Key highlights

• The largest quarterly fall in GDP since 2008 occurred in Q1 GDP.
• As this mainly reflected the impact of COVID-19 containment measures that ramped up towards the end of March, there is almost certainly going to be a far larger decline in Q2.
• With many households and businesses severely impacted, the likelihood of ongoing caution and only a gradual easing in containment restrictions, it will be a long-time before the economy recovers to its pre-virus level.
• We are forecasting the US economy to contract by 7.4% in 2020 before growing by 6.8% in 2021.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – April 2020.