Key highlights

• The rapid escalation in Coronavirus containment measures and the broader community reaction will see a major contraction in economic activity.
• For now, we are not forecasting a meaningful return to growth until Q4 2020 but this is highly conditional on when there is a substantial unwinding of containment measures.
• It also relies on policy successfully mitigating the negative second round effects from the immediate, containment related, fall in the economy which have the potential to cause a more protracted recession.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – March 2020.