Downside risks have eased following the US-China Phase One trade deal and with Congress set to approve spending bills to fund the Government.
Incoming data point to on-going growth in the economy; while consumer spending has slowed, household sector fundamentals remain solid. Business investment is likely to remain under pressure but housing investment is improving.
We expect the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although the risk is that they will have to ease policy further.