Key highlights

• Growth is set to bounce back in Q3, but the recovery lost momentum through July/August following a surge in COVID-19 cases and reimposition of some restrictions. More positively, case numbers have declined since late July.
• We still expect that a full recovery will take a long time.
• The Fed has moved to flexible average inflation targeting, reinforcing our expectation that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at least through to end-2022.
• Fiscal policy and the future path of the virus remain key risks.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – August 2020.