Key highlights:

• Partial data for Q1 point to solid GDP growth, albeit slower than the robust pace of H2 2023.
• We have marked up our GDP forecasts for 2024 to 2.4% (from 2.1%) and revised down 2025 a notch (1.3% from 1.4%).
• Inflation data moderated in February but were still on the high side, as was the March CPI, disappointing Fed hopes of achieving ‘greater confidence’ that inflation is tracking back to 2%. That said, we still consider that the conditions are in place for inflation to ease from here.
• We continue to expect that the Fed will cut rates this year, but we now see September as a more likely start date (previously June).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (12 April 2024)