Key highlights

• US GDP grew by 2.3% in 2019, still above its longer-term potential growth rate, but down on the 2018 pace.
• While we are assuming Q1 growth will likely be impacted by Boeing production cuts and Coronavirus, with some bounce back in subsequent quarters, there is a risk that the virus impact will be more significant and prolonged.
• We expect GDP growth a little above its trend rate over 2020/2021 and the Fed to remain on hold; however, the risks are skewed to the downside (lower growth/rate cuts).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – February 2020