US Economic Update: July 2017
Following a slow start to the year, GDP growth looks to have accelerated in the June quarter.
- After a slow start to the year, partial activity measures point to GDP growth rebounding in the June quarter.
- Business surveys, and our forecasts, point to a continuation of moderate above trend GDP growth.
Overview
The key driver is stronger consumption growth, while business investment growth has slowed, but still remains in positive territory. Housing investment appears to have softened markedly while net exports likely detracted from growth.
GDP growth in the March quarter was again revised up in the statistician’s third estimate to 1.4% qoq (annualised rate), double the original estimate of 0.7%. This still represents relatively modest growth.
Our current estimate for the June quarter is growth of 2.7% qoq. If this were to eventuate it would mean that the economy grew by around 2.0% (annualised) in the first half of the year. This would still represent growth above estimates of its longer-term trend.
For further details please see the attached document
About the Author
Tony joined NAB early in 2011 from the Victorian Treasury where he worked for 12 years on a range of issues, including state budget strategy and forecasting state taxation revenues.
Before this, Tony was in the Commonwealth Treasury for a decade, where he undertook work on macroeconomic forecasting, microeconomic reform and debt management.
Tony grew up in Canberra and graduated (with first class honours) from the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from Macquarie University.
