFA supports our 11th Super FX hedging survey
Jamie Bonic, Head of FX Investor Sales APAC, and Ray Attrill, Head of FX Research, joined ASFA to discuss the launch of NAB’s Super FX hedging survey.
Markets Today – Two of a Kind
Fed pauses as expected but ‘dot plot’ adds two, not one, more rate rises to 2023
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.
Markets Today – Sitting, Waiting, Wishing
After closing modestly higher on Friday, US equities have started the new week with modest gains, led by big tech. 10y UK Gilts, up 10bps to 4.33%, are the notable movers within core global bond yields on the back of hawkish BoE talk. The USD is a tad higher with AUD retaining its upward trend that has been in place since the start of the month. Oil prices tumble on supply-demand dynamics and another downgrade by GS.
Markets Today – When Bad Does Good
Jump in US jobless claims supports lowers US yields and US$; S&P500 back in bull market
Markets Today – My [Hikes] Will Go On
The BoC shocked markets overnight, hiking by 25bps to 4.75%.
Markets Today – Consequences
It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.
Markets Today – Rebel Without a Pause?
Markets go into today’s RBA decision ascribing a roughly 65% chance to a pause
Markets Today – Feelin’ Good
A combination of a US debt ceiling resolution alongside a mixed US jobs report, still favouring a June Fed pause, and news that China may be considering further support to its beleaguered property sector boosted risk sentiment (VIX sub-15), major equity indices closed the week with solid gain.
Markets Today – Mr Brightside
A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).
The AUD in May 2023
The AUD fell below 65 cents in May, in doing so re-establishing a more ‘normal’ monthly trading range after two months of highly compressed volatility.
Markets Today – Pause for Thought
The AUD had fallen to a new post November 2022 following more disappointing China data
NAB Superannuation FX hedging survey set for launch
NAB presents detailed insights into superannuation investment behaviours and trends in our comprehensive survey of Australian Superannuation Funds undertaken every two years and opening again for 2023.
Markets Today – Mixed Signals
After enjoying a long weekend, the US is back with mixed signals coming from equities and bond markets. US Treasuries have led a move lower in core global bond yields while the S&P 500 is unchanged. Oil prices fall over 4% with OPEC + meeting looming large, the USD is little changed, but AUD and NZD struggle, not helped by Yuan weakness.
Markets Today – Holiday
Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.
Markets Today – Now That I Found You
US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.
Markets Today – Diamond in the rough
The US dollar extended its positive streak and yields globally were higher despite mixed economic data as AI-related tech saw US equites higher
Markets Today – The Price You Pay
Still no sign of breakthrough on US debt ceiling talks, souring risk sentiment.
Markets Today – Tug of War
The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of significant market moves.
Markets Today – Road to Nowhere
US equities struggled for direction on Friday, ending the day marginally lower. After a choppy session, UST yields closed higher across the curve with the USD broadly weaker, ending a three-day winning streak. Debt impasse did not helping sentiment while Fed Chair Powell expressed a bias for pausing rate hikes in June.
Markets Today – High Hopes
Hopes for a deal on the debt ceiling improved.
Markets Today – Waiting on the World to Change
A quiet start to the week with little in the way of new news or top-tier data.
Markets Today – Comeback Kid
Markets were spoked on Friday by an unexpected rise in US consumer inafltion expectations
Markets Today – Dead Man’s Curve
Latest US yield curve movements are giving an even stronger signal of imminent US recession
Markets Today – Could this be enough?
US yields were lower and the dollar stronger with the FOMC increasing rates by 25bp as expected and dropping the expectation for further hikes.
Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.
Markets Today – Resolution
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.
The AUD in April 2023
After reducing to just a 2.2 cents range in March, April’s AUD/USD range was little different – 2.3 cents
Markets Today – A lot to digest
The last trading day of April had a lot to digest with BoJ policy decision alongside market moving data both in Europe and the US. Equities ended the month on a positive move, core yields drifted lower amid growth concerns while the USD was little changed. JPY was the big underperformer and AUD starts the new week at 0.6601.
Markets Today – Where’s North from Here?
Softer US growth but stubbornly sticky prices has seen US yields higher, while US equities recorded their biggest gain since January.
Markets Today – No Help Coming
The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings versus Financials (and the rest) which are buffeted by banking uncertainty and recession fears. Core global yields are higher and the USD is weaker largely reflecting EU FX outperformance while the AUD has led a commodity linked FX decline.
Markets Today – First (Republic) Time
Us equities haven fallen sharply, bond yields are lower and AUD/USD is back near 0.66, ahead of CPI this morning.
Markets Today – Titanium
A quiet end to a choppy week, with some intra-day volatility following stronger than expected PMIs.
Markets Today – The Reason
Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.
Markets Today – Shake it up
The RBA ‘Fit for the future’ review out this morning, with media saying Treasurer Chalmers accepts all 51 recommendations
Markets Today – Some like it hot
A quiet overnight session despite the plethora of earnings reports.
Markets Today – Empire State of Mind
The uplift in US bond yields continued overnight, supporting the US dollar but not hurting equities
Markets Today – Is it really so bad?
Stronger than expected US data pushed US yields higher and supported a broadly stronger US dollar on Friday.
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]
Markets Today – Good, but good enough?
US treasuries retraced most of their post-CPI rally overnight with core CPI coming in as expected.
Markets Today – Waiting for you
It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).
Markets Today – The Shock of the Lightning JOLT
A softer than expected JOLT report shook the market overnight, triggering a bull steeping in the UST. The USD fell with JPY along with European currencies outperforming. Commodity linked currencies lagged the move with AUD the notable underperformer, following yesterday’s RBA decision to pause it tightening cycle. US equities ended a four day rally with pro-cyclical sectors underperforming.
Markets Today – Stick or Twist
Weak US Manufacturing survey data overnight reversed the impact of higher oil prices, leaving bond yields lower and the AUD higher. It’s all about the RBA today
Constructing a net zero investment strategy
A NAB panel explores the practical implications involved for superannuation funds in their net zero investment ambitions.
Report
The AUD in March 2023
Following two months of well above-average ranges, the AUD/USD range reduced to just 2.2 cents in March, though the currency did hit a 4-month low of 0.6565.
Markets Today – Love so soft
A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).
Markets Today – What’s old is new again
It’s a third successive day of relative calm across markets, though an upside surprise to German CPI has seen European yields push higher.
Markets Today – It’s All Good
The positive vibes evident during our trading session yesterday have extended overnight with European and US equity indices higher on the day. Movements in rates and FX markets have been more subdued. The USD is a tad stronger in index terms with JPY the notable underperformer. AUD and NZD are also lower with the former not helped by a yesterday’s softer than expected monthly CPI print.
Markets Today – Relative Calm
There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.
Markets Today – Everything’s Gonna be Alright
Bond yields are sharply higher overnight, improved sentiment towards the banking sector one key driver
Markets Today – Night of hunters
Deutsche Bank woes weighted on European equities and on US equities at the open, but the latter enjoyed a decent rebound before the close. Core global yields ended Friday lower across the board , the USD was broadly stronger , but still fell for a third consecutive week, AUD and NZD were the week’s underperformers.
Markets Today – Janet
After a positive start, US equities struggled for direction amid lingering banking stability concerns. Front end tenors have led a decline in UST yields with similar price action seen in European curves. BoE, SNB and Norges Bank deliver on expected rate hikes. AUD gives back earlier gains as equities struggle.
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.
Markets Today – Glass half full ahead of the FOMC
Todays podcast VIX tumbles as investors see the glass half full ahead of FOMC early tomorrow morning Banks lead gains in Equities with HG bond issuance also signalling improvement in risk appetite UST and Bund curves bear flatten as market increases Fed and ECB rate hikes expectations 2y UST jump 20bps, 10y UST gain […]
Markets Today – So Yesterday
It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.
Markets Today – Shotgun Wedding
A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for CHF3.0bn, a fraction of its value at Friday’s close. Iitial market response, in FX at least, has been (cautiously) favourable.
Markets today – ECB sticks to its guns (sort of)
The ECB delivered on its 50bps rate promise but scraps forward guidance. Meanwhile the US’ First Republic Bank gets a $30bn deposit injection from other banks
Markets Today – Panic on the dance floor
Banking sector turmoil is back to the fore driving all markets, today centred on Credit Suisse.
Markets Today – Are we out of the woods yet?
Bond yields rose sharply on the developing assessment of turmoil in US banking, helped by but largely overshadowing a stubbornly strong US CPI.
Markets Today – Bank Turmoil
Reassurances from US authorities not enough yet to appease markets. Bank stocks remain under pressure with bond yields diving as the path of future Fed hikes comes into question. The USD is also weaker across the board.
Markets Today: All for the lack of tuppence
The collapse of SVB, the 16th largest bank in the US with $209bn in assets (as at 31 Dec 2022), shook markets on Thursday and Friday. That
Markets Today – The Times They Are A-Changin’?
Jump in US jobless claims provides hope US labour market may be cooling while Challenger layoff data suggests there is more weakness ahead Softer US data triggers rally in UST and weakens the USD. AUD struggles to perform as US equities tumble with bank stocks leading the decline.
Markets Today – Get Set
Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.
Markets Today: Warning Sign
The market was not prepared for Powell’s hawkish remarks, sending short rates and the USD higher and equities lower.
Markets Today: Hawkish Holzmann
Hawkish comments from ECB’s Holzmann send European yields higher in an otherwise quiet night for news flow
Markets Today: I Feel Better
The US dollar and Treasury yields both fell back on Friday in what was a good day for equities everywhere – except Australia.
Markets Today: (No) Resistance
The run of worse than expected (global) inflation-related news continues to ripple through markets, the latest culprits being core Eurozone CPI and revised US Q4 unit labour costs.
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday
The AUD in February 2023
AUD performance in February was an almost exact mirror image of January, AUD/USD trading back down to near 67 cents from above 0.71 cents, having risen from sub-0.67 to above 0.71 in January.
Markets Today: I won’t back down
Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.
Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me
A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.
Markets Today: Too Hot
The US economy has started 2023 from a stronger position that many of us had expected and when looking at the Fed’s new preferred inflation reading that tries to exclude much of the noise in the data, the story doesn’t change.
Markets Today: Edgy
US equities stage a late recovery, but remain edgy
Markets Today: Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
The flow of economic data surprises has continued overnight and this time it was a uniformly stronger than expected performance of the services sector across major Developed Market economies.
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NAB researchers have undertaken a detailed review of a large sample of the portfolio holdings disclosure (PHD) data made available in 2022 under regulatory changes for the industry.
Report
The AUD in January 2023
AUD/USD began the year at 0.6802 and ended January at 0.7056, a 2.5 cents or 3.7% gain.
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).
Markets Today: US stocks hit by reality check, Aussie CPI today
European and US PMIs were the main data flow overnight.
Markets Today: Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tech stocks lead gains in US equities. NASDAQ up just under 2%.
Markets Today: Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
5% Netflix post-earnings pop helps drive best day for S&P500 in two weeks
Markets Today: Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
USD softer despite ‘risk-off’ market tone.
Markets Today: Central banks hold out despite weaker data
Very weak US retail and industrial production adds to the tumble in yields
MT: Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
As the market waits for the BoJ policy decision today, the ECB has been the market mover overnight following a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Bank may be turning less hawkish.
MT: Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
US out for MLK day holiday. S&P futures little changed
Markets Today: Quietly confident
US equities managed to claw back into the green on Friday to extend the strong start to the year.
Markets Today: Heading in the right direction
US CPI cools as expected, but with even more encouraging details.
Markets Today: Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Ahead of CPI tonight US Treasuries (and bonds globally) have rallied, 10-year US notes off 5bps (3bps of that seen in the Tokyo session) and 2s down just under 2bps.
Markets Today: Early year optimism
Economic news flow overnight has been relatively light, though playing with the grain of the suggestion from last week’s US data (ISM Services) that the US is in process of losing its global growth leadership position.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
BoJ stuns markets with a 0% YCC tolerance band widening…
The AUD in December 2022
AUD/USD ended Dec 2022 much as it started. For 2022 overall, AUD/USD lost 6.2% which was the the second biggest annual range of the past decade, exceeded only in the 2020 first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Markets Today: Big in Japan
The BoJ thus takes out our award for the most unpredictable central bank of 2022.
Markets Today: Last minutes before Christmas
Equity sentiment has not been helped by a decent sell-off in core global bonds.
MT: US services slide; China promises a J-curve recovery
Recession risks were highlighted on Friday with the US S&P Global Services PMI again in contractionary territory.
Markets Today: Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Hawkish ECB rhetoric post 50bps rate rise spooks risk markets
Markets Today: Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Early this morning and in line with market expectations the Fed lifted the funds rate by 0.5% to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, a rates level not seen since 2007. The 50bps increase was a downshift following four consecutive hikes of 75bps.
MT: Christmas comes early with cooler US inflation
CPI comes in cool at 0.1% m/m and 7.1% y/y, two tenths below consensus
MT: US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
A distinctly cautious air prevails in front of tonight’s all-important US CPI release and tomorrow’s FOMC.
MT: US producer prices spark inflation worries ahead of the Fed
Solid US PPI cements apprehension ahead of the US CPI & FOMC
MT: Slight risk bounce as US markets “clutch at straws”
It was a quiet night for markets devoid of any top-tier data or news flow ahead of key risk events next week (of US CPI, FOMC, ECB).
Markets Today: Bouncebackability
The Bank of Canada rose 50bps, the sixth consecutive increase, and took the target rate to 4.25%.
MT: No surprises from RBA but BoC on a knife-edge
The RBA increased interest rates by 25bp to 3.1% and continues to guide that “the Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead".
Markets Today: Fed’s terminal rate, heading higher?
WSJ’s Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos wrote overnight if CPI on Tuesday comes in hot then the Fed could consider another 50bp increase in February.
Markets Today: The Central Bank Dilemma – is it working?
The dollar was softer and US yields lower over the past week as markets both pared terminal rate pricing and priced in more cuts from mid 2023.
MT: What did markets like about Powell’s speech?
Markets hold, and more importantly extend yesterday’s post-Powell moves.
The AUD in November 2022
The AUD ended the month in the ascendency, boosted by a less hawkish than feared Fed Chair Powell speech, forcing a broad USD retreat.
Markets Today: Powell slightly less than very hawkish
Markets were relatively muted ahead of Powell’s remarks with US yields and the Dollar were tracking a little higher and equities a little weaker.
MT: China calms down, European inflation eases
China vaccination push sees Hang Seng gains extended to 5%+ by the close
Markets Today: ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
In a quitter session, relative to recent times, the risk positive vibes have extended into a third consecutive day with higher global equity markets, lower global rates and a weaker USD.
MT: Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
The single biggest piece of market-moving economic news overnight has come via the US S&P Global PMIs, which slumped to 47.6 from 50.4, well below the 50.0 consensus.
Markets Today: One more pivot before Thanksgiving
US equity investors are certainly looking at the glass half full ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow with all major equity indices showing decent gains on the day.
Markets Today: Oil, more or less?
Oil market volatility is showing no signs of let-up , Brent crude down to a low of $83 overnight on a Wall Street Journal report suggesting Saudi Arabia was contemplating a 500,000 barrels per day production increase from December.
Markets Today: A rare dull day
Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.
Markets Today: Tighter than ever
US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.
Markets Today: A step too far
It has been a wild night in markets. After initially enjoying a broad and solid risk on move with equity markets rising and core global bond yields falling alongside a broadly weaker USD
Markets Today: A slight reality check
The new week has begun with a small reversal in the some of the risk positive moves recorded last week, particularly in FX markets and US Treasuries while equity market are showing resilience.
Markets Today: False Hopes?
US CPI, US political gridlock (maybe) and China covid policy tweaks...
Markets Today: A welcome relief
It has been a super risk positive night courtesy of a big downward surprise in the US CPI release.
Markets Today: Inflation Day
Republican ‘red wave’ failed to materialise, but still expect slim House majority
Markets Today: Downturns, mid-terms, no U-turns
The NAB Business Survey showed Conditions falling just one point to +22 to remain at very elevated levels, above the pre-pandemic highs for the series.
Markets Today: An end to China’s Zero COVID, or not?
Speculation about China reopening continues to add some market volatility with WSJ reporting Chinese leaders were considering reopening steps getting some notice.
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.
Markets Today: A Tale of Two Britains
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting continues to reverberate through markets.
MT: No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
FOMC Statement hints at reduced pace of tightening ahead…
Markets Today: Slow and steady wins the race
It has been a volatile session in markets with risk assets initially lifted by rumours China was looking at phasing out its zero-covid policy, only for Beijing to later deny the speculation.
The AUD in October 2022
Australia specific influences on AUD once again played second fiddle to broader USD volatility and swings in risk sentiment.
Markets Today: The Bank That Stops Inflation, eventually
NAB has pencilled in a 25bp hike, we also think there is a real risk that the RBA hikes by 50bps, and that this risk is higher than the 22% chance that markets are currently pricing.
MT: Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Big gains in US equities on Friday help extend rally for a second week
MT: ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk
The ECB meeting was the big event for markets last night and as expected the Bank delivered a 75bps hike, but it sounded less committal on future rate hikes.
Markets Today: Cries of ‘Pivot!’ as BoC slows hikes
Yields are generally lower globally as the earlier run up in expectations for central bank tightening are pared a little further. A hike of ‘only’ 50bp from the BoC helping that sentiment.
MT: Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Last night’s first Federal Budget under Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers contained no fireworks, falling fully in line with pre-Budget media briefings.
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.
MT: Fed might ease off, Boris might jump back in
Friday’s offshore markets produced as many fireworks as we have seen on just about any day this year with the mere suggestion of the Fed stepping down from 75bps to a 50bps incremental rate hike in December producing a fierce rally in US equities.
Markets Today: The battle for Britain
Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.
Markets Today: Tails(s) Wag Dog(s)
The selloff in bonds has seen a ‘reversal of the reversal’.
Markets Today: Brits Big U Turn, America Buys the Dip
Another big UK fiscal U-turn and positive earnings from BofA boosted global risk appetite last night.
Markets Today: Where does it end?
Rise in 1y ahead US inflation expectations spooks markets
MT: Massive swings as US inflation stays high
Volatile overnight session sees risk on, risk off then risk on again
Markets Today: Less jobs before Fed stops
UK markets remain at the epicentre of global market volatility
Markets Today: Don’t panic Mr. Bailey
Bailey in Washington says bond purchases will end as scheduled on Friday
Markets Today: Gloomy and more uncertain
Risk aversion has dominated the start of the new week amid heighted geopolitical tensions and a market disillusioned by credible BoE support for the Gilts market.
Markets Today: Tight labour, hawkish banks, angry Putin
It was ‘good news is bad news’ for US Payrolls which were a touch better than expected and seen as too solid to support a pivot narrative.
Markets Today: Even less pivot hope, from Paris
In Australia there are two macro developments worth watching, Seek new job ads and Consumption imports in the August trade balance.
MT: Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Another volatile session in markets; US equities opened lower, not helped by anticipated news of a bigger oil cut supply agreement by OPEC +.
Markets Today: Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Yesterday 25bps RBA cash rate rise, defied the broad consensus among economists and investors (~45bps was priced in for the meeting) but which was justified by the Board in part on the premise that “the cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time”.
The AUD in September 2022
The AUD/USD high of 0.6916 came on the 13th and the low of 0.6363 on the 29th (last day of the month).
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.
Markets Today: No slowdown yet: Euro inflation and US core PCE
US equites fall on Friday to close out a 3rd consecutive negative quarter
MT: UK calmer, US stocks fall, yields rising, hawkish Fed/ECB
In a positive development the OBR will provide preliminary costings of the UK’s fiscal package on 7 October, instead of the previously signalled deadline of November 23 (the same day as the Budget).
Markets Today: UK ticked off by IMF, BoE goes back to QE
Bank of England has pledged to buy up to £5bn of longer dated gilts each day for up to 13 days (£65bn total) with a motive of protecting the UK pension industry.