US Economic Update – February 2020

US economy travelling well but Coronavirus clouds the outlook.

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Key highlights

  • US GDP grew by 2.3% in 2019, still above its longer-term potential growth rate, but down on the 2018 pace.
  • While we are assuming Q1 growth will likely be impacted by Boeing production cuts and Coronavirus, with some bounce back in subsequent quarters, there is a risk that the virus impact will be more significant and prolonged.
  • We expect GDP growth a little above its trend rate over 2020/2021 and the Fed to remain on hold; however, the risks are skewed to the downside (lower growth/rate cuts).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – February 2020